The Cascading Effects of Numeracy and Over-indebtedness on Family Wellbeing: A Matched Samples Analysis

这个项目的重点是计算能力在帮助家庭管理问题债务和减轻其对经济和情感健康的有害影响方面的作用。过度负债是一个紧迫的社会问题，此前多年的低利率和疲软的工资增长推动无担保借款稳步增加。2017年，英国家庭30年来首次出现净赤字，平均支出比收入多900 GB(国家统计局，2018a)。债务可以反映对未来的积极投资，但依赖信贷维持消费会对家庭的长期财务健康产生削弱作用(Hodson，Dwyer，&Neilson，2014)。八分之一的成年人没有现金储蓄(Ripley&Watmough，2018)；六分之一的成年人发现难以按时支付账单和/或拖欠(MAS&CACI，2017)。算术能力反映了个人在多大程度上拥有“在日常生活中使用数字和数据做出正确决定”所需的技能和信心(National Numeracy，2019)。不算数是一个普遍的社会挑战，加剧了低生产率水平，并使人口的低经济能力永久化(FCA，2015)。30%的受访雇主表示对离校生的基本算术技能不满意(CBI/Pearson，2017)，近五分之四的英国成年人缺乏进行基本财务计算所需的数学技能(布多利亚、杰里姆和维格诺尔斯，2018)。不懂算术使家庭容易过度借贷和储蓄不足，因为人们往往低估了债务的总成本。当账单越来越多时，对数字和财务缺乏信心，限制了家庭以负担得起的方式减少开支和偿还债务的能力。负债累累的家庭有可能陷入债务螺旋式上升，因为偿还债务需要进一步借款。算术能力和过度负债都与心理健康不良和其他负面后果密切相关。尽管有这些联系，金融知识和债务咨询干预措施在制定帮助家庭消除问题债务的战略时很少考虑算术能力(MAS和CACI，2017)。此外，研究突出了计算能力方面的巨大性别和社会经济不足，但几乎没有证据表明计算能力(Furnham&Cheng，2018；Whitley等人，2016)或过度负债存在种族差异。这种知识的缺乏阻碍了制定缓解债务危机的有效政策，因为政策制定者缺乏关于特别需要支持的群体的信息。为了分离算术能力在帮助家庭实现财务福祉方面的因果作用，我将使用倾向得分分析来评估算术能力是否会影响家庭获得问题债务的可能性。倾向性得分接近实验条件，剔除了社会阶层等混杂因素，这些因素可能会使计算能力和过度负债之间的关系产生偏差。研究结果将进一步加深我们对干预措施如何帮助家庭发展财务能力的理解，并可能为服务于过度负债家庭的干预措施的设计和实施提供参考。为了进一步了解问题债务及其对英国家庭功能的影响，我将使用结构方程模型来测试债务、情绪、关系质量、育儿行为和青少年发展之间的关系。结果将扩大我们对问题债务影响个人主观幸福感和人际关系的途径的理解。为了解决缺乏关于种族和性别的研究，因为它与算术、债务和福祉有关，我将检查种族和性别差异是否存在于算术水平和无担保信贷的使用上。我将评估种族和/或性别是否会影响问题债务、幸福感和关系质量之间的关系。研究结果将为设计服务于不同种族人群的干预措施时需要考虑的因素提供洞察力。

This project focusses on the role of numeracy in helping families manage problem debt and mitigate its deleterious effects on financial and emotional wellbeing. Over-indebtedness is a pressing social problem, following years of low interest rates and weak wage growth that fuelled steady increases in unsecured borrowing. In 2017, UK households entered a net deficit for the first time in 30 years, having spent £900 more, on average, than they had earned in income (ONS, 2018a). Debt can reflect positive investments in the future, but reliance on credit to maintain consumption has debilitating effects on families' long-term financial wellbeing (Hodson, Dwyer, & Neilson, 2014). One in eight adults have no cash savings (Ripley & Watmough, 2018); one in six find it difficult to pay bills on time and/or are in arrears (MAS & CACI, 2017). Numeracy reflects the extent to which individuals have the skills and confidence needed "to use numbers and data to make good decisions in daily life" (National Numeracy, 2019). Innumeracy is a pervasive social challenge, exacerbating low productivity levels and perpetuating low financial capability in the population (FCA, 2015). Thirty percent of employers surveyed report dissatisfaction with school leavers' basic numeracy skills (CBI/Pearson, 2017), and nearly four in five adults in the UK lack the mathematical skills needed to perform basic financial calculations (Bhutoria, Jerrim, & Vignoles, 2018). Innumeracy renders families vulnerable to over-borrowing and under-saving, as people often underestimate the total costs of debt. When bills mount, lack of confidence around numbers and finances limits families' abilities to reduce expenses and pay off debts in an affordable manner. Over-indebted families risk entering into debt spirals, as repayments necessitate further borrowing. Numeracy and over-indebtedness are each closely tied to poor mental health and other negative outcomes. Despite these links, financial literacy and debt counselling interventions rarely consider numeracy when devising strategies to help families eliminate problem debt (MAS & CACI, 2017). Furthermore, research highlights large gender and socioeconomic shortfalls in numeracy, but there is scant evidence on ethnic variations in either numeracy (Furnham & Cheng, 2018; Whitley et al., 2016) or over-indebtedness. This lack of knowledge impedes the development of effective policies to alleviate debt crises, as policymakers lack information on groups in particular need of support. To isolate the causal role of numeracy in helping families achieve financial wellbeing, I will use propensity score analysis to assess whether numeracy influences the likelihood that families acquire problem debt. Propensity scores approximate experimental conditions, removing confounding factors such as social class that could bias the relationship between numeracy and over-indebtedness. Findings will further our understanding of how interventions can help families develop financial capability and may inform the design and delivery of interventions serving over-indebted families. To further understanding of problem debt and its effects on household functioning in the UK, I will use Structural Equation Modelling to test the relationships between debt, mood, relationship quality, parenting behaviours, and youth development. Results will expand our understanding of pathways by which problem debt affects individuals' subjective wellbeing and interpersonal relationships. To address the lack of research on ethnicity and gender as it relates to numeracy, debt, and wellbeing, I will examine whether ethnic and gender differences exist in levels of numeracy and use of unsecured credit. I will assess whether ethnicity and/or gender moderate relationships between problem debt, wellbeing, and relationship quality. Findings will provide insight into factors to consider when designing interventions to serve ethnically diverse populations.