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The Taliban's War: The Other Side of the Afghan Conflict, 2001-2015

塔利班战争：阿富汗冲突的另一面，2001-2015

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L008041/1
负责人：
Theo Farrell
金额：
$ 41.81万
依托单位：
King's College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL008041%2F1
关键词：
Taliban War Other Side Afghan

项目摘要

In a lightning war in 2001-02, the United States (with British support) invaded Afghanistan and removed the Taliban from power. Since then, the West has spent over a trillion dollars and well over a decade battling the Taliban and trying to rebuild the Afghan state. Despite this, the insurgency remains undefeated. In explaining this state of affairs, analysts have mostly focused on deficiencies in the international and Afghan effort. Lack of progress has been blamed on the failings of Western leadership and strategy, on the hubris and incoherence of the international community, on Afghan government corruption, and on flaws in the tactical conduct of operations.This project will examine the Afghanistan War from the Taliban perspective. Through oral history, we will reconstruct how the Taliban planned, fought and experienced the war. We will examine the evolution in Taliban strategy, structures and tactics since 2001. We will explore how the Taliban re-established itself in the south and the east from 2004 on, and steadily expanded its presence in the north and the west of the country. Finally, we will assess the impact of the withdrawal of international combat forces on the Taliban military campaign. Overall, we will assess Taliban adaptability in the conflict and the roots of Taliban resilience. The picture is an immensely complex one, with great local variation in the politics, pressures and personalities driving the conflict on the ground, and a dynamic interactions between various factions within the Taliban leadership and between the warring parties, international, Afghan and insurgent. The research team brings together three researchers with extensive in-country fieldwork experience and extensive expertise on Afghan and Western perspectives of the war. The project methodology has been tested in an ESRC-funded pilot study that reconstructed the Taliban campaign in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan from 2004-2012, using interviews with 53 Taliban commanders and 27 local elders.This project will expand that study to eight more provinces, covering all the regions of Afghanistan. Provinces have been selected for their importance to the Taliban, and to enable assessment of variation in terms of the impact of local dynamics, clerical support, geographical location, and other armed groups on the Taliban campaign. Using experienced Afghan field researchers, this project will conduct 275 interviews; 195 with Taliban commanders and cadres and 80 with local elders. The project also draws on the research team's own extensive research on the international military campaign and on Taliban shadow government.An innovative feature of this project is that in addition to studying the closing stages of the current conflict, it will also seek to positively shape the conflict endgame through engagement with senior Taliban leaders. This will build on two sets of ESRC funded talks with senior Taliban leaders; in July 2012 to explore Taliban perspectives on reconciliation and communicate these perspectives to Western policymakers, and in March 2013 to scope out the possibilities for ceasefires. The project will result in four high-quality publications; a book, two scholarly papers in leading academic journals, and an essay in the leading US policy journal. Interim project findings will inform Western policy from mid 2014 onwards; this is a critical year with the withdrawal of Western forces and the Afghan Presidential elections opening up the potential for progress in peace talks but equally the potential for an intensification in the conflict. Final project findings will also inform the learning of lessons from this war by Western militaries for doctrine and capability development and military education, and by wider policy communities for future Western military interventions.

在2001年至2002年的闪电战中，美国（在英国的支持下）入侵阿富汗，将塔利班赶下台。从那时起，西方已经花费了超过一万亿美元和十多年的时间与塔利班作战，并试图重建阿富汗国家。尽管如此，叛乱仍然不败。在解释这种状况时，分析家们主要集中在国际和阿富汗努力的不足之处。缺乏进展被归咎于西方领导层和战略的失败，国际社会的傲慢和不一致，阿富汗政府的腐败，以及行动的战术行为的缺陷。通过口述历史，我们将重建塔利班如何计划，战斗和经历战争。我们将审查自2001年以来塔利班战略、结构和战术的演变。我们将探讨塔利班如何从2004年起在南部和东部重新建立自己，并稳步扩大其在该国北部和西部的存在。最后，我们将评估国际作战部队撤出对塔利班军事行动的影响。总的来说，我们将评估塔利班在冲突中的适应能力以及塔利班复原力的根源。局势极为复杂，当地的政治、压力和个性差异很大，导致当地冲突，塔利班领导层内部各派别之间以及国际、阿富汗和叛乱交战各方之间的互动也很活跃。该研究小组汇集了三名研究人员，他们具有丰富的国内实地工作经验和对阿富汗和西方战争观点的广泛专业知识。该项目方法已在欧洲安全研究中心资助的一项试点研究中得到检验，该研究通过与53名塔利班指挥官和27名当地长老的访谈，重建了2004-2012年塔利班在阿富汗南部赫尔曼德省的活动，该项目将把这项研究扩大到另外8个省，涵盖阿富汗所有地区。各省是根据其对塔利班的重要性选定的，以便能够评估地方动态、办事员支助、地理位置和其他武装团体对塔利班运动的影响等方面的差异。该项目将利用经验丰富的阿富汗实地研究人员进行275次访谈，其中195次与塔利班指挥官和干部进行访谈，80次与当地长老进行访谈。该项目还借鉴了研究小组自己对国际军事行动和塔利班影子政府的广泛研究，该项目的一个创新特点是，除了研究当前冲突的最后阶段外，还将寻求通过与塔利班高级领导人接触，积极塑造冲突的最后阶段。这将建立在ESRC资助的与塔利班高级领导人的两次会谈的基础上; 2012年7月，探讨塔利班对和解的看法，并将这些看法传达给西方决策者; 2013年3月，探讨停火的可能性。该项目将产生四个高质量的出版物;一本书，两篇学术论文在领先的学术期刊，并在美国领先的政策杂志上的一篇文章。中期项目调查结果将为2014年年中以后的西方政策提供参考;这是关键的一年，西方部队的撤出和阿富汗总统选举为和平谈判取得进展开辟了可能性，但同样也有可能加剧冲突。最终项目结果还将为西方军队从这场战争中吸取教训提供信息，用于理论和能力发展以及军事教育，并为更广泛的政策界提供信息，用于未来的西方军事干预。