Understanding herd immunity for influenza using archived sera from the UK and mathematical models

使用英国存档血清和数学模型了解流感的群体免疫

• 批准号: MR/J008761/1
• 负责人: Steven Riley
• 金额: $ 122.47万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FJ008761%2F1
• 关键词: Understanding; herd; immunity; influenza; using

The 2009 pandemic highlighted some real problems with how scientists and governments monitor influenza. Up-to-now, they have counted numbers of people who go to their doctor or the hospital with flu-like symptoms. But this doesn't tell us about the mild cases.Mild cases are important because of something called 'herd immunity'. During any epidemic, the number of new cases starts to go down when there are not enough susceptible people to keep 'the fire' of the epidemic going. People with mild or no symptoms are just as good at stopping the epidemic as people with symptoms. So, to be able to understand how big an influenza epidemic might be, we need to measure mild cases as well.We can do this if we take blood and test for antibodies. In this project, we want to test anonymous blood samples for influenza that were discarded in the late 1990s and early 2000s. By doing 10s of 1000s of tests on these old samples, we can see exactly how useful the data on mild cases might be for future epidemics and we can answer interesting questions about different influenza strains. There were three different types of influenza circulating in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Two types of influenza A and one was influenza B. Two of those three are still circulating now (A/H3N2 and B). One of them was replaced by the pandemic strain (A/H1N1). We want to compare and contract these three types.We will use mathematical models to analyze the data from the blood tests. Models help us to figure out why an epidemic occurred or was as big as it was, rather than just describing it. We can look at important basic questions like: is flu B less serious infection that influenza A; and if you get a mild infection of flu you can get infected again more quickly than if you get a serious infection?

2009年的流感大流行凸显了科学家和政府如何监测流感的一些真实的问题。到目前为止，他们已经统计了有流感样症状去看医生或去医院的人数。但这并不能告诉我们轻度病例的情况。轻度病例之所以重要，是因为有一种叫做“群体免疫”的东西。在任何流行病期间，当没有足够的易感人群来保持流行病的“火焰”时，新病例的数量开始下降。症状轻微或没有症状的人与有症状的人一样善于阻止流行病。因此，为了了解流感疫情的规模，我们也需要测量轻度病例。我们可以通过抽血检测抗体来做到这一点。在这个项目中，我们想测试在20世纪90年代末和21世纪初被丢弃的匿名血液样本。通过对这些旧样本进行10/1000次测试，我们可以确切地看到轻度病例的数据对未来流行病的有用性，我们可以回答有关不同流感病毒株的有趣问题。在20世纪90年代末和21世纪初，有三种不同类型的流感流行。两种甲型流感，一种是B型流感。这三种病毒中有两种目前仍在传播（A/H3 N2和B）。其中一个被大流行毒株（A/H1N1）取代。我们要比较和对比这三种类型，我们将使用数学模型来分析血液测试的数据。模型可以帮助我们找出为什么会发生流行病，或者为什么会有这么大的流行病，而不仅仅是描述它，我们可以研究一些重要的基本问题，比如：B型流感是否比A型流感不那么严重;如果你感染了轻微的流感，你会比严重的流感更快地再次感染。

项目成果

Characteristics and predictors of persistent symptoms post-COVID-19 in children and young people: a large community cross-sectional study in England.

• DOI: 10.1136/archdischild-2022-325152
• 发表时间: 2023-07
• 期刊: ARCHIVES OF DISEASE IN CHILDHOOD
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Atchison, Christina J.;Whitaker, Matthew;Donnelly, Christl A.;Chadeau-Hyam, Marc;Riley, Steven;Darzi, Ara;Ashby, Deborah;Barclay, Wendy;Cooke, Graham S.;Elliott, Paul;Ward, Helen
• 通讯作者: Ward, Helen

Global circulation patterns of seasonal influenza viruses vary with antigenic drift.

• DOI: 10.1038/nature14460
• 发表时间: 2015-07-09
• 期刊: NATURE
• 影响因子: 64.8
• 作者: Bedford, Trevor;Riley, Steven;Barr, Ian G.;Broor, Shobha;Chadha, Mandeep;Cox, Nancy J.;Daniels, Rodney S.;Gunasekaran, C. Palani;Hurt, Aeron C.;Kelso, Anne;Klimov, Alexander;Lewis, Nicola S.;Li, Xiyan;McCauley, John W.;Odagiri, Takato;Potdar, Varsha;Rambaut, Andrew;Shu, Yuelong;Skepner, Eugene;Smith, Derek J.;Suchard, Marc A.;Tashiro, Masato;Wang, Dayan;Xu, Xiyan;Lemey, Philippe;Russell, Colin A.
• 通讯作者: Russell, Colin A.

Validity of Self-testing at Home With Rapid Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Antibody Detection by Lateral Flow Immunoassay.

• DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciac629
• 发表时间: 2023-02-18
• 期刊: Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America

Spatial inflection and memory for direction in Acazulco Otomí

Acazulco Otomá 中的空间变化和方向记忆

• DOI: 10.1080/03740463.2018.1433905
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Acta Linguistica Hafniensia
• 作者: Boeg Thomsen D

Transmission scenarios for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and how to tell them apart.

• DOI: 10.2807/ese.18.24.20503-en
• 发表时间: 2013-06
• 期刊: Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin
• 作者: S. Cauchemez;M. D. Kerkhove;S. Riley;C. Donnelly;C. Fraser;N. Ferguson