WatPop: understanding seasonal population change

WatPop：了解季节性人口变化

• 批准号: ES/T005904/1
• 负责人: Alan Smith
• 金额: $ 30.89万
• 依托单位: Plymouth University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FT005904%2F1
• 关键词: WatPop; understanding; seasonal; population; change

Population fluctuations driven by tourism are not captured by traditional population statistics, yet in some localities tourism is responsible for huge population fluctuations during the peak summer tourist season. Tourists staying within camping and caravanning sites, hotels/B&Bs/guesthouses or self-catering accommodation (e.g. rental cottages) are poorly captured within official statistics at the small area (sub-district) level. This is especially true within the counties of Cornwall and Devon where approx. 1 in 20 dwellings represent self-catering tourist accommodation. Tourist accommodation such as self-catering cottages (including those rented through growing peer-to-peer networks such as AirBnB) and second homes are predominantly drawn from the housing stock and very little is known about their location or occupancy patterns. Similarly, dwellings predominantly associated with tourism, such as static caravans, may be used as a permanent residential dwelling with year round occupancy. These properties and their seasonal occupancy patterns present considerable challenges for local population enumeration, and place substantial demands on infrastructure and local service provision (e.g. retail, health, emergency response). These impacts are highly localised and there is a clear requirement to understand the highly seasonal dwelling level occupancy patterns associated with the growing tourist accommodation sector. The research benefits from access to water supply data provided by project partner South West Water (SWW). SWW are the statutory water authority for south west England. Equivalent data are routinely collected by all statutory water authorities and, as non-sensitive and non-personally identifiable operational data, these data could have considerable potential as indicators of small-area or dwelling level population fluctuations driven by tourism. The proposed research aims to assess the feasibility of using water supply data to reveal small area seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism. Specifically the research aims to:1. Infer the seasonal and spatial distribution of small-area tourist-driven population fluctuations using area-based measures of water supply.2. Assess the feasibility of identifying second homes/holiday homes and self-catering rental properties and their periods of occupancy/vacancy from dwelling level smart meter derived water supply records. In addressing these aims a comprehensive methodology is proposed, drawing on the investigators experience in working with similar commercial data from the electricity sector, and in estimating spatiotemporal components of small-area population fluctuations. The proposed research has considerable potential to unlock the value of novel transactional data derived from a commercial sector partner. The ability to link non-sensitive and routinely collected indicators of water supply to underlying population fluctuations could offer considerable benefits to a range of end users. These include the academic community and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ONS have an ongoing requirement to identify non-residential dwellings to assist with population enumeration and the production of population statistics. As data provider, SWW could also realise considerable benefits from this study, including enhanced understanding of the impact of tourist-driven population fluctuations on the water supply side (provision of potable drinking water) and on the pressures placed on capacity-constrained waste water treatment systems. Our analysis will also add substantial value to a supply-side dataset which offers uniform coverage and oversight from a single authority, linking these data to existing datasets in a way that unlocks their potential in statistical and academic research. The 'Pathways to Impact' outlines a comprehensive strategy to ensure that these benefits are realised.

传统人口统计数据并未捕获由旅游业驱动的人口波动，但在某些地区，旅游业在夏季旅游季节高峰时期导致人口波动巨大。在露营地和旅行场所，酒店/B＆B/旅馆或自助式住宿（例如出租别墅）中的游客在小区域（分区）水平的官方统计数据中占据了很差的捕获。在康沃尔和德文郡的县中，这尤其如此。 20分之一代表自助旅游住宿。游客住宿，例如自助式小屋（包括通过不断增长的对等网络（例如Airbnb）租用的住宿）和第二套房，主要是从住房库存中汲取的，对它们的位置或居住模式知之甚少。同样，与旅游业（例如静态大篷车）主要相关的住宅可以用作全年占用的永久住宅。这些物业及其季节性占用方式对当地人口列举面临着巨大的挑战，并对基础设施和当地服务提供的大量需求（例如零售，零售，健康，紧急响应）。这些影响是高度局部的，明确要求了解与不断增长的旅游住宿部门相关的高度季节性住宅水平居住模式。该研究受益于项目合作伙伴西南水（SWW）提供的供水数据。 SWW是英格兰西南部的法定水管理局。所有法定水管理机构通常会收集等效数据，并且作为非敏感和非个人识别的操作数据，这些数据可能具有相当大的潜力，这是由旅游业驱动的小区域或住宅人口波动的指标。拟议的研究旨在评估使用供水数据来揭示旅游业驱动的小面积季节性人群波动的可行性。特别是该研究的目的是：1。通过基于区域的供水量度来推断小区旅游驱动的人口波动的季节性和空间分布。2。评估识别第二套房/度假屋和自助租赁物业的可行性及其从住宅智能电表派生的供水记录中的居住时间/空缺期。在解决这些目标时，提出了一种全面的方法，这些方法借鉴了研究人员在使用电力部门的类似商业数据以及估计小区域人口波动的时空组件方面的经验。拟议的研究具有巨大的潜力，可以释放从商业部门合作伙伴得出的新型交易数据的价值。将非敏感和常规收集的供水指标与潜在人口波动联系起来的能力可以为一系列最终用户带来可观的好处。其中包括学术界和国家统计局（ONS）。 ONS有一项持续的要求，以确定非住宅的住所，以帮助人口列举和人口统计数据的产生。作为数据提供商，SWW还可以从这项研究中获得可观的好处，包括对旅游驱动的人口波动对供水方（提供饮用水的提供）的影响以及对容量受限的废水处理系统的压力的理解。我们的分析还将为供应端数据集增加实质性价值，该数据集提供了统一的覆盖范围和从单个权威的监督，将这些数据链接到现有数据集，以释放其在统计和学术研究中的潜力的方式。 “影响途径”概述了确保实现这些收益的全面策略。

项目成果

Smart water metering as a non-invasive tool to infer dwelling type and occupancy - Implications for the collection of neighbourhood-level housing and tourism statistics

智能水表作为推断住宅类型和占用率的非侵入性工具 - 对收集邻里住房和旅游统计数据的影响

• DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2023.102028
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Computers, Environment and Urban Systems
• 作者: Newing A