GCRF - Conflict and Private Economic activity: an analysis of new harmonised household data from sub-Saharan Africa (COPE)
GCRF - 冲突与私人经济活动:对撒哈拉以南非洲地区新的统一家庭数据的分析 (COPE)
基本信息
- 批准号:ES/P003710/1
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 20.84万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:英国
- 项目类别:Research Grant
- 财政年份:2017
- 资助国家:英国
- 起止时间:2017 至 无数据
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Some scant evidence exists that conflict influences households' investment choices in economic activities, for example by reducing investments in relatively more capital intensive activities and in activities with longer term returns. However it is unclear to what extent such results can be generalized across conflicts and what other factors may affect the direction and intensity of these effects. Beyond the type of investment, it is also not clear how changes in conflict intensity affect the growth of investment and firm size.This research aims to provide comparative evidence by improving our understanding of the impact of violent conflict on investment in entrepreneurial activities with different growth potentials. Methodology will consist in building a new dataset matching and harmonizing household surveys and violent conflict events for fragile and conflict states (FCS) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We will investigate how conflict affects the type of private investments by households - type of activity, firm size, and returns to investment - and how institutional, geographical, and individual characteristics influence this entrepreneurial choice. We will also investigate how changes in conflict intensity affect firm growth in size, investment, and profits. This project will make a number of crucial academic and policy contributions. Firstly, it will shift the focus from the effect of conflict on the number of entrepreneurial activities to the composition of entrepreneurial activities with different growth potentials. Secondly, it will improve on the identification of the average effect of conflict on entrepreneurial activity and private sector development at the micro level. Thirdly, it will improve substantially our understanding of the institutional, geographical and conflict related factors that mediate the impact of conflict on entrepreneurial activity. Furthermore, the inclusion of a large set of countries will allow to test for the external validity of these effects across several countries and types of conflict on which no such evidence exists. All these achievement will be obtained through an approach that will credibly identify the causality of conflict on economic activity through the use of a novel instrumental variable strategy and exploiting a new household panel dataset. Lastly, and more importantly, we will be able to test the effect of conflict as a barrier to firm growth in size and investment.This research adds to a debate on pressing social and policy issues: conflict and economic growth. It is therefore particularly relevant not only for the academic community, but also for policy makers, peace builders and peace keepers, NGOs operating in the field, employers, public, social and private enterprises, trade unions, training institutions and young and old members of the workforce that seek and use information on employment and investment decisions. Our dissemination plan ensures that the findings of our research reach all the above stakeholders to inform their decision-making processes.
几乎没有证据表明,冲突影响了家庭在经济活动中的投资选择,例如减少了对相对资本密集型活动和具有较长期回报的活动的投资。然而,尚不清楚这些结果可以在多大程度上推广到冲突中,也不清楚哪些其他因素可能影响这些影响的方向和强度。除了投资类型外,冲突强度的变化如何影响投资和企业规模也不清楚。本研究旨在通过提高我们对暴力冲突对具有不同增长潜力的创业活动投资的影响的理解,提供比较证据。方法将包括建立一个新的数据集,匹配和协调撒哈拉以南非洲脆弱和冲突国家的家庭调查和暴力冲突事件。我们将调查冲突如何影响家庭的私人投资类型-活动类型、公司规模和投资回报-以及机构、地理和个人特征如何影响这种创业选择。我们还将调查冲突强度的变化如何影响公司规模、投资和利润的增长。该项目将在学术和政策方面做出一些重要贡献。首先,它将把重点从冲突对创业活动数量的影响转移到不同增长潜力的创业活动的构成上。第二,它将改进在微观一级确定冲突对创业活动和私营部门发展的平均影响。第三,它将大大提高我们对冲突对创业活动影响的体制、地理和冲突相关因素的理解。此外,纳入一大批国家将使人们能够检验这些影响在几个国家和不存在此类证据的冲突类型中的外部有效性。所有这些成果都将通过采用新的工具变量战略和利用新的家庭面板数据集,可信地确定冲突对经济活动的因果关系的方法来实现。最后,也是更重要的是,我们将能够测试冲突作为企业规模和投资增长障碍的影响。这项研究增加了关于紧迫的社会和政策问题的辩论:冲突和经济增长。因此,它不仅与学术界有关,而且与寻求和利用就业和投资决策信息的政策制定者、和平缔造者和和平维护者、在实地开展活动的非政府组织、雇主、公共、社会和私营企业、工会、培训机构以及工作人员的青年和老年成员特别相关。我们的传播计划确保我们的研究结果能够到达所有上述利益攸关方,以便为他们的决策过程提供信息。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(4)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
Small Firms Dynamics Under Conflict. Evidence from Nigeria
冲突下的小企业动态。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2019
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Tommaso Ciarli
- 通讯作者:Tommaso Ciarli
A Difficult Relationship: Conflict and Entrepreneurship
困难的关系:冲突与创业精神
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2019
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Tommaso Ciarli
- 通讯作者:Tommaso Ciarli
Sub-Saharan African in-Conflict Countries: A Database. With a Guide to Household Cross-Country Data Harmonisation
撒哈拉以南非洲冲突国家:数据库。
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2018
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Ciarli T
- 通讯作者:Ciarli T
Why Does Conflict Foster Private Economic Activity? Evidence from Afghanistan
为什么冲突会促进私人经济活动?
- DOI:
- 发表时间:2019
- 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:Tommaso Ciarli
- 通讯作者:Tommaso Ciarli
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Tommaso Ciarli其他文献
Technological change and the vertical organization of industries
技术变革与产业垂直组织
- DOI:
10.1007/s00191-008-0092-x - 发表时间:
2008 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:1.8
- 作者:
Tommaso Ciarli;Riccardo Leoncini;Sandro Montresor;M. Valente - 通讯作者:
M. Valente
Structural interactions and long run growth: An application of Experimental Design to Agent Based Models
结构相互作用和长期增长:实验设计在基于代理的模型中的应用
- DOI:
10.3917/reof.124.0295 - 发表时间:
2012 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Tommaso Ciarli - 通讯作者:
Tommaso Ciarli
LOCAL INNOVATION SYSTEMS AND EMERGENT INDUSTRIALISATION PROCESSES: MODELLING FIRMS PRODUCTION AND NETWORKS STRUCTURE ♣
本地创新系统和新兴工业化进程:企业生产和网络结构建模 ♣
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2003 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Tommaso Ciarli;M. Valente - 通讯作者:
M. Valente
The role of technology, organisation, and demand in growth and income distribution
技术、组织和需求在增长和收入分配中的作用
- DOI:
- 发表时间:
2012 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:0
- 作者:
Tommaso Ciarli;André Lorentz;M. Savona;M. Valente - 通讯作者:
M. Valente
From drains to bridges: The role of internationally mobile PhD students in linking non-mobile with foreign scientists
从下水道到桥梁:国际流动博士生在将非流动科学家与外国科学家联系起来方面的作用
- DOI:
10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103577 - 发表时间:
2025-10-01 - 期刊:
- 影响因子:4.600
- 作者:
Rodrigo Ito;Diego Chavarro;Tommaso Ciarli;Robin Cowan;Fabiana Visentin - 通讯作者:
Fabiana Visentin
Tommaso Ciarli的其他文献
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