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The sectoral economic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism economy: a regional analysis focussed on Scotland

COVID-19 对旅游经济的部门经济影响：以苏格兰为重点的区域分析

基本信息

批准号：
ES/W001195/1
负责人：
Grant Allan
金额：
$ 21.79万
依托单位：
University of Strathclyde
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FW001195%2F1
关键词：
sectoral economic impacts COVID 19

项目摘要

The broad patterns of changes in tourism induced by Covid-19 and the resulting containment measures - a sharp and sudden fall in international arrivals and lower international travel to the UK, plus reduced intra-UK domestic tourism flows and changed tourism behaviours - has been felt in all UK regions. Tourism is characterised by relatively low pay (its average gross wage was two-thirds of the Scottish average), high labour intensity (with its 218,000 jobs equivalent to 8% of all jobs in Scotland) and with one quarter of those jobs in rural areas.Tourism is also a key employer in many rural parts of the country, where economic resilience has tended to be more fragile than in other parts of the country. Understanding the potential economic implications of different scenarios will have important policy implications, not just on the economy but for the wider policy support landscape for different communities across Scotland. Crucially, changes in the scale and type of tourism does not impact only on tourist-facing activities, such as travel, accommodation, cultural and recreational activities, but also all those industries that are highly interconnected to tourism activities via supply chains such as such as agriculture, farming and fishing, and retail. In this project we partner with Visit Scotland to analyse the economic impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry and aggregate Scottish economy and to provide urgently required economic analysis to the key stakeholders in the Scottish tourism industry at national and sub-national levels. There is now a pressing requirement for specialised modelling work and quantitative development of this evidence base, to inform decision-making for Scotland's crucial tourism industry in the process of recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. There are two parts to the work which will occur through the project's duration. Firstly, it will bring together researchers and stakeholders from the tourism industry in the development of quantitative scenarios - building on already-developed qualitative scenarios by the Scottish Tourism Economic Recovery Group (STERG). These will set out agreed projections for the path of tourism under alternative scenarios, including policies. Secondly, the work will take these projections as inputs to an economic modelling framework for Scotland which will set out impacts of these scenarios. The results will capture impacts on the economy as a whole as well as on individual industries, including those directly exposed to tourism spending and the knock-on effects on linked industries across the whole economy and sub-regions of Scotland.This project will help STERG and policy makers at national and sub-national level in Scotland to fully understand the implications and magnitude of the various scenarios for Scottish tourism, in particular a worst-case 'three winters scenario'. This will ensure the current quantitative knowledge gap is filled and appropriate policy responses are effective in supporting economic recovery.

英国所有地区都能感受到新冠肺炎给旅游业带来的广泛变化以及由此带来的遏制措施--国际游客急剧下降、赴英国际旅游减少，以及国内旅游流量减少和旅游行为改变。旅游业的特点是工资相对较低(其平均总工资是苏格兰平均水平的三分之二)，劳动强度高(其21.8万个工作岗位相当于苏格兰所有工作岗位的8%)，其中四分之一在农村地区。旅游业也是该国许多农村地区的主要雇主，那里的经济弹性往往比国家其他地区更脆弱。了解不同情景的潜在经济影响将具有重要的政策意义，不仅对经济，而且对苏格兰各地不同社区的更广泛的政策支持格局也是如此。至关重要的是，旅游业规模和类型的变化不仅影响面向游客的活动，如旅游、住宿、文化和娱乐活动，而且还影响通过供应链与旅游活动高度相关的所有行业，如农业、农业和渔业以及零售业。在该项目中，我们与苏格兰旅游局合作，分析新冠肺炎对苏格兰旅游业和总体经济的经济影响，并为苏格兰旅游业的关键利益攸关方提供国家和地方各级亟需的经济分析。现在迫切需要对这一证据基础进行专业的建模工作和量化开发，以便为苏格兰关键的旅游业在从新冠肺炎疫情中恢复过程中的决策提供参考。这项工作有两个部分，将在项目的整个持续时间内发生。首先，它将把旅游业的研究人员和利益攸关方聚集在一起，在苏格兰旅游经济复苏小组(STRG)已经制定的定性情景的基础上，制定量化情景。这些文件将列出对包括政策在内的其他情景下的旅游发展路径的商定预测。其次，这项工作将把这些预测作为苏格兰经济模型框架的输入，该框架将列出这些情景的影响。结果将捕捉到对整个经济以及对个别行业的影响，包括那些直接受到旅游支出影响的行业，以及对整个苏格兰经济和次区域相关行业的连锁反应。该项目将帮助苏格兰政府和国家和国家以下各级的政策制定者充分了解各种情景对苏格兰旅游业的影响和规模，特别是最坏情况下的“三个冬天情景”。这将确保填补当前的数量知识缺口，并确保适当的政策回应在支持经济复苏方面有效。