Covid-19: Industry Level Origins of Fluctuations in Growth Rates and Economic Welfare

Covid-19：增长率和经济福利波动的行业层面根源

• 批准号: ES/V015664/1
• 负责人: Harjoat Bhamra
• 金额: $ 24.91万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FV015664%2F1
• 关键词: Covid; 19; Industry; Level; Origins

The impact of the COVID-19 shock on the UK economy has been heterogeneous across sectors, suggestive of significant reallocation as the economy recovers. Government support for the economy will therefore need to be targeted at specific sectors in order to be effective.We can observe sector-level stock prices and dividends, and estimate wages, but cannot observe directly how expectations of their long-run growth rates and sector sizes have shifted in response to the COVID-19 shock. However, using an asset pricing theory model (based on an extension of work by one of the applicants [Bhamra, Kuehn and Strebulaev (2011)] we can use sector-level stock prices and dividends and wages to derive equations linking these variables to expected longrun growth rates of dividends and wages across sectors. We can hence estimate sector-level expected long-run growth rates and show how they have changed in response to the COVID-19 shock. We can also estimate the contribution of each sector to aggregate welfare in terms of labour income and consumption and show how these contributions have changed over time.By basing our analysis on asset prices, we can update our estimates of sector-level growth rates in real time. This is important, because sector-level macroeconomic data often lags events (e.g., UK sector-level data on output for February 2020 was released by the ONS on 9th April 2020). Existingwork has exploited asset prices to estimate aggregate growth rates for the US [see Gormsen & Koijen (2020)], but no such work exists at the sectoral level.

COVID-19冲击对英国经济的影响是整个部门的异质性，这表明随着经济恢复的重大重新分配。因此，为了生效，政府对经济的支持将需要针对特定​​部门。我们可以观察到行业级别的股票价格和股息，并估算工资，但无法直接观察到对其长期增长率和行业规模的期望如何响应于19 COVID-19的冲击。但是，使用资产定价理论模型（基于其中一位申请人的工作扩展[Bhamra，Kuehn和Strebulaev（2011）]，我们可以使用部门级的股票价格以及股息和工资来得出将这些变量与预期的股息和工资相关联的股息和工资的方程式，以显示他们的股息和工资。 COVID-19我们还可以估计每个部门在劳动收入和消费方面汇总福利的贡献，并显示这些贡献如何随着时间的推移而变化。通过我们的分析，我们可以在实时的数据中更新对行业级别增长的估计，因为这很重要。现有工程的ONS已利用资产价格来估计美国的总增长率[参见Gormsen＆Koijen（2020）]，但在该部门一级没有此类工作。