A Dynamic Analysis of Poverty and Vulnerability in Wales: Moving Beyond the "Conventional" Approach

学术界和实践者越来越认识到，贫穷是多维的，是具体情况的。贫穷的多个方面共同定义了穷人的经历。独立考虑各个维度是不够的，但现有的计算多维贫困指数（MPI）的方法有几个弱点，无法长期进行有意义的贫困比较，从而限制了评估政策影响的能力。例如，Ravallion（2011, 12）批评MPI在选择指标及其权重方面具有任意性。对MPI的另一个批评是，它使用一年的调查来衡量贫困，因此缺乏动态（Addison et al. 2009）。因此，有余地进行认真的实证研究，将多维贫困理解为动态过程的结果，在这个动态过程中，个人历史、经历、生计战略和相关风险驱使一些人进入贫困的特定层面（例如健康），或使在其他层面（例如资产）帮助穷人摆脱贫困变得困难。有证据表明，威尔士的工作贫困在过去十年中一直在上升（Gottfried和Lawton, 2010； JRF, 2013）。根据威尔士和更广泛的英国（BHPS和理解社会）最新可用的面板数据，并将其与定性信息相结合，我们建议通过应用最先进的计量经济学方法，超越现有的MDP分析，使我们能够了解威尔士的MDP动态，特别是工作中的贫困。更具体地说，我们的模型将帮助我们理解过去某一特定维度的贫困持续时间可能通过模拟不可观察的能力影响贫困每个组成部分随后的转变的机制。拟议的研究将确定威尔士在职贫困的规模、重要性和地理位置。我们将为威尔士创建MDP结果地图。此外，定量和空间分析的结果将通过两个层面的定性互动得到验证：与致力于解决个人和家庭层面贫困问题的地方政府部门和志愿部门组织；以及正在经历多维贫困的个人和家庭本身。我们将通过已建立的非政府组织网络开展工作，如无家可归者论坛和支持人民论坛，它们在调查的定性阶段将第一类参与者联合起来。我们将使用一份描述贫困决定因素和解决其影响的拟议框架的无障碍简报作为介绍，对15名有目的抽样的参与者进行半结构化访谈。我们将使用相同的当地组织来识别和采访第二类参与者，同样有15次有目的地抽样采访，这些采访代表了从二手数据分析中得出的关键类别。这将提供一个更清晰和更细致入微的视角，了解决定在职贫困和受其影响的家庭的机制以及由此产生的问题。访谈将在NVivo进行录音、转录和分析，使用现象学方法从从业者及其客户的角度获取生活经验。我们将使用混合方法程序，同等优先考虑两种主要的方法观点，为解决威尔士贫困问题的高效和有效方法提供新的见解。在最后阶段，这些见解将通过三个区域讲习班分别与北部、中部和南部威尔士的更广泛的利益相关者群体进行介绍、辩论并整合为政策制定的建议。在这最后一轮对我们的总体结果的话语评估中，我们将制定我们的政策建议。

There is increasing recognition among academics and practitioners that poverty is multidimensional and context specific. It is the multiple aspects of poverty that together define the experience of the poor. Considering the various dimensions independently is insufficient but existing methods for computing Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) have several weaknesses that prevent meaningful poverty comparison over time, thereby limiting the ability to assess policy impact. Ravallion (2011, 12), for example, has criticised the MPI on the grounds of arbitrariness in selecting indicators and their weights. Another criticism of the MPI is that it measures poverty using a single year survey and therefore lacks dynamics (Addison et al. 2009). There is thus scope for serious empirical research to understand Multi-dimensional Poverty (MDP) as the outcome of dynamic processes in which a personal history, experience, livelihood strategy and associated risks drive some people to enter into a particular dimension of poverty (e.g. health) or make it difficult to help the poor in other dimensions (e.g. asset) escape from poverty.Evidence suggests that in-work poverty in Wales has been on the rise in the past decade (Gottfried and Lawton, 2010; JRF, 2013). Drawing upon the most recently available panel data on Wales and the wider UK (BHPS and Understanding Society) and combining them with qualitative information, we propose to go beyond the existing analysis of MDP by applying state-of-the-art econometric methods which allow us to understand MDP dynamics in Wales in general and in-work poverty in particular. More specifically, our models will help us understand mechanisms by which the duration of poverty in a particular dimension in the past potentially affects subsequent transitions of each component of poverty by modelling unobservable capabilities. The proposed research will establish the scale, importance and geography of in-work poverty in Wales. We will create maps of our MDP results for Wales.Furthermore, the results of the quantitative and spatial analyses will be validated through qualitative interaction on two levels: with departments of local government and voluntary sector organisations which work to tackle poverty at the level of individuals and households; and with individuals and households themselves which are experiencing multidimensional poverty. We will work through established networks of NGOs, such as the Homelessness Forum, and the Supporting People Forum, which unite the first category of participants in the qualitative phase of the inquiry. We will use an accessible briefing describing poverty determinants and proposed frameworks to tackle their effects as an introduction, a semi-structured interview with 15 purposively sampled participants. We will use the same local organisations to identify and interview the second category of participants, again with 15 purposively sampled interviews in situations which represent the key categories elicited from secondary data analysis. This will provide a clearer and more nuanced perspective on the mechanisms determining, and consequent problems arising, from in-work poverty and the families affected by it. Interviews will be audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed in NVivo, using a phenomenological approach to obtain lived experience accounts from the perspective of practitioners and their clients.We will use mixed method procedures, giving equal precedence to the two major methodological perspectives, to provide new insights into efficient and effective approaches to tackling poverty in Wales. In a final stage these insights will be introduced, debated and consolidated into recommendations for policy development through three regional workshops with wider groups of stakeholders in North, Mid and South Wales, respectively. From this concluding round of discursive evaluations of our overall results, we will formulate our policy recommendations.