WHealth modelling: An individual-effects modelling methodology for improving the Health and Wealth of cities

在一个令人惊讶的新古典主义举动中，这座城市正在重新成为比民族国家更合适的治理规模，以提供社会秩序的许多维度。城市治理为实现经济、社会、健康和环境目标提供了至关重要的干预措施。然而，支撑当代许多城市政策和规划研究的方法并不符合目的：学术研究人员和实践者之间存在着巨大的鸿沟。高级专业人士、政策制定者和政府顾问发现，对于与城市配置和治理有关的一些最明显的问题，很难获得基于证据的答案。例如，密度对健康有什么影响？不同收入群体混合住房的最佳规模和模式是什么？应该提供多少绿地，以什么模式，鼓励积极步行，减少肥胖？我们提出，指导城市规模治理的基本知识基础应该来自个体效应的统计模型。这些模型包括关于个人收入、财富、幸福感、健康等的结构良好的统计模型(我们称之为WHealth模型)。在我们寻求资金的当前工作阶段，我们建议将重点放在卫生问题上，把财富作为次要问题。这反映了数据的可获得性以及所提供资金的时间和资金限制。在接下来的几个阶段中，随着生活质量的广泛数据库变得更加可用，我们预计将探索财富建模的更多维度以及“幸福”的影响。使用我们自己的创新网络建模软件(空间域网络分析-sDNA)来创建非常详细的城市可达性衡量标准，并借鉴流行病学的方法，我们建议使用多尺度、多变量统计模型来衡量城市配置(形状、密度、道路网格设计、土地利用组合等)对肥胖、心理健康、心血管健康和其他个人状况的影响(统计上保持其他健康决定因素不变，如既往的医疗状况、社会经济甚至遗传因素)。我们还衡量了政策指定领域和特殊财政和基础设施方案(如再生计划)在这些个人健康模型中的独立影响。这些模型将基于目前注册了牛津大学英国生物库研究的50万人的队列，从而将一项世界级的流行病学和公共卫生研究与一项最先进的建筑环境特征研究联系起来。这将为健康的城市规划、政策和详细设计提供世界上任何地方可用的最佳证据。与健康分析相联系，我们将使用类似的模型来衡量城市政策和设计对个人财富的影响，通过房价来衡量。对同一组500,000人这样做，在衡量城市规划和政策对城市生活的两个关键维度(健康和财富)的个人幸福影响方面提供了独特的三角测量。它有可能从根本上改变英国和世界各地对城市政策和规划影响的思考和衡量方式。

In a surprise neo-classical move, the city is re-emerging as a more appropriate scale of governance than the nation state for delivering many dimensions of social order. City governance delivers crucial interventions for achieving economic, social, health and environmental goals. However, the methodology underpinning much contemporary urban policy and planning research is unfit for purpose: there is a wide gulf between academic researchers and practitioners. Senior professionals, policy makers and government advisors find it difficult to obtain evidence-based answers to some of the most obvious questions relating to the configuration and governance of cities. For example, what effect does density have on health? What is the optimal scale and pattern for mixing housing for different income groups? How much green space should be supplied and in what pattern, to encourage active walking and reduce obesity?We propose that the fundamental knowledge-base guiding city-scale governance should come from statistical models of individual effects. These include well-formed statistical models of individual income, wealth, happiness, health and so on - (which we designate WHealth models). In the current phase of work for which we seek funding, we propose to concentrate on health as a primary focus and wealth as a secondary focus. This reflects data availability and the time and financial constraints of the funds on offer. In subsequent phases we expect to explore additional dimensions of wealth modelling and also 'happiness' impacts as extensive databases on quality of life become more available.Using our own innovative network-modelling software (spatial Domain Network Analysis - sDNA) to create very detailed measures of urban accessibility, and borrowing methodology from epidemiology, we propose to use multi-scale, multivariate statistical models to measure the impact of urban configurations (shape, density, road grid design, land-use mix etc) on obesity, mental health, cardio-vascular health and other conditions of individuals (statistically holding constant other determinants of health such as previous medical condition, socioeconomics and even genetics). We also measure the independent effects of policy designation areas and special fiscal and infrastructure programmes (such as regeneration schemes) in these models of individual health. The models will be based on a cohort of 500,000 people currently signed up for the UKBiobank study run from Oxford University, thus linking a world-class epidemiology and public health study to a state-of-art built-environment profiling study. This will deliver the best evidence available anywhere in the world for healthy city planning, policy and detailed design. Linked to the analysis of health, we will use similar models to measure the effects of urban policy and design on the wealth of individuals, measured via house prices. Doing this for the same cohort of 500,000 individuals gives a unique triangulation in the measurement of the individual 'well-being' effects of urban planning and policy on two key dimensions of urban life (health and wealth). It has the potential to fundamentally change the way urban policy and planning impact is thought about and measured in the UK and worldwide.