Perceived threats and 'stampedes': a relational model of collective fear responses

这项研究将解决人们如何集体应对感知到的紧急状态的问题。无论是在英国还是在全球，恐怖袭击的发生都与集体飞行事件的增加有关--通常被称为“踩踏事件”。大多数是虚惊一场。例如，在2017年牛津街的事件中，数百人逃离了他们认为是枪声的地方，更多的人在看到有人逃跑时加入了他们的行列，产生了一连串的次要影响。这些事件往往令参与其中的人感到痛苦。其中一些会导致受伤甚至死亡。对被感知到的敌意威胁的回应引发了以下问题：信号在什么时候以及如何被视为威胁？人们何时以及如何逃离？他们什么时候会追随(或忽视)别人？其他组织(当局、紧急服务机构)在传播威胁方面的作用是什么？这些事件是什么时候变得无序的？然而，尽管这些事件具有社会和心理意义，但人们对这些事件的理解很少，目前缺乏足够的理论理解。关于高度警惕的解释是必要的，但还不够。它们既没有解释如何分享威胁感知，也没有解释“踩踏”的集体性质。尽管在公共话语中占据主导地位，但对“人群恐慌”的解释也不充分。他们不能解释在这些疏散事件中歧视和克制的证据。这个项目将提供第一个系统的证据，说明人类在应对感知到的敌对威胁时‘踩踏’的性质和动态。我们将开发一个新的模型，基于社会认同方法(一种关于我们心理小组成员关系的理论)和社会评价理论(专注于我们从其他人的反应中推断出的社会和情感信息)。我们认为，“我们是谁”会影响人们对威胁、情绪评估和社会影响的看法，这一点可能会因环境而异。一个独特的说法是，像这样的人群活动是群体间的关系。因此，除了考察人群成员的认知和行为外，我们还将研究应急人员的认知和行为，以及响应者的沟通行为和公共行为之间的关系。以前在理解应对敌对威胁的“踩踏”方面存在局限性，这既是因为缺乏适当的方法，也是因为缺乏理论。我们将通过一个由三条线索组成的研究方案来解决这些限制。首先，案例研究部分将系统地描述和比较已知的例子(例如，2018年尼斯爆竹“踩踏”事件，2018年韦斯特菲尔德购物中心的疏散)，并使用采访和档案数据提供对当代和历史事件的详细分析。其次，使用虚拟现实的实验将允许我们操纵和控制变量，如群体关系和规范，并测量飞行反应的方向和速度，以便系统地检验我们关于身份和评估角色的假设。第三，鉴于应急人员和当局在传播威胁方面的作用，我们将观察他们的演习，并进行实地实验，以衡量他们的影响(有意和无意)，包括他们的信息的影响。这些研究将使我们能够确定一个信号何时以及如何被视为威胁，人们是否以及如何逃离，何时人们跟随(或忽视)其他人，以及紧急服务机构在这方面的作用。了解公众对感知到的紧急情况的反应对紧急政策和实践以及公共辩论具有影响。因此，除了一个新的理论模型，该项目的成果将包括新的紧急指导，以及关于这一主题的新的公共话语。

This research will address the question of how people respond collectively to acute states of perceived emergency. Both in the UK and globally, the occurrence of terrorist attacks has been associated with an increase in collective flight incidents - often called 'stampedes'. Most have been false alarms. In the case of the incidents in Oxford Street, in 2017, for example, hundreds ran from what they thought was gunshots, and many more joined in when they saw people running, in a cascade of secondary effects. These events are often distressing for those involved. Some of them result in injury and even deaths. 'Stampedes' in response to perceived hostile threats raise the following questions: When and how is a signal perceived as threatening? When and how do people flee? When do they follow (or ignore) others? What is the role of other groups (authorities, emergency services) in communicating threat? When do these incidents become disorderly?Yet despite their social and psychological significance, these incidents are poorly understood, and an adequate theoretical understanding is currently lacking. Explanations in terms of hypervigilance are necessary but insufficient. They don't explain either how threat perceptions are shared or the collective nature of 'stampedes'. Explanations in terms of 'crowd panic' are also inadequate, despite dominating public discourse. They cannot account for the evidence of discrimination and restraint in these evacuation events.This project will provide the first systematic evidence on the nature and dynamics of human 'stampedes' in response to perceived hostile threats. We will develop a new model, based on the social identity approach (a theory of our psychological group memberships) and social appraisal theory (which focuses on the social and emotional information we infer from others' responses). We argue that 'who we are' - which can vary across contexts - shapes perceptions of threat, emotional appraisal, and social influence. A distinctive claim is that crowd events such as these are intergroup relationships. Therefore, as well as examining crowd members' perceptions and behaviour, we will examine those of emergency responders, and the relationship between responders' communicative acts and public behaviours. Previous limitations in understanding 'stampedes' in response to hostile threats are due to a lack of appropriate methodology as much as the paucity of theory. We will address these limitations through a programme of research comprising three strands. First, a case study strand will systematically describe and compare known examples (e.g., Nice fire-cracker 'stampede' of 2018, evacuation at Westfield shopping centre, 2018), as well as provide detailed analysis, using interview and archive data, of a contemporary and a historical incident. Second, experiments using Virtual Reality will allow us to manipulate and control variables, such as group relationships and norms, and to measure direction and speed of flight response, in order to test systematically our hypotheses about the roles of identity and appraisal. Third, given the role of emergency responders and authorities in communicating threat, we will observe their exercises and carry out a field experiment to measure their influence (intended and unintended), including effects of their messages. Together these studies will enable us to determine when and how a signal is perceived as threatening, whether and how people flee, when people follow (or ignore) others, and the role of the emergency services in this.Understandings of public responses to perceived emergencies have implications for emergency policy and practice and for public debate. Therefore, as well as a new theoretical model, outcomes from this project will include new emergency guidance, and new public discourse on this topic.