A Dynamic Analysis of Poverty and Vulnerability in Wales: Moving Beyond the "Conventional" Approach

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There is increasing recognition among academics and practitioners that poverty is multidimensional and context specific. It is the multiple aspects of poverty that together define the experience of the poor. Considering the various dimensions independently is insufficient but existing methods for computing Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) have several weaknesses that prevent meaningful poverty comparison over time, thereby limiting the ability to assess policy impact. Ravallion (2011, 12), for example, has criticised the MPI on the grounds of arbitrariness in selecting indicators and their weights. Another criticism of the MPI is that it measures poverty using a single year survey and therefore lacks dynamics (Addison et al. 2009). There is thus scope for serious empirical research to understand Multi-dimensional Poverty (MDP) as the outcome of dynamic processes in which a personal history, experience, livelihood strategy and associated risks drive some people to enter into a particular dimension of poverty (e.g. health) or make it difficult to help the poor in other dimensions (e.g. asset) escape from poverty.Evidence suggests that in-work poverty in Wales has been on the rise in the past decade (Gottfried and Lawton, 2010; JRF, 2013). Drawing upon the most recently available panel data on Wales and the wider UK (BHPS and Understanding Society) and combining them with qualitative information, we propose to go beyond the existing analysis of MDP by applying state-of-the-art econometric methods which allow us to understand MDP dynamics in Wales in general and in-work poverty in particular. More specifically, our models will help us understand mechanisms by which the duration of poverty in a particular dimension in the past potentially affects subsequent transitions of each component of poverty by modelling unobservable capabilities. The proposed research will establish the scale, importance and geography of in-work poverty in Wales. We will create maps of our MDP results for Wales.Furthermore, the results of the quantitative and spatial analyses will be validated through qualitative interaction on two levels: with departments of local government and voluntary sector organisations which work to tackle poverty at the level of individuals and households; and with individuals and households themselves which are experiencing multidimensional poverty. We will work through established networks of NGOs, such as the Homelessness Forum, and the Supporting People Forum, which unite the first category of participants in the qualitative phase of the inquiry. We will use an accessible briefing describing poverty determinants and proposed frameworks to tackle their effects as an introduction, a semi-structured interview with 15 purposively sampled participants. We will use the same local organisations to identify and interview the second category of participants, again with 15 purposively sampled interviews in situations which represent the key categories elicited from secondary data analysis. This will provide a clearer and more nuanced perspective on the mechanisms determining, and consequent problems arising, from in-work poverty and the families affected by it. Interviews will be audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed in NVivo, using a phenomenological approach to obtain lived experience accounts from the perspective of practitioners and their clients.We will use mixed method procedures, giving equal precedence to the two major methodological perspectives, to provide new insights into efficient and effective approaches to tackling poverty in Wales. In a final stage these insights will be introduced, debated and consolidated into recommendations for policy development through three regional workshops with wider groups of stakeholders in North, Mid and South Wales, respectively. From this concluding round of discursive evaluations of our overall results, we will formulate our policy recommendations.