An Atlas of Victorian Fertility Decline

维多利亚时代生育率下降图集

• 批准号: ES/L015463/1
• 负责人: Alice Reid
• 金额: $ 74.65万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2015
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2015 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FL015463%2F1
• 关键词: Atlas; Victorian; Fertility; Decline

This project will achieve a greater and more nuanced understanding of the unprecedented English and Welsh fertility decline of the Victorian and Edwardian through the production of an Atlas of Fertility which will illustrate geographical patterns in various measures of fertility and marriage over time. Despite considerable research into the late 19th and early 20th century decline of fertility in England and Wales, understanding of the origins and evolution of this important social development remains surprisingly limited, mainly because researchers have largely had to rely on published reports (which tabulate figures for large geographic units and give no information on how fertility is distributed among women) or on time-consuming local studies. Now, however, the release of a database of individual-level census returns for the whole of England and Wales for 1851-1911 makes feasible the calculation of age specific fertility measures at 7 points in time for over 2000 registration sub-districts (RSDs), as well as for social classes and occupational groups. Such measures will greatly enhance our knowledge of where, when and at what rate fertility declined, and which groups spearheaded the behaviours which reduced the number of children being born. To calculate age-specific fertility rates from the returns of a particular census, the number of children born to women of specific ages in the 5 years before the census is required. The number of children aged under 5 living with their mothers can be identified from the census schedules, but additional data on children born in the 5 years before the census but dying before they could be enumerated have to be included the counts in order to accurately estimate the fertility rates. The numbers of child and infant deaths for each RSD will therefore be collected from the Registrar General's reports, creating a mortality database at unprecedented geographic scale. Other measures contributing to overall fertility will be calculated and mapped, including illegitimacy, children living without both parents, the proportion of the female population who were in their fertile years (15-49), the proportion of these who were married and living with their husband, and an index of age of marriage.A spatial database of fertility, marriage and early child mortality will be constructed at RSD level, allowing patterns to be mapped and spatially and statistically analysed. The creation of consistent units using spatial interpolation will allow patterns over time to be more clearly seen. The maps will form the basis of the 'Atlas of Fertility Decline', which will also include analysis and explanatory text. Because of the scale used, printed maps will only be able to indicate a 'general' picture so electronic maps will also be devised to enable viewers to zoom in to particular areas to see the patterns and changes over time in greater detail. This will be of particular use when large cities, with different social and economic sectors, are being studied. Online courses will allow interested parties to gain a better understanding of the calculation and interpretation of demographic measures.Multivariate spatial analysis will be used to investigate the influences affecting fertility, nuptiality and early age mortality, and the results published in leading academic journals. The project will also compare the cross-sectional fertility measures, derived by counting parents and their children in the census returns, with the fertility rates reported retrospectively by married women in the 1911 census.The Atlas and academic papers will provide very detailed data, allowing the 'big questions' about fertility decline in England and Wales (were the fundamental drivers of decline new forms of knowledge or cultural changes? Did fertility decline spreads mainly through social groups or over geographical space?) to be addressed more thoroughly than ever before.

该项目将通过制作生育率地图集，更深入、更细致地了解维多利亚时代和爱德华时代英格兰和威尔士前所未有的生育率下降，该地图集将说明生育率和婚姻随时间变化的各种地理模式。尽管对19世纪末和世纪初英格兰和威尔士的生育率下降进行了大量研究，但对这一重要社会发展的起源和演变的了解仍然非常有限，主要是因为研究人员在很大程度上不得不依赖出版的报告（这些报告将大地理单位的数据制成表格，没有提供关于生育率如何在妇女中分布的信息）或耗时的地方研究。然而，现在公布了1851 - 1911年整个英格兰和威尔士个人一级人口普查报告数据库，使得在7个时间点计算2 000多个登记分区以及社会阶层和职业群体的特定年龄生育率措施成为可能。这些措施将大大增加我们对生育率在何处、何时和以何种速度下降的了解，以及哪些群体率先采取了减少生育儿童数量的行为。要根据特定人口普查的结果计算特定年龄的生育率，需要提供特定年龄妇女在人口普查前5年内所生子女的数量。与母亲生活在一起的5岁以下儿童的数量可以从普查表中确定，但关于在普查前5年出生但在统计之前死亡的儿童的额外数据必须列入统计，以便准确估计生育率。因此，每个区域自治区的儿童和婴儿死亡人数将从注册长的报告中收集，从而创建一个前所未有的地理规模的死亡率数据库。将计算和绘制有助于总体生育率的其他指标，包括非婚生子女、没有双亲的儿童、处于生育年龄（15 - 49岁）的女性人口比例、已婚并与丈夫生活在一起的女性人口比例以及结婚年龄指数。从而可以绘制图案并进行空间和统计分析。使用空间插值创建一致的单位将允许更清楚地看到随着时间的推移的模式。这些地图将构成"生育率下降地图集"的基础，该地图集还将包括分析和解释性文字。由于使用的比例尺，印刷地图只能显示一个“一般”的图片，因此电子地图也将被设计成使观众能够放大到特定地区，以更详细地看到模式和随时间的变化。在对具有不同社会和经济部门的大城市进行研究时，这将特别有用。在线课程将使感兴趣的各方更好地了解人口统计措施的计算和解释，将使用多变量空间分析来调查影响生育率、结婚率和早期死亡率的影响，并将结果发表在主要学术期刊上。该项目还将比较人口普查报告中计算父母及其子女的横截面生育率，与1911年人口普查中已婚妇女回顾性报告的生育率。地图集和学术论文将提供非常详细的数据，允许关于英格兰和威尔士生育率下降的"大问题"（衰落的根本驱动力是新的知识形式还是文化变革？生育率下降主要是通过社会群体还是通过地理空间传播？）比以往任何时候都更彻底地解决。

项目成果

PopulationsPast: an interactive atlas of Victorian and Edwardian population

PopulationsPast：维多利亚时代和爱德华时代人口的互动地图集

• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Local Population Studies
• 作者: Cambridge Group For The History Of Population;Social Structure
• 通讯作者: Social Structure

Adapting the Own Children Method to allow comparison of fertility between populations with different marriage regimes.

采用亲子法来比较不同婚姻制度人口之间的生育率。

• DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1630563
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Population studies
• 作者: Reid A

The geography of early childhood mortality in England and Wales, 1881-1911

英格兰和威尔士幼儿死亡率的地理分布，1881-1911 年

• DOI: 10.4054/demres.2017.37.58
• 发表时间: 2017
• 期刊: Demographic Research
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Jaadla H

Infant Mortality in England, 1538-2000: Decline in the Twentieth Century

英国婴儿死亡率，1538 年至 2000 年：二十世纪的下降

• DOI: 10.35488/lps107.2021.122
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Local Population Studies
• 作者: Galley C

Fatal Places? Contextual Effects on Infant and Child Mortality in Early Twentieth Century England and Wales

• DOI: 10.1017/ssh.2023.5
• 发表时间: 2023-07-10
• 期刊: SOCIAL SCIENCE HISTORY
• 影响因子: 0.8
• 作者: Reid，Alice;Garrett，Eilidh;Rafferty，Sarah
• 通讯作者: Rafferty，Sarah