WatPop: understanding seasonal population change

WatPop：了解季节性人口变化

• 批准号: ES/T005904/1
• 负责人: Alan Smith
• 金额: $ 30.89万
• 依托单位: Plymouth University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT005904%2F1
• 关键词: WatPop; understanding; seasonal; population; change

Population fluctuations driven by tourism are not captured by traditional population statistics, yet in some localities tourism is responsible for huge population fluctuations during the peak summer tourist season. Tourists staying within camping and caravanning sites, hotels/B&Bs/guesthouses or self-catering accommodation (e.g. rental cottages) are poorly captured within official statistics at the small area (sub-district) level. This is especially true within the counties of Cornwall and Devon where approx. 1 in 20 dwellings represent self-catering tourist accommodation. Tourist accommodation such as self-catering cottages (including those rented through growing peer-to-peer networks such as AirBnB) and second homes are predominantly drawn from the housing stock and very little is known about their location or occupancy patterns. Similarly, dwellings predominantly associated with tourism, such as static caravans, may be used as a permanent residential dwelling with year round occupancy. These properties and their seasonal occupancy patterns present considerable challenges for local population enumeration, and place substantial demands on infrastructure and local service provision (e.g. retail, health, emergency response). These impacts are highly localised and there is a clear requirement to understand the highly seasonal dwelling level occupancy patterns associated with the growing tourist accommodation sector. The research benefits from access to water supply data provided by project partner South West Water (SWW). SWW are the statutory water authority for south west England. Equivalent data are routinely collected by all statutory water authorities and, as non-sensitive and non-personally identifiable operational data, these data could have considerable potential as indicators of small-area or dwelling level population fluctuations driven by tourism. The proposed research aims to assess the feasibility of using water supply data to reveal small area seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism. Specifically the research aims to:1. Infer the seasonal and spatial distribution of small-area tourist-driven population fluctuations using area-based measures of water supply.2. Assess the feasibility of identifying second homes/holiday homes and self-catering rental properties and their periods of occupancy/vacancy from dwelling level smart meter derived water supply records. In addressing these aims a comprehensive methodology is proposed, drawing on the investigators experience in working with similar commercial data from the electricity sector, and in estimating spatiotemporal components of small-area population fluctuations. The proposed research has considerable potential to unlock the value of novel transactional data derived from a commercial sector partner. The ability to link non-sensitive and routinely collected indicators of water supply to underlying population fluctuations could offer considerable benefits to a range of end users. These include the academic community and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ONS have an ongoing requirement to identify non-residential dwellings to assist with population enumeration and the production of population statistics. As data provider, SWW could also realise considerable benefits from this study, including enhanced understanding of the impact of tourist-driven population fluctuations on the water supply side (provision of potable drinking water) and on the pressures placed on capacity-constrained waste water treatment systems. Our analysis will also add substantial value to a supply-side dataset which offers uniform coverage and oversight from a single authority, linking these data to existing datasets in a way that unlocks their potential in statistical and academic research. The 'Pathways to Impact' outlines a comprehensive strategy to ensure that these benefits are realised.

传统的人口统计无法反映旅游业驱动的人口波动，但在一些地区，旅游业是造成夏季旅游旺季巨大人口波动的原因。在小区域（分区）层面的官方统计数据中，很少记录在露营和房车露营地、酒店/民宿/宾馆或自助式住宿（例如出租小屋）内住宿的游客。这在康沃尔郡和德文郡尤其如此，那里大约。每 20 套住宅中就有 1 套是自助式旅游住宿。自助式小屋（包括通过 AirBnB 等不断发展的点对点网络租赁的小屋）和第二套住房等旅游住宿主要来自住房存量，而对其位置或入住模式知之甚少。同样，主要与旅游业相关的住宅，例如静态大篷车，可以用作全年占用的永久住宅。这些房产及其季节性入住模式给当地人口统计带来了相当大的挑战，并对基础设施和当地服务提供（例如零售、卫生、应急响应）提出了巨大的要求。这些影响高度局部化，因此明确要求了解与不断增长的旅游住宿行业相关的高度季节性的住宅入住模式。该研究受益于项目合作伙伴西南水务 (SWW) 提供的供水数据。 SWW 是英格兰西南部的法定水务局。所有法定水务部门都会定期收集等效数据，并且作为非敏感和非个人可识别的运营数据，这些数据可能具有相当大的潜力，可以作为旅游业驱动的小区域或住宅区人口波动的指标。拟议的研究旨在评估利用供水数据揭示旅游业驱动的小区域季节性人口波动的可行性。具体来说，该研究的目的是： 1．使用基于区域的供水措施推断小区域旅游驱动的人口波动的季节和空间分布。2．评估从住宅级智能电表得出的供水记录中识别第二套住房/度假屋和自炊式出租物业及其占用/空置期的可行性。为了实现这些目标，本文借鉴了研究人员在处理来自电力部门的类似商业数据以及估计小区域人口波动的时空成分方面的经验，提出了一种综合方法。拟议的研究具有巨大的潜力，可以释放来自商业部门合作伙伴的新颖交易数据的价值。将非敏感且定期收集的供水指标与潜在人口波动联系起来的能力可以为一系列最终用户带来可观的好处。其中包括学术界和国家统计局 (ONS)。 ONS 一直要求确定非住宅住宅，以协助人口清点和人口统计数据的制作。作为数据提供者，SWW 还可以从这项研究中获得相当大的好处，包括加深对游客驱动的人口波动对供水方面（提供饮用水）的影响以及对容量有限的废水处理系统造成的压力的了解。我们的分析还将为供应方数据集增加巨大的价值，该数据集提供统一的覆盖范围和来自单一权威机构的监督，以释放其在统计和学术研究方面的潜力的方式将这些数据与现有数据集联系起来。 “影响之路”概述了确保实现这些效益的全面战略。

项目成果

Smart water metering as a non-invasive tool to infer dwelling type and occupancy - Implications for the collection of neighbourhood-level housing and tourism statistics

智能水表作为推断住宅类型和占用率的非侵入性工具 - 对收集邻里住房和旅游统计数据的影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2023.102028
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 作者: Newing A