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Policy Evaluation Beyond Averages: Distributional Impact Analysis.

超越平均水平的政策评估：分布影响分析。

基本信息

批准号：
ES/S012362/1
负责人：
Sami Stouli
金额：
$ 32.06万
依托单位：
University of Bristol
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2019
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2019 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FS012362%2F1
关键词：
Policy Evaluation Beyond Averages Distributional

项目摘要

Assessing the impact of social and economic policies is a central concern for policymakers. However the way those policies are evaluated is often not effective, which means that a policy can be put in place that does not benefit to the right people in society, or might even harm those it is meant to help. This work will enable policymakers to make much more informed and accurate decisions in relation to developing and implementing policy, meaning that society as a whole will benefit as policy can be more accurately be designed to meet the right needs of the right people.The diagnostic tools employed by the vast majority of impact studies focus on average gains or losses from a policy. This is a potentially important shortcoming since, in practice, most individuals will not receive the average benefit or loss. The average effect of a policy is not informative about who loses and who benefits from a policy, and both the direction and magnitude of the effect may vary substantially across individuals. In this research, I develop quantitative techniques which allow for more nuanced policy evaluation. I intend to produce a statistical tool that will enable social scientists and policymakers to go beyond calculating average effects, while ensuring that their analysis captures the diverse effects of the policy under study.By allowing for differentiated impact evaluation across individuals, my novel perspective on causal analysis will provide innovative methods that will help improve allocation of resources and the design of policies targeted at specific populations, and has potential to achieve far-reaching benefits. I will focus on three specific tasks:1. Producing tools capturing the diversity of causal effects. I will introduce statistical methods for causal analysis and policy evaluation that allow for researchers and policymakers to uncover the complexity and diverse impacts of policies and treatments. By generalising a classical method (the so-called instrumental variables method), I will establish new theoretical results necessary for the sound application of my approach, and will illustrate these results with concrete examples from several fields, such as economics and health sciences.2. Promoting nuanced quantitative policy evaluation. My approach will change the practice of quantitative policy evaluation by allowing policymakers and social scientists to determine who benefits and who loses from a policy or treatment. They will be able to formulate nuanced and accurate policy diagnostics reducing the risks inherent to policy implementation. I will visit leading policy-oriented institutions, and collaborate with practitioners outside the scientific community in order to demonstrate how my methods will allow them to address a range of new policy questions and achieve more nuanced policy diagnostics.3. Making my methods available. I will provide practitioners with the technology and documentation necessary for the implementation of my methods through a freely available and open source software. I will also advertise my methods directly to practitioners through the organisation of workshops and presentations in leading academic and nonacademic institutions.

评估社会和经济政策的影响是决策者的一个主要关切。然而，评估这些政策的方式往往是无效的，这意味着一项政策可能不会使社会中的正确人群受益，甚至可能伤害那些应该帮助的人。这项工作将使决策者能够在制定和执行政策方面做出更加知情和准确的决定，这意味着整个社会将受益，因为政策可以更准确地设计，以满足正确人群的正确需求。这是一个潜在的重大缺陷，因为在实践中，大多数人不会得到平均的收益或损失。一项政策的平均效果并不能说明谁从政策中受益，而且影响的方向和程度可能会因个人而有很大差异。在这项研究中，我开发的定量技术，允许更细致入微的政策评估。我打算开发一种统计工具，使社会科学家和政策制定者能够超越计算平均效应，同时确保他们的分析能够捕捉到所研究政策的各种效应。通过允许对个体进行差异化的影响评估，我对因果分析的新视角将提供创新方法，有助于改善资源分配和针对特定人群的政策设计，并有可能实现深远的利益。我将重点做好三项具体工作：1.制作工具，捕捉因果效应的多样性。我将介绍因果分析和政策评估的统计方法，使研究人员和政策制定者能够揭示政策和治疗的复杂性和多样性影响。通过推广一种经典的方法（所谓的工具变量方法），我将建立新的理论结果，这些结果对于我的方法的合理应用是必要的，并且将用来自几个领域的具体例子来说明这些结果，例如经济学和健康科学。促进细致入微的定量政策评价。我的方法将改变定量政策评估的做法，让政策制定者和社会科学家能够确定谁从政策或治疗中受益，谁会损失。他们将能够制定细致入微和准确的政策诊断，减少政策执行的固有风险。我将访问领先的政策导向机构，并与科学界以外的实践者合作，以展示我的方法如何使他们能够解决一系列新的政策问题，并实现更细致的政策诊断。把我的方法拿出来。我将通过一个免费提供的开源软件为实践者提供实施我的方法所需的技术和文档。我还将通过在领先的学术和非学术机构组织研讨会和演讲，直接向从业者宣传我的方法。