Real-time evaluation of the effects of Covid-19 and policy responses on consumer and small business finances

实时评估 Covid-19 和政策应对对消费者和小企业财务的影响

• 批准号: ES/V004867/1
• 负责人: Neil Stewart
• 金额: $ 38.27万
• 依托单位: University of Warwick
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV004867%2F1
• 关键词: Real; time; evaluation; effects; Covid

The Covid-19 pandemic together with the unprecedented and radical economic policy response on the part of government has resulted in severe disruption to consumer finances and small business finances. There is an urgent and timely need to evaluate the extent of disruption and the effectiveness of recent policy innovations. This project will use a new and unique set of real-time, high frequency data available to evalute these far faster can be achieved with traditional ONS datasources.The project involves the creation of a new real-time economic characterisation of consumer and firm behaviour from mass transaction data. Specifically, the work will evaluate impact on consumer finances (reduced incomes, non-payment of debts, patterns of saving and expenditure) and small business finances (turnover and business continuity). The research will be co-produced with four organisations.First, working with the Financial Conduct Authority, the regulator of the consumer financial sector in the UK, to evaluate the impact on consumer indebtedness and evaluate the FCA's policy response, the Consumer Credit (Temporary Covid-19 Support Measures) Order 2020 (CCO220) andthe 3 month mortgage forbearnce scheme. Second, working with the National Employee Savings Trust, the largest provider of pensions to low income workers in the UK, to understand the effectson incomes and short-term and long-term saving behaviour.Third, working with the UK's largest financial aggregator app, Moneydashboard, to model the impact of 'lockdown' measures on consumer spending and business survival across sectors.Fourth, working with Natwest to evaluate the impact of the government's Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS).Findings will be presented to policymaker sponsors the researchers will continue to work with policymakers in real-time policy design.

2019冠状病毒病疫情加上政府采取前所未有的激进经济政策应对措施，导致消费者财务及小企业财务受到严重干扰。现在迫切需要及时评估最近政策创新的破坏程度和效力。该项目将使用一套新的和独特的实时，高频率的数据来评估这些可以更快地实现与传统的ONS数据库。该项目涉及创建一个新的实时经济特征的消费者和公司的行为从大量的交易数据。具体而言，这项工作将评估对消费者财务（收入减少、不偿还债务、储蓄和支出模式）和小企业财务（营业额和业务连续性）的影响。该研究将与四家机构联合制作。首先，与英国消费者金融行业监管机构金融行为监管局合作，评估对消费者负债的影响，并评估FCA的政策反应、2020年消费者信贷（临时Covid-19支持措施）令（CCO 220）和3个月抵押贷款豁免计划。第二，与英国最大的低收入工人养老金提供商National Employee Savings Trust合作，了解其对收入以及短期和长期储蓄行为的影响。第三，与英国最大的金融聚合应用Moneydashboard合作，模拟“封锁”措施对各行业消费者支出和企业生存的影响。第四，与Natwest合作评估政府的冠状病毒业务中断贷款计划（CBILS）的影响。研究结果将提交给政策制定者赞助商，研究人员将继续与政策制定者合作进行实时政策设计。

项目成果

The effects of personality and IQ on portfolio outcomes

• DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103464
• 发表时间: 2022-11
• 期刊: Finance Research Letters
• 影响因子: 10.4
• 作者: Christopher P. Firth;N. Stewart;Constantinos Antoniou;David Leake

Behaviour and Biases of Retail Investors: Task or Trait?

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3791634
• 发表时间: 2021-04
• 期刊: Household Finance eJournal
• 作者: Constantinos Antoniou;C. Firth;David Leake;Neil Stewart

Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending

水平下降和 COVID-19 封锁：英国消费者支出的地区复苏不均衡

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3798679
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: SSRN Electronic Journal
• 作者: Gathergood J

It Depends Who you Ask: Context Effects in the Perception of Stock Returns

这取决于你问的是谁：股票回报感知中的背景效应

• DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3777778
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: SSRN Electronic Journal
• 作者: Antoniou C

The English Patient: Evaluating Local Lockdowns Using Real-Time COVID-19 & Consumption Data

英国病人：使用实时 COVID-19 评估当地封锁情况

• DOI: 10.48550/arxiv.2010.04129
• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Gathergood J