After Exit: Assessing the Consequences of United Nations Peacekeeping Withdrawal

退出后：评估联合国维和行动撤出的后果

• 批准号: ES/S009590/1
• 负责人: Richard Caplan
• 金额: $ 94.51万
• 依托单位: University of Oxford
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FS009590%2F1
• 关键词: After; Exit; Assessing; Consequences; United

Aims and ObjectivesSince the end of the Cold War, there has been a vast expansion in the number and scope of UN peacekeeping operations. With rare exceptions, the UN is no longer deploying troops to maintain the peace between former belligerents; rather UN peacekeepers now regularly intervene in ongoing conflicts with the aim of imposing order in the short-term, and then institutionalizing peace over the long-term by supporting the (re)construction of state and governmental institutions.But is the UN realizing this ambitious aim of peacebuilding through statebuilding? To answer this question, we need to know whether states that have played host to UN peacekeeping missions are able to perform basic state functions after PKOs have ended and peacekeepers have withdrawn. Problematically, however, there is currently little and unsystematized data on state capacity and the delivery of public services after exit. In this project, we aim to address this empirical gap by addressing two questions. We first ask, 'What are the trajectories of state capacity following the withdrawal of peacekeeping missions and associated peacekeeping forces?' This question invites an empirical descriptive response, which we will produce by gathering original data on the functionality of formerly peacekept states after exit. Our data collection effort will involve an aggregation of cross-national quantitative and qualitative data, as well as large-scale surveys in Liberia and Haiti after long-standing UN missions close in those countries.Our second question moves from description to explanation by asking 'Under what conditions are state functions sustained after exit, and under what conditions is there a shift in state functionality?' This question rests on the assumption that we will observe variation in the degree to which states are able to deliver public services after the withdrawal of UN peacekeeping support. Where such variation is indeed observed, we will explore three sets of factors that may shape post-exit state capacity: (1) the strength and scope of domestic institutions before, and during, the period of PKO deployment; (2) the scope of international intervention and strategy of international withdrawal; (3) the degree to which diverse domestic and international actors step in and substitute for the roles previously played by the UN PKO, after exit.To assess the relative impact of these possible causal factors, we will compare quantitative and qualitative measures of state functions before and during periods of UN PKO deployment with indicators of state functionality during the five years that follow the withdrawal of UN forces. We will focus on four state functions, in particular: security capacity, governmental/administrative capacity, productive/extractive capacity, and external relations. Academic and Policy ImpactGiven the innovative nature of our project, it is expected to generate significant interest among academic and policy audiences alike. On the academic side, our study will speak to at least three distinct audiences; scholars who are interested in evaluating the effectiveness of UN peacebuilding and statebuilding; those interested in concepts of the state, state capacity, and state fragility; and researchers whose work explores the methodological challenges of measuring intended and unintended legacies of peacekeeping interventions. The proposed study will also be of clear interest to policy actors who are currently involved in UN-sponsored peacebuilding. Since several members of our research team have worked closely with the UN for many years, we have well-established connections to various UN departments. As such, we will be able to convey our findings directly to policy actors who are responsible for operationalizing the exit of UN PKOs. We also have established relationships with state and non-governmental actors in Liberia and Haiti, which will facilitate dissemination of our work there.

宗旨和目标自冷战结束以来，联合国维持和平行动的数量和范围都有了极大的扩展。除了极少数的例外情况，联合国不再部署部队来维持前交战国之间的和平;相反，联合国维和人员现在定期干预正在发生的冲突，目的是在短期内建立秩序，然后通过支持国家和政府机构的（重建）建设，使长期和平制度化。但是，联合国通过国家建设实现了建设和平的宏伟目标吗？要回答这个问题，我们需要知道，在维和行动结束、维和人员撤离后，联合国维和特派团的东道国是否能够履行基本的国家职能。但问题是，目前关于国家能力和退出后公共服务提供情况的数据很少，而且没有系统化。在这个项目中，我们的目标是通过解决两个问题来解决这个经验差距。我们首先要问，'在维持和平特派团和相关维持和平部队撤出后，国家能力的发展轨迹如何？“这个问题需要一个经验性的描述性回答，我们将通过收集关于前维持和平国家在退出后的功能的原始数据来产生。我们的数据收集工作将涉及跨国定量和定性数据的汇总，以及在利比里亚和海地长期的联合国特派团结束后在这些国家进行的大规模调查。我们的第二个问题从描述转向解释，问“在什么条件下，国家职能在撤离后得以维持，在什么条件下国家职能发生转变？“这个问题基于这样一个假设，即我们将观察到各国在联合国维和支持撤出后能够提供公共服务的程度的变化。如果确实观察到这种变化，我们将探讨可能影响退出后国家能力的三组因素：（1）部署维和行动之前和期间国内机构的实力和范围;（2）国际干预的范围和国际撤离的战略;（3）各种国内和国际行为者介入和取代联合国维持和平行动以前发挥的作用的程度，为了评估这些可能的因果因素的相对影响，我们将比较联合国维和行动部署前和部署期间国家职能的定量和定性措施与联合国部队撤离后五年内国家职能的指标。我们将重点关注四个国家职能，特别是：安全能力、政府/行政能力、生产/采掘能力和对外关系。学术和政策影响鉴于我们项目的创新性质，预计将在学术和政策受众中产生重大兴趣。在学术方面，我们的研究将至少对三个不同的受众说话;有兴趣评估联合国建设和平和国家建设的有效性的学者;那些对国家，国家能力和国家脆弱性的概念感兴趣的人;以及研究人员，他们的工作探索了衡量维和干预措施的预期和非预期遗产的方法学挑战。目前参与联合国主持的建设和平工作的政策行为体显然也对拟议的研究感兴趣。由于我们的研究团队的几名成员与联合国密切合作多年，我们与联合国各部门建立了良好的联系。因此，我们将能够将我们的调查结果直接传达给负责落实联合国维和行动撤出的政策行为者。我们还与利比里亚和海地的国家和非政府行为体建立了关系，这将有助于在那里宣传我们的工作。

项目成果

Theorizing the Consequences of UN Peacekeeping Withdrawal

联合国维和行动撤军后果的理论分析

• 作者: Gledhill, J

Handbook on Peacekeeping and International Relations

维持和平与国际关系手册

• 作者: Caplan, R

Exploring the Impact of UN Peacekeeping Operations on the External Relations of Host States

探讨联合国维和行动对东道国对外关系的影响

• 作者: Caplan R

Exploring the Impact of UN Peacekeeping Operations on the Foreign Relations of Host States

探讨联合国维和行动对东道国外交关系的影响

• 作者: Caplan, R

Boon, bane, or business as usual: Perceptions of the economic consequences of peacekeeping withdrawal from Liberia

• DOI: 10.1080/03050629.2023.2291659
• 发表时间: 2024-01
• 期刊: International Interactions
• 影响因子: 1.3
• 作者: John Gledhill;Sabrina Karim