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Public policy in food markets: understanding advertising and choice inter-dependencies

食品市场的公共政策：了解广告和选择的相互依赖性

基本信息

批准号：
ES/V013513/1
负责人：
Rachel Griffith
金额：
$ 54.58万
依托单位：
Institute for Fiscal Studies
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2021
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2021 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV013513%2F1
关键词：
Public policy food markets understanding

项目摘要

Across the OECD, more than one in two adults and one in six children are overweight or obese, with obesity rates predicted to rise in the coming years. Obesity and poor diet contribute to a range of health problems, which increases the burden on publicly provided health services. There are substantial inequalities in the prevalence of diet related disease; for example, less educated women are two to three times more likely to be overweight than those with more education.This has led many governments to introduce fiscal and regulatory policies aimed at improving nutrition. Common policies include: taxes to raise the price of unhealthy food and drink; restricting what can be advertised and when; and limiting the availability of fast foods. There is a growing evidence base on the impacts of these forms of intervention, but it remains far from complete.In order to determine which policies are likely to be effective, we need to understand how people choose what to eat and drink, and how firms set prices, advertising and their product offering. A key component of people's purchasing behaviour is how what they buy today is affected by what they bought yesterday, or whether they saw an advert for a product last week. This dependence in decisions and experiences across time affects not only how individuals select what to buy, but also how firms set prices and choose how to advertise. Jointly, these market interactions will determine the effects of any government intervention on what's bought, and therefore what's eaten, and, ultimately, on health outcomes. Through this research we will develop methods to study these interactions, and we will apply the framework that we develop to two applications of topical policy interest.First, how does advertising affect people's food and drink purchasing choices, and how does this affect how firms choose to advertise. Modelling these decisions is challenging because of the complex and dynamic nature of advertising. If someone sees an advert for a product last week, or last month, this could still affect their decision to buy today. How it affects their decision is also complicated - does an advert for Coca Cola lead them to buy a Coke rather than Pepsi, or does it make them more likely to purchase any soft drink? Firms' decisions about how to advertise are both complex and interact with each other. Our objective is to harness data and computational developments to extend the literature to allow us to model the complexity of advertising competition in food and drink markets. Once we have estimated how people respond to advertising and how firms advertise, we can use the model to simulate counterfactual policies. For example, what would be the effect on prices, purchases and advertising if there was a change in tax policy, or advertising of certain products is restricted? These are questions that are currently of high interest to policymakers.Our second application is to study people's fast food purchases; consumption of food outside the home, and fast food in particular, is a substantial source of calories and has been linked to weight gain in children. Relatively little is known about people's patterns of fast food consumption, mainly due to a lack of data covering these choices. We aim to fill this gap by exploiting novel data on out-of-home purchases, which has the additional advantage that it is linked to the household's grocery purchases. This will allow us to study whether people with a strong preference for fast food, or who are particularly responsive to price or advertising, are also people from households that purchase many or nutritionally poor quality calories. This is crucial in determining the efficacy of targeting policy at fast food consumption and determining which type of policy to use.

在整个经合组织，超过二分之一的成年人和六分之一的儿童超重或肥胖，预计未来几年肥胖率将上升。肥胖和不良饮食造成一系列健康问题，增加了公共保健服务的负担。在与饮食有关的疾病的发病率方面存在着很大的不平等;例如，受教育程度较低的妇女超重的可能性是受教育程度较高的妇女的两到三倍，这导致许多国家的政府出台了旨在改善营养状况的财政和监管政策。共同政策包括：通过征税来提高不健康食品和饮料的价格;限制广告的内容和时间;限制快餐的供应。关于这些干预形式的影响，有越来越多的证据，但还远远没有完成。为了确定哪些政策可能有效，我们需要了解人们如何选择吃什么和喝什么，以及公司如何设定价格，广告和产品供应。人们购买行为的一个关键组成部分是他们今天购买的东西如何受到他们昨天购买的东西的影响，或者他们上周是否看到了产品的广告。随着时间的推移，这种对决策和经验的依赖不仅影响到个人如何选择购买什么，而且影响到公司如何定价和选择如何做广告。总之，这些市场互动将决定任何政府干预对买什么的影响，从而决定吃什么，最终决定健康结果。通过这项研究，我们将开发方法来研究这些相互作用，我们将应用我们开发的框架，以两个应用程序的主题政策利益。第一，广告如何影响人们的食品和饮料的购买选择，以及如何影响企业选择广告。由于广告的复杂性和动态性，对这些决策进行建模具有挑战性。如果有人在上周或上个月看到一个产品的广告，这仍然会影响他们今天的购买决定。它如何影响他们的决定也很复杂--可口可乐的广告会让他们买可乐而不是百事可乐，还是会让他们更有可能购买任何软饮料？公司关于如何做广告的决定既复杂又相互影响。我们的目标是利用数据和计算的发展来扩展文献，使我们能够模拟食品和饮料市场广告竞争的复杂性。一旦我们估计了人们对广告的反应以及公司如何做广告，我们就可以用这个模型来模拟反事实的政策。例如，如果税收政策发生变化，或某些产品的广告受到限制，对价格、购买和广告会有什么影响？我们的第二个应用是研究人们购买快餐的情况;在家庭外消费食物，特别是快餐，是卡路里的重要来源，与儿童体重增加有关。人们对快餐消费模式的了解相对较少，主要是由于缺乏涵盖这些选择的数据。我们的目标是通过利用关于户外购物的新数据来填补这一空白，这具有与家庭杂货购买相关联的额外优势。这将使我们能够研究那些强烈偏好快餐的人，或者那些对价格或广告特别敏感的人，是否也是来自购买大量或营养质量差的卡路里的家庭的人。这对于确定针对快餐消费的政策的有效性和确定使用哪种政策至关重要。