Why do juveniles commit crime? New Evidence from England's linked administrative data

青少年暴力最近在英国被广泛讨论。英国国家统计局（ONS）最近的估计显示，自1946年英国内政部凶杀指数开始统计以来，英格兰和威尔士的持刀伤人和青少年暴力事件创下了历史新高。然而，青少年犯罪的起源、动机和动态并没有得到很好的理解。增进我们对英国青少年犯罪的了解，并在强有力的证据基础上提供连贯的政策建议，是研究、政策和警务工作的优先事项。该研究项目汇集了来自伦敦经济学院（LSE）经济绩效中心（CEP）和大曼彻斯特警察局（GMP）的学者，并将分析方法应用于英国教育部（DfE）和英国司法部（MoJ）的关联数据集。这个极其丰富的数据集可以将青少年的犯罪记录与他们在全国范围内的教育轨迹信息联系起来，为增进我们对青少年暴力的理解提供了难得的机会，并有助于设计知情的警务和政策应对措施。通过合作和交互使用链接的DfE-MoJ数据集中包含的极其丰富的信息，LSE和GMP团队的目标是在当前对青少年犯罪的起源和动态的理解方面取得重大进展，并帮助将这项研究的发现转化为具体的循证政策和警务实践，从而有助于预防GMP和其他英国警察部队的青少年犯罪。这项研究提供的好处与英国行政数据研究中心（ADR UK）的核心使命直接相关，我们希望申请ADR UK“战略研究”邀请计划。我们需要英国反青少年犯罪协会提供资金，就青少年犯罪的根本原因提供严格的证据，并得出与政策相关的发现。这是当前英国政府的研究重点，当前英国政府要求将研究用于公共利益，这反映在其在青年捐赠基金的大量投资（2亿英镑）上。将研究青少年犯罪的短期和长期原因，包括学生的教育经历、接受义务教育的时间长短，以及参加旨在提高人力资本的教育计划，如识字和计算时间计划。这些研究项目的方法细节在本申请所附的支持案例中提供。通过与CEP （LSE）合作，GMP希望采取大胆创新的方法来长期解决青少年犯罪问题。虽然我们的部分分析调查了21世纪初的政策，但我们希望对这些政策进行分析，以吸取过去的教训，并得出适用于今天的警务处方。我们将经常交流知识，并推进可持续的伙伴关系，从而确保最大限度地利用DfE-MoJ管理数据集。从研究创建的早期阶段起，我们就会让GMP、ADR UK、DfE、Home Office和MoJ的分析师参与进来，我们愿意与ADR UK合作，修改我们的研究工作和工作实践，以最好地适应ADR UK的需求和优先事项。GMP对英国青少年犯罪动态的熟悉，以及LSE团队的分析能力，将使我们能够充分利用DfE-MoJ数据集的全部潜力，提高我们对青少年犯罪根源的认识和理解，并使重要的研究能够以可持续的方式改善警务服务。我们将尽可能广泛地将我们的研究结果传播给其他英国警察部队，因为我们希望从这次合作中吸取的经验教训也适用于英国的其他环境，并为其他地方的青少年暴力行为的警务反应提供指导，从而最终确保这项研究的社会影响。

Youth violence has been widely discussed recently in the UK. Recent estimates from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that fatal stabbings and youth violence have hit a record high in England and Wales since the Home Office Homicide Index began in 1946. However, the origins, motivations and dynamics of youth crime are not well understood. Advancing our understanding of youth crime in the UK and offering coherent policy advice based on a robust evidence base is a priority for research, policy and policing. This research project brings together academics from the Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) at the London School of Economics (LSE) and the Greater Manchester Police (GMP) and it applies analytical methods to the linked dataset from the UK Department for Education (DfE) and the UK Ministry of Justice (MoJ). This extremely rich dataset enables linking of criminal records of juveniles with information on their educational trajectory on a national scale, providing the rare opportunity to advance our understanding of youth violence and help the design of informed policing and policy responses. By partnering and using interactively the extremely rich information contained in the linked DfE-MoJ dataset, the LSE and GMP teams aim to make a significant advancement to the current understanding of the origins and dynamics of youth crime, and to help translate the findings of this research into concrete evidence-based policy and policing practices that can help prevent youth crime in GMP and other UK police forces. The benefit provided by this research relates directly to the core mission of the Administrative Data Research UK (ADR UK), and we wish to apply to the ADR UK 'Strategic Research' Invite-Only Scheme. We need funding from ADR UK to produce rigorous evidence on the root causes of youth crime and to derive policy-relevant findings. This is a research priority for the current UK Government and demand from the current UK Government to use the research for the public good is reflected by its large investment (£200 million GBPs) in the Youth Endowment Fund. Both the short- and long-term causes of youth crime will be studied, including the educational experience of pupils, the length of exposure to compulsory schooling, and exposure to schooling programmes aimed at boosting human capital such as the Literacy and Numeracy Hour programmes. The methodological details of these research projects are provided in the Case for Support attached to this application.By partnering with CEP (LSE), GMP wants to adopt a bold, innovative approach to tackle youth crime over the long term. While part of our analysis investigates policies from the early 2000s, we would like to analyse these to learn from the past and derive policing prescriptions for today. We will frequently exchange knowledge and we will advance a sustainable partnership, thus ensuring the use of the linked DfE-MoJ administrative dataset is maximised. We will involve analysts from GMP, ADR UK, DfE, Home Office and MoJ since the early stages of research creation, and we are willing to collaborate with ADR UK to modify our research effort and working practices in order to best suit the ADR UK's needs and priorities. The familiarity of GMP with the dynamics of youth crime in the UK and the analytical capacity of the LSE team will allow us to exploit the full potential of the linked DfE-MoJ dataset, advance our knowledge and understanding of the roots of youth crime, and enable vital research that has the potential to improve policing services in a sustainable manner. We will disseminate our findings to other UK Police Forces as widely as possible, as we expect the lessons learnt from this collaboration to apply also to other settings in the UK and provide guidance in deciding on policing responses to youth violence also elsewhere, thus ultimately ensuring the societal impact of this research.