The sectoral economic impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism economy: a regional analysis focussed on Scotland

英国所有地区都能感受到Covid-19引发的旅游业变化的广泛模式以及由此产生的遏制措施——国际入境人数急剧下降，英国国际旅游人数减少，英国国内旅游流量减少，旅游行为发生变化。旅游业的特点是工资相对较低（其平均总工资是苏格兰平均水平的三分之二），劳动强度高（其218,000个工作岗位相当于苏格兰所有工作岗位的8%），其中四分之一的工作岗位在农村地区。旅游业也是该国许多农村地区的主要雇主，那里的经济恢复能力往往比该国其他地区更脆弱。了解不同情景的潜在经济影响将对政策产生重要影响，不仅对经济，而且对苏格兰不同社区的更广泛的政策支持前景也有重要影响。至关重要的是，旅游规模和类型的变化不仅影响面向游客的活动，如旅游、住宿、文化和娱乐活动，还影响所有通过供应链与旅游活动高度关联的行业，如农业、农业和渔业以及零售业。在这个项目中，我们与苏格兰旅游局合作，分析2019冠状病毒病对旅游业和苏格兰整体经济的经济影响，并向苏格兰旅游业的国家和次国家层面的主要利益相关者提供急需的经济分析。现在迫切需要对这一证据基础进行专门的建模工作和定量开发，以便在从COVID-19大流行中恢复的过程中为苏格兰重要的旅游业提供决策信息。在整个项目期间，工作分为两部分。首先，它将把旅游业的研究人员和利益相关者聚集在一起，在苏格兰旅游经济复苏小组（STERG）已经开发的定性情景的基础上，制定定量情景。这些报告将对包括政策在内的各种备选方案下的旅游业发展道路作出商定的预测。其次，这项工作将把这些预测作为苏格兰经济建模框架的输入，该框架将设定这些情景的影响。结果将捕捉到对整体经济以及个别行业的影响，包括那些直接接触旅游消费的行业，以及对整个经济和苏格兰次区域相关行业的连锁效应。该项目将帮助苏格兰旅游局和苏格兰国家及地方层面的政策制定者充分了解各种情况对苏格兰旅游业的影响和影响程度，特别是最坏的“三个冬天”情况。这将确保目前的定量知识缺口得到填补，并确保适当的政策反应有效地支持经济复苏。

The broad patterns of changes in tourism induced by Covid-19 and the resulting containment measures - a sharp and sudden fall in international arrivals and lower international travel to the UK, plus reduced intra-UK domestic tourism flows and changed tourism behaviours - has been felt in all UK regions. Tourism is characterised by relatively low pay (its average gross wage was two-thirds of the Scottish average), high labour intensity (with its 218,000 jobs equivalent to 8% of all jobs in Scotland) and with one quarter of those jobs in rural areas.Tourism is also a key employer in many rural parts of the country, where economic resilience has tended to be more fragile than in other parts of the country. Understanding the potential economic implications of different scenarios will have important policy implications, not just on the economy but for the wider policy support landscape for different communities across Scotland. Crucially, changes in the scale and type of tourism does not impact only on tourist-facing activities, such as travel, accommodation, cultural and recreational activities, but also all those industries that are highly interconnected to tourism activities via supply chains such as such as agriculture, farming and fishing, and retail. In this project we partner with Visit Scotland to analyse the economic impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry and aggregate Scottish economy and to provide urgently required economic analysis to the key stakeholders in the Scottish tourism industry at national and sub-national levels. There is now a pressing requirement for specialised modelling work and quantitative development of this evidence base, to inform decision-making for Scotland's crucial tourism industry in the process of recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. There are two parts to the work which will occur through the project's duration. Firstly, it will bring together researchers and stakeholders from the tourism industry in the development of quantitative scenarios - building on already-developed qualitative scenarios by the Scottish Tourism Economic Recovery Group (STERG). These will set out agreed projections for the path of tourism under alternative scenarios, including policies. Secondly, the work will take these projections as inputs to an economic modelling framework for Scotland which will set out impacts of these scenarios. The results will capture impacts on the economy as a whole as well as on individual industries, including those directly exposed to tourism spending and the knock-on effects on linked industries across the whole economy and sub-regions of Scotland.This project will help STERG and policy makers at national and sub-national level in Scotland to fully understand the implications and magnitude of the various scenarios for Scottish tourism, in particular a worst-case 'three winters scenario'. This will ensure the current quantitative knowledge gap is filled and appropriate policy responses are effective in supporting economic recovery.