WatPop: understanding seasonal population change

WatPop：了解季节性人口变化

• 批准号: ES/T005904/1
• 负责人: Alan Smith
• 金额: $ 30.89万
• 依托单位: Plymouth University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT005904%2F1
• 关键词: WatPop; understanding; seasonal; population; change

Population fluctuations driven by tourism are not captured by traditional population statistics, yet in some localities tourism is responsible for huge population fluctuations during the peak summer tourist season. Tourists staying within camping and caravanning sites, hotels/B&Bs/guesthouses or self-catering accommodation (e.g. rental cottages) are poorly captured within official statistics at the small area (sub-district) level. This is especially true within the counties of Cornwall and Devon where approx. 1 in 20 dwellings represent self-catering tourist accommodation. Tourist accommodation such as self-catering cottages (including those rented through growing peer-to-peer networks such as AirBnB) and second homes are predominantly drawn from the housing stock and very little is known about their location or occupancy patterns. Similarly, dwellings predominantly associated with tourism, such as static caravans, may be used as a permanent residential dwelling with year round occupancy. These properties and their seasonal occupancy patterns present considerable challenges for local population enumeration, and place substantial demands on infrastructure and local service provision (e.g. retail, health, emergency response). These impacts are highly localised and there is a clear requirement to understand the highly seasonal dwelling level occupancy patterns associated with the growing tourist accommodation sector. The research benefits from access to water supply data provided by project partner South West Water (SWW). SWW are the statutory water authority for south west England. Equivalent data are routinely collected by all statutory water authorities and, as non-sensitive and non-personally identifiable operational data, these data could have considerable potential as indicators of small-area or dwelling level population fluctuations driven by tourism. The proposed research aims to assess the feasibility of using water supply data to reveal small area seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism. Specifically the research aims to:1. Infer the seasonal and spatial distribution of small-area tourist-driven population fluctuations using area-based measures of water supply.2. Assess the feasibility of identifying second homes/holiday homes and self-catering rental properties and their periods of occupancy/vacancy from dwelling level smart meter derived water supply records. In addressing these aims a comprehensive methodology is proposed, drawing on the investigators experience in working with similar commercial data from the electricity sector, and in estimating spatiotemporal components of small-area population fluctuations. The proposed research has considerable potential to unlock the value of novel transactional data derived from a commercial sector partner. The ability to link non-sensitive and routinely collected indicators of water supply to underlying population fluctuations could offer considerable benefits to a range of end users. These include the academic community and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ONS have an ongoing requirement to identify non-residential dwellings to assist with population enumeration and the production of population statistics. As data provider, SWW could also realise considerable benefits from this study, including enhanced understanding of the impact of tourist-driven population fluctuations on the water supply side (provision of potable drinking water) and on the pressures placed on capacity-constrained waste water treatment systems. Our analysis will also add substantial value to a supply-side dataset which offers uniform coverage and oversight from a single authority, linking these data to existing datasets in a way that unlocks their potential in statistical and academic research. The 'Pathways to Impact' outlines a comprehensive strategy to ensure that these benefits are realised.

传统的人口统计数据没有反映旅游业造成的人口波动，但在一些地方，旅游业是夏季旅游旺季人口大幅波动的原因。在小地区（分区）一级的官方统计中，很少有游客住在露营地和房车营地、旅馆/B& B/宾馆或自炊式住宿（如出租小屋）。这是特别真实的康沃尔郡和德文郡内的地方约。每20个住宅中就有1个是自助式旅游住宿。自助式小屋（包括通过AirBnB等日益增长的点对点网络租用的小屋）和第二居所等旅游住宿主要来自住房存量，对它们的位置或入住模式知之甚少。同样，主要与旅游业有关的住宅，如固定的大篷车，可用作全年居住的永久住宅。这些地产及其季节性占用模式给当地人口统计带来了相当大的挑战，并对基础设施和当地服务提供（如零售、保健、应急响应）提出了大量要求。这些影响是高度局部化的，有一个明确的要求，以了解与不断增长的旅游住宿部门相关的高度季节性的居住水平的入住模式。该研究受益于项目合作伙伴西南水务公司（SWW）提供的供水数据。SWW是英格兰西南部的法定水务局。所有法定水务当局都定期收集类似的数据，这些数据是非敏感和不可识别个人的业务数据，很有可能成为旅游业驱动的小地区或居住水平人口波动的指标。拟议的研究旨在评估利用供水数据揭示旅游业驱动的小区域季节性人口波动的可行性。具体而言，本研究旨在：1。使用基于地区的供水措施，推断小区域旅游驱动的人口波动的季节和空间分布。评估从住宅智能水表的供水记录中识别第二套住房/度假屋和自炊式租赁物业及其占用/空置期的可行性。为了实现这些目标，提出了一个全面的方法，利用调查人员在处理电力部门类似商业数据方面的经验，以及在估计小地区人口波动的时空组成部分方面的经验。拟议的研究具有相当大的潜力，可以释放来自商业部门合作伙伴的新型交易数据的价值。将非敏感和例行收集的供水指标与潜在的人口波动联系起来的能力可为一系列最终用户带来相当大的好处。其中包括学术界和国家统计局（ONS）。国家统计局一直要求查明非居住性住房，以协助人口普查和编制人口统计数据。作为数据提供者，SWW还可以从这项研究中获得相当大的好处，包括加深对旅游驱动的人口波动对供水方面（提供饮用水）的影响以及对容量受限的废水处理系统的压力的理解。我们的分析还将为供应方数据集增加实质性价值，该数据集提供统一的覆盖范围和来自单一权威机构的监督，将这些数据与现有数据集联系起来，以释放其在统计和学术研究中的潜力。“影响途径”概述了一项全面战略，以确保实现这些好处。

项目成果

Smart water metering as a non-invasive tool to infer dwelling type and occupancy - Implications for the collection of neighbourhood-level housing and tourism statistics

智能水表作为推断住宅类型和占用率的非侵入性工具 - 对收集邻里住房和旅游统计数据的影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2023.102028
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 作者: Newing A