COVID-19: TOURISM RECOVERY, RISK AND UNCERTAINTY

旅游业受到新冠肺炎的严重影响，预计它将是最后从大流行的影响中完全恢复的行业之一。在面临不确定的健康危害和边境/围堵控制的情况下，它面临着游客在预订假期时长期不愿冒险的问题。官方预测，2020年国际旅游将下降55%，国内旅游将下降24%，需求将保持低迷，直到2022年。这一点很重要，因为旅游业创造了英国近10%的就业机会，主导了一些当地经济，并有助于提高个人的生活质量。该项目将分析前所未有的新冠肺炎相关风险和不确定性如何塑造英国入境、出境和国内市场的游客意愿：也将分析国内旅游和出境(国际)旅游之间的替代。将审查对不同细分市场的影响：对长途与短途国际旅游的影响，以及对城市与农村与沿海旅游目的地的影响。此外，对风险和不确定性的态度以及对新冠肺炎的脆弱性也会因年龄、性别、教育程度、收入和种族的不同而有所不同。这项研究分为两个主要阶段。第一份分析了对英国及其四个最大市场--德国、法国、美国和中国--潜在游客的大规模调查。统计模型将提供对旅游体验不同要素中的风险和不确定性的态度的详细分析：旅行与住宿还是游览景点和娱乐场所。该项目还将全面评估短期(3个月)和长期(至2021年底)旅游意向的决定因素。研究的第二阶段分析了当面临新冠肺炎健康和遏制方案的对比时，个人游客的意图会如何改变。随着疫情的消退，不同类型的游客将如何应对不断放松的边境和社会控制，而不是第二波导致选择性或广泛实施封锁控制的浪潮，如隔离、边境测试、严格的社会距离规则以及关闭商业和社交场所。这项研究将为游客意图提供新的证据基础，从而支持更准确的需求预测，以及更有针对性的市场研究和英国旅游业政策措施。该项目是与两个领先的旅游组织合作进行的：英国旅游局和英国旅行社协会。

Tourism has been severely affected by Covid-19, and it is anticipated that it will be one of the last sectors to recover fully from the effects of the pandemic. It faces enduring tourist unwillingness to take risks when booking holidays in the face of uncertain health hazards and border/containment controls. Official estimates predict that international tourism will decline by 55% and domestic tourism by 24% in 2020, with demand remaining subdued until 2022. This matters because tourism accounts for almost 10% of UK jobs, dominates some local economies and contributes to the quality of life of individuals.This project will analyze how unprecedented Covid-19 related risks and uncertainties shape tourist intentions in the UK's inbound, outbound and domestic markets: substitution between domestic and outbound (international) tourism will also be analysed. The impacts on different market segments will be examined: on long-haul versus short-haul international tourism, and on urban versus rural versus coastal tourism destinations. Additionally, both attitudes to risk and uncertainty, and vulnerability to Covid-19, also vary by social characteristics: by age, gender, education, income and ethnicity.The research has two main stages. The first analyses large scale surveys of potential tourists in the UK and its four largest markets: Germany, France, USA, and China. Statistical modelling will provide detailed analyses of attitudes to risks and uncertainties in different elements of the tourism experience: travel versus accommodation versus visiting attractions and places of entertainment. The project will also provide an overall assessment of the determinants of tourism intentions in both the short (3 month) and the long term (to the end of 2021). The second stage of the research analyses how individual tourist intentions would change when faced with contrasting Covid-19 health and containment scenarios. How would different types of tourists respond to continuing gradual relaxation of border and social controls as the pandemic retreats, versus a second wave leading to selective or widespread imposition of lockdown controls such as quarantine, border testing, strict social distancing rules, and closure of commercial and social venues.This research will provide a new evidence base on tourist intentions that can underpin more accurate demand forecasts, and more targeted market research and policy measures for UK tourism. The project is undertaken in collaboration with two leading tourism organizations: VisitBritain and the Association of British Travel Agents.