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Out of touch and out of time? A Cross-Temporal and Cross-Level Analysis of the Social and Ideological Distance between UK Voters and Political Elites

失去联系并且不合时宜？

基本信息

批准号：
ES/R003785/1
负责人：
Wolfgang Rudig
金额：
$ 20.53万
依托单位：
University of Strathclyde
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2018
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2018 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR003785%2F1
关键词：
Out touch out time Cross

项目摘要

Politicians are increasingly perceived as 'out of touch' with voters. The distance between voters and the political elite appears to have grown over recent years and is seen to contribute to the rise of 'populism' and anti-democratic attitudes. Has the gap between elites and public grown so large that politicians are 'out of time' to be accepted as legitimate representatives of the electorate, or could these processes be reversed? What can political parties, policy makers and politicians do to close the gap with voters?To answer these questions, we need to understand how the "disconnect" between politicians and their voters emerged in the first place. There has been no study on the dynamics of elite-voter congruence in the UK, but the data for such an analysis are available in the shape of a series of candidate studies (1992-2015) which can be matched with electoral studies on voter attitudes. Similar candidate and voter studies are also available for the elections to devolved representative bodies in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and thus it is also possible to address the question whether and why voters and elites are more or less disjointed across different levels of government. The project seeks to combine all existing data gathered on candidate surveys in the UK. Such a dataset can then be joined with data on voters and the general public, collected in the British Election Study and its regional equivalents, to provide the basis of a dynamic study of the interaction between voters and elites in the UK. With the help of this combined dataset, we will be able to analyse a number of questions that have been of central importance in debates about representation and the workings of electoral institutions in the UK. The main focus of the analysis will be on changes over time and their interrelationship. Have candidates standing for elections become more or less 'representative' of their voters over time? What caused any movement towards decreasing representation? What influence have candidate traits such as gender, sexual orientation, ethnicity, occupation and local residence had on the chances of being elected, and how has this changed over time? What is the link between these changes in social background and changes in political congruence? For example, does an increase in candidates and MPs who come from the local area they represent have an impact on the congruence in policy preferences with voters? A particular innovation of this project will be the ability to compare the attitudes and policy positions of candidates over time. Can we find evidence of a political 'life-cycle' effect with political activists taking up more radical position at the beginning of their career and then mellow as a result of age and experience? On the other hand, younger politicians might be more ambitious and thus have a greater incentive to tow the party line and suppress any more radical stances. Different policies on the selection of candidates may be considered in the light of our findings, depending on the preferences of political parties. The project will not just focus on Westminster politics but also analyse developments as a result of devolution. Many proponents of devolution thought that the elected bodies created in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales would be more representative of the people than the House of Commons. We will be able to analyse, for the first time, whether devolution has in fact produced a more representative political elite. If the Northern Ireland Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and the National Assembly for Wales are somewhat more representative in terms of its social make-up, what has been the effect of these changes on political congruence? This analysis of change over time will be particularly interesting in terms of attitudes to devolution. Have the political elites in these nations embraced the new institutions, or do pre-devolution conflicts still persist?

政客们越来越被认为与选民“脱节”。近年来，选民和政治精英之间的距离似乎越来越大，并被视为“民粹主义”和反民主态度的兴起。精英和公众之间的差距是否已经变得如此之大，以至于政客们已经“不合时宜”地被接受为选民的合法代表，或者这些过程是否可以逆转？政党、政策制定者和政治家可以做些什么来缩小与选民的差距？要回答这些问题，我们首先需要了解政治家和他们的选民之间的“脱节”是如何出现的。在英国，还没有关于精英选民一致性动态的研究，但这种分析的数据可以通过一系列候选人研究（1992-2015）的形式获得，这些研究可以与选民态度的选举研究相匹配。类似的候选人和选民研究也可用于北方爱尔兰、苏格兰和威尔士的权力下放代表机构的选举，因此也有可能解决选民和精英在不同级别的政府中是否以及为什么或多或少地脱节的问题。该项目旨在将英国候选人调查中收集的所有现有数据联合收割机结合起来。然后，这样的数据集可以与英国选举研究及其区域对等机构收集的选民和公众数据相结合，为英国选民和精英之间的互动动态研究提供基础。在这个综合数据集的帮助下，我们将能够分析一些在关于英国选举机构的代表性和运作的辩论中至关重要的问题。分析的主要重点将是随着时间的推移而发生的变化及其相互关系。随着时间的推移，参加选举的候选人是否或多或少地成为选民的“代表”？是什么导致了代表性下降的趋势？候选人的性别、性取向、种族、职业和当地居住地等特征对当选的机会有什么影响，这种影响随着时间的推移是如何变化的？这些社会背景的变化与政治一致性的变化之间有什么联系？例如，来自他们所代表的地方的候选人和议员的增加是否会影响政策偏好与选民的一致性？该项目的一个特别创新将是能够比较候选人在一段时间内的态度和政策立场。我们能否找到政治“生命周期”效应的证据，即政治活动家在职业生涯开始时采取更激进的立场，然后由于年龄和经验而变得成熟？另一方面，年轻的政治家可能更有野心，因此有更大的动机来拖党的路线，压制任何更激进的立场。我们会根据调查结果，视乎各政党的取向，考虑不同的候选人甄选政策。该项目将不仅关注威斯敏斯特政治，还将分析权力下放带来的事态发展。许多权力下放的支持者认为，在北方爱尔兰、苏格兰和威尔士创建的民选机构将比下议院更能代表人民。我们将能够第一次分析权力下放是否真的产生了一个更具代表性的政治精英。如果北方爱尔兰议会、苏格兰议会和威尔士国民议会在社会构成方面更具代表性，那么这些变化对政治一致性的影响是什么？从对权力下放的态度来看，这种对长期变化的分析将特别有趣。这些国家的政治精英们接受了新的制度吗？还是权力下放前的冲突仍然存在？