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The Taliban's War: The Other Side of the Afghan Conflict, 2001-2015

塔利班战争：阿富汗冲突的另一面，2001-2015

基本信息

批准号：
ES/L008041/2
负责人：
Theo Farrell
金额：
$ 5.42万
依托单位：
City, University of London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL008041%2F2
关键词：
Taliban War Other Side Afghan

项目摘要

In a lightning war in 2001-02, the United States (with British support) invaded Afghanistan and removed the Taliban from power. Since then, the West has spent over a trillion dollars and well over a decade battling the Taliban and trying to rebuild the Afghan state. Despite this, the insurgency remains undefeated. In explaining this state of affairs, analysts have mostly focused on deficiencies in the international and Afghan effort. Lack of progress has been blamed on the failings of Western leadership and strategy, on the hubris and incoherence of the international community, on Afghan government corruption, and on flaws in the tactical conduct of operations.This project will examine the Afghanistan War from the Taliban perspective. Through oral history, we will reconstruct how the Taliban planned, fought and experienced the war. We will examine the evolution in Taliban strategy, structures and tactics since 2001. We will explore how the Taliban re-established itself in the south and the east from 2004 on, and steadily expanded its presence in the north and the west of the country. Finally, we will assess the impact of the withdrawal of international combat forces on the Taliban military campaign. Overall, we will assess Taliban adaptability in the conflict and the roots of Taliban resilience. The picture is an immensely complex one, with great local variation in the politics, pressures and personalities driving the conflict on the ground, and a dynamic interactions between various factions within the Taliban leadership and between the warring parties, international, Afghan and insurgent. The research team brings together three researchers with extensive in-country fieldwork experience and extensive expertise on Afghan and Western perspectives of the war. The project methodology has been tested in an ESRC-funded pilot study that reconstructed the Taliban campaign in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan from 2004-2012, using interviews with 53 Taliban commanders and 27 local elders.This project will expand that study to eight more provinces, covering all the regions of Afghanistan. Provinces have been selected for their importance to the Taliban, and to enable assessment of variation in terms of the impact of local dynamics, clerical support, geographical location, and other armed groups on the Taliban campaign. Using experienced Afghan field researchers, this project will conduct 275 interviews; 195 with Taliban commanders and cadres and 80 with local elders. The project also draws on the research team's own extensive research on the international military campaign and on Taliban shadow government.An innovative feature of this project is that in addition to studying the closing stages of the current conflict, it will also seek to positively shape the conflict endgame through engagement with senior Taliban leaders. This will build on two sets of ESRC funded talks with senior Taliban leaders; in July 2012 to explore Taliban perspectives on reconciliation and communicate these perspectives to Western policymakers, and in March 2013 to scope out the possibilities for ceasefires. The project will result in four high-quality publications; a book, two scholarly papers in leading academic journals, and an essay in the leading US policy journal. Interim project findings will inform Western policy from mid 2014 onwards; this is a critical year with the withdrawal of Western forces and the Afghan Presidential elections opening up the potential for progress in peace talks but equally the potential for an intensification in the conflict. Final project findings will also inform the learning of lessons from this war by Western militaries for doctrine and capability development and military education, and by wider policy communities for future Western military interventions.

在2001- 2002年的一场闪电战争中，美国（在英国的支持下）入侵阿富汗，推翻了塔利班政权。从那以后，西方国家花费了超过一万亿美元和十多年的时间来打击塔利班，并试图重建阿富汗。尽管如此，叛乱仍未被击败。在解释这种状况时，分析人士主要集中在国际和阿富汗努力的不足之处。缺乏进展被归咎于西方领导和战略的失败，归咎于国际社会的傲慢和不一致，归咎于阿富汗政府的腐败，以及行动战术上的缺陷。这个项目将从塔利班的角度审视阿富汗战争。通过口述历史，我们将重建塔利班是如何计划、战斗和经历战争的。我们将研究自2001年以来塔利班战略、结构和战术的演变。我们将探讨塔利班如何从2004年开始在南部和东部重新建立自己的势力，并在该国北部和西部稳步扩大其存在。最后，我们将评估国际作战部队撤离对塔利班军事行动的影响。总的来说，我们将评估塔利班在冲突中的适应性和塔利班恢复力的根源。这是一幅极其复杂的画面，当地的政治、压力和个人因素都有很大的差异，推动着当地的冲突，塔利班领导层内部各派系之间以及交战各方（国际、阿富汗和叛乱分子）之间的动态互动。研究小组汇集了三名研究人员，他们在阿富汗和西方的战争观点方面具有丰富的国内实地工作经验和广泛的专业知识。该项目的方法已在esrc资助的一项试点研究中得到检验，该研究通过对53名塔利班指挥官和27名当地长老的采访，重建了2004年至2012年阿富汗南部赫尔曼德省塔利班的活动。这个项目将把这项研究扩大到另外八个省，涵盖阿富汗所有地区。选择各省的原因是各省对塔利班的重要性，以便能够评估地方动态、神职人员支持、地理位置和其他武装团体对塔利班运动的影响。利用经验丰富的阿富汗实地研究人员，该项目将进行275次访谈；195人是塔利班指挥官和干部，80人是当地长老。该项目的一个创新之处在于，除了研究当前冲突的最后阶段外，它还将通过与塔利班高级领导人的接触，寻求积极塑造冲突的最终阶段。这将建立在ESRC资助的与塔利班高级领导人的两套会谈的基础上；2012年7月，双方探讨了塔利班对和解的看法，并将这些观点传达给西方决策者；2013年3月，双方探讨了停火的可能性。该项目将出版四本高质量的出版物；出版了一本书，在主要学术期刊上发表了两篇学术论文，在美国主要政策期刊上发表了一篇论文。中期项目结果将从2014年中期起为西方政策提供参考；今年是关键的一年，西方军队撤离，阿富汗总统选举开启了和平谈判取得进展的可能性，但同样也有加剧冲突的可能性。最后的项目结果还将为西方军队从这场战争中吸取教训，用于理论和能力发展和军事教育，并为未来西方军事干预提供更广泛的政策团体。