Why do households repay their debt during COVID 19 crisis? well-being and financial implications.

英国央行(Money and Credit，2020年6月)报告称，2020年4月，家庭偿还了74亿GB的消费信贷，这是有记录以来最大的净还款额。随着家庭选择谨慎的财务管理，由于家庭选择谨慎的财务管理，由于最近的数据还显示，家庭储蓄的增加，新冠19的封锁最初可能会改变家庭的偿债行为。唉，这种情况可能不会持续下去，因为最近的报告显示，由于疫情的爆发，英国家庭的债务敞口可能会增加60亿GB，因为他们拖欠信用卡付款、市政税和公用事业账单(卫报，6月9日，20日)。其他国家也可能出现这种情况，例如美国(英国《金融时报》6月23日至20日)。该项目探讨了更高的家庭偿债能力是否会持续下去，或者鉴于大流行病造成的严重不利经济状况，这种情况也可能是暂时的。任何有关家庭偿债模式的调查结果都会影响经济的总负债和金融稳定。因此，实时了解家庭债务偿还情况非常重要。该项目更详细地审查了疫情和政府干预对家庭债务偿还和家庭财务韧性的影响，以家庭在收入损失的情况下可以用流动资产支付自给自足消费和债务的月份来衡量。通过减少家庭支出和就业刺激计划(即休假)进行的封锁影响了债务偿还。货币扩张和暂停偿债减轻了家庭债务负担。此外，家庭特有的特征，如族裔、年龄、性别、资产、健康、就业等，也可能与上述因素相互影响。该项目使用了大量数据来分析家庭债务偿还和财务韧性，同时也考虑到政府将面临支持性干预，同时封锁也会有所不同。该项目采用了一种独特的面板向量自回归模型的创新方法，该模型嵌套了神经网络。这一方法允许研究英国家庭债务偿还、财务弹性和幸福感对COVID 19冲击和政府干预的反应，同时研究家庭财务韧性、家庭幸福感和金融稳定之间的相互联系。此外，该项目还提供了证据，以供比较和捕捉美国、加拿大、日本、法国和德国等国政府干预措施和数据的可变性。该项目的经验发现将实时为决策提供信息，而其预测具有与大流行趋势一致的中期视野。

Bank of England (Money and Credit, June 2020) reports that households repaid £7.4 bn of consumer credit in April 2020, the largest net repayment on record. The lockdowns due to COVID 19 could have initially shifted household behaviour towards debt repayments as households opt for prudent management of their finances, while recent data also show an increase in households savings. Alas, this might not persist as recent reports shows that British households could increase their debt exposure by £6bn due to the pandemic as they fall behind on credit card payments, council tax and utility bills (Guardian, 9 Jun 20). This could be also the case in other countries, i.e. US (FT, 23 Jun 20). The project explores whether higher household debt repayment would persist or it could be of transitory nature also in light of the severe adverse economic conditions due to the pandemic. Any findings on household debt repayments patterns would impact upon total indebtedness of the economy and upon financial stability. So it is of importance to understand what happens with household debt repayments in real time. In some detail, the project examines the impact of the pandemic and government interventions on household debt repayments and on household financial resilience, measured as months during which households can pay for subsistence consumption and debt with liquid assets in case of income loss. Lockdowns by reducing household spending and employment stimulus packages (i.e. furloughing) have affected debt repayments. Monetary expansion and debt repayment moratoriums have reduced household debt burdens. In addition, household specific characteristics, such as ethnicity, age, gender, assets, health, employment could interact with the above. The project uses a plethora of data to analyse household debt repayments and financial resilience also in light that supportive government interventions are going to be faced out while also lockdowns vary. The project employs an innovative methodology of a unique panel Vector Autoregressive model that nests neural networks. This methodology allows to study the responses in UK household debt repayments, financial resilience and well-being to shocks in COVID 19 and government interventions while examines the interconnectedness between household financial resilience, household well-being and financial stability. In addition, the project provides evidence, for comparison and to capture variability in government interventions and data, across countries: USA, Canada, Japan, France and Germany. The project's empirical findings would inform policy making decisions in real time while its forecasts have medium term horizon in line with the pandemic trends.