Media Context and the 2017 General Election: How traditional and social media shape elections (an extension of ES/M010775/1)

特蕾莎·梅呼吁的提前选举为评估和理解媒体在英国政治中的作用提供了一个紧迫的机会，因为一个支离破碎的媒体系统至少要为向选民提供误导性信息承担部分责任。我们之前的研究（ES/M010775/1）在选举期间和之后审查了传统媒体（电视、报纸和广播）和社交媒体，在选举中，某种形式的联合政府是预期的结果，并得到广泛和广泛报道的民意调查的证实，经济问题使所有其他报道相形见绌。我们的目标是：1）从传统媒体和社交媒体中开发信息流和媒体间议程设置模型; 2）评估国家和次国家媒体对特定选区和选民子集的对比影响; 3）了解社交媒体在选举过程中的作用; 4）研究媒体对学习的影响，竞选期间的偏好变化以及选举后对结果合法性的看法。我们的研究的一些关键发现投下了新的光媒体议程设置方面的问题和领导人，以及提供实验证据表明，选举后的反应，同样的“破碎的宣言承诺”是高度依赖于责任归属。两年后，选举背景发生了变化，保守党政府占多数，几乎所有主要政党的领导人都不同，英国脱欧既是主要问题，也是举行选举的表面原因，现任政府有可能在一代人的时间里获得最大比例的选票，对民意调查数据和媒体越来越不信任，例如，“假新闻”和Twitter机器人。这为我们提供了一个机会，在不同领导人和不同问题的竞争中重新审视和扩展我们的最初目标，“假新闻”和一场似乎竞争力远低于竞争力的比赛。综合起来，这些将使我们能够解决媒体在多大程度上有助于选民通过选举进程向政府问责的能力。我们使用我们为大规模媒体数据检索和分析开发的现有基础设施（ES/M010775/1和ES/N 012283/1）和捕获点击流活动的调查面板的组合来实现它们，这将为我们提供一个独特的机会来检查信息搜索和曝光（例如过滤气泡）。

The snap election called by Theresa May presents an urgent opportunity to assess and understand the role of media in British politics at a time when a fractured media system is being held at least partly responsible for presenting misleading information to voters. Our previous research (ES/M010775/1) examined traditional (television, newspapers and radio) and social media during and after an election in which some form of coalition government was the expected outcome, confirmed by extensive and widely reported polls, and economic issues dwarfed all other coverage. Our aims were to: 1) Develop a model of information flows and intermedia agenda setting from traditional and social media; 2) Assess the contrasting influence of national, and sub-national media on specific constituencies and subsets of the electorate; 3) Understand the role of social media in the electoral process; 4) Examine media effects on learning, preference change during the campaign and perceptions of the legitimacy of the outcome in the post-election period. Some of the key findings of our study have cast new light on intermedia agenda setting with respect to issues and leaders, as well as offering experimental evidence that post-election reactions to the same "broken manifesto promise" are highly contingent on attributions of responsibility. Two years later the electoral context has shifted, with a majority Conservative government, different leaders of almost all the major parties, Brexit is both the main issue and the ostensible reason the election was called, the possibility of the incumbent government gaining the largest proportion of the vote in a generation, and a growing distrust of polling data and the media e.g., 'fake news' and Twitter bots. This provides us with the opportunity to re-examine and extend our original aims in a contest of different leaders and different issues, "fake news" and a seeming far less competitive race. Taken together, these will allow us to address the extent to which media contribute to the ability of voters to hold governments accountable through the electoral process. We accomplish them using a combination of the existing infrastructure that we developed for large scale media data retrieval and analysis (ES/M010775/1 and ES/N012283/1), and a survey panel capturing clickstream activity, which will provide us with a unique opportunity to examine information search and exposure (e.g. filter bubbles).