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WHealth modelling: An individual-effects modelling methodology for improving the Health and Wealth of cities

WHealth 建模：改善城市健康和财富的个体效应建模方法

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L003201/1
负责人：
C J Webster
金额：
$ 25.27万
依托单位：
CARDIFF UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2013
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2013 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL003201%2F1
关键词：
WHealth modelling individual effects methodology

项目摘要

In a surprise neo-classical move, the city is re-emerging as a more appropriate scale of governance than the nation state for delivering many dimensions of social order. City governance delivers crucial interventions for achieving economic, social, health and environmental goals. However, the methodology underpinning much contemporary urban policy and planning research is unfit for purpose: there is a wide gulf between academic researchers and practitioners. Senior professionals, policy makers and government advisors find it difficult to obtain evidence-based answers to some of the most obvious questions relating to the configuration and governance of cities. For example, what effect does density have on health? What is the optimal scale and pattern for mixing housing for different income groups? How much green space should be supplied and in what pattern, to encourage active walking and reduce obesity?We propose that the fundamental knowledge-base guiding city-scale governance should come from statistical models of individual effects. These include well-formed statistical models of individual income, wealth, happiness, health and so on - (which we designate WHealth models). In the current phase of work for which we seek funding, we propose to concentrate on health as a primary focus and wealth as a secondary focus. This reflects data availability and the time and financial constraints of the funds on offer. In subsequent phases we expect to explore additional dimensions of wealth modelling and also 'happiness' impacts as extensive databases on quality of life become more available.Using our own innovative network-modelling software (spatial Domain Network Analysis - sDNA) to create very detailed measures of urban accessibility, and borrowing methodology from epidemiology, we propose to use multi-scale, multivariate statistical models to measure the impact of urban configurations (shape, density, road grid design, land-use mix etc) on obesity, mental health, cardio-vascular health and other conditions of individuals (statistically holding constant other determinants of health such as previous medical condition, socioeconomics and even genetics). We also measure the independent effects of policy designation areas and special fiscal and infrastructure programmes (such as regeneration schemes) in these models of individual health. The models will be based on a cohort of 500,000 people currently signed up for the UKBiobank study run from Oxford University, thus linking a world-class epidemiology and public health study to a state-of-art built-environment profiling study. This will deliver the best evidence available anywhere in the world for healthy city planning, policy and detailed design. Linked to the analysis of health, we will use similar models to measure the effects of urban policy and design on the wealth of individuals, measured via house prices. Doing this for the same cohort of 500,000 individuals gives a unique triangulation in the measurement of the individual 'well-being' effects of urban planning and policy on two key dimensions of urban life (health and wealth). It has the potential to fundamentally change the way urban policy and planning impact is thought about and measured in the UK and worldwide.

在令人惊讶的新古典主义举措中，城市正在重新出现，成为比民族国家更合适的治理规模，以实现社会秩序的许多方面。城市治理为实现经济、社会、健康和环境目标提供重要的干预措施。然而，支撑当代城市政策和规划研究的方法并不适合其目的：学术研究人员和实践者之间存在巨大鸿沟。高级专业人士、政策制定者和政府顾问发现，对于一些与城市配置和治理相关的最明显问题，很难获得基于证据的答案。例如，密度对健康有什么影响？不同收入群体混合住房的最佳规模和模式是什么？应该提供多少绿地以及以什么模式来鼓励积极步行和减少肥胖？我们建议指导城市规模治理的基础知识库应该来自个体效应的统计模型。其中包括个人收入、财富、幸福、健康等的完善统计模型（我们将其称为 WHealth 模型）。在我们现阶段寻求资助的工作中，我们建议以健康为首要重点，以财富为次要重点。这反映了数据的可用性以及所提供资金的时间和财务限制。在后续阶段，随着有关生活质量的广泛数据库变得更加可用，我们预计将探索财富建模的其他维度以及“幸福”影响。使用我们自己的创新网络建模软件（空间域网络分析 - sDNA）来创建非常详细的城市可达性衡量标准，并借鉴流行病学的方法，我们建议使用多尺度、多变量统计模型来衡量城市配置的影响（形状、密度、道路网格设计、土地利用组合等）对肥胖、心理健康、心血管健康和个人其他状况的影响（统计上保持恒定的其他健康决定因素，例如以前的医疗状况、社会经济甚至遗传学）。我们还衡量了这些个人健康模型中政策指定领域以及特殊财政和基础设施计划（例如再生计划）的独立影响。这些模型将基于目前报名参加牛津大学 UKBiobank 研究的 50 万人的队列，从而将世界一流的流行病学和公共卫生研究与最先进的建筑环境分析研究联系起来。这将为世界各地的健康城市规划、政策和详细设计提供最佳证据。与健康分析相关，我们将使用类似的模型来衡量城市政策和设计对通过房价衡量的个人财富的影响。对同一组 500,000 个人进行此研究，可以在衡量城市规划和政策对城市生活两个关键维度（健康和财富）的个人“福祉”影响方面提供独特的三角测量。它有可能从根本上改变英国和全世界思考和衡量城市政策和规划影响的方式。