A multi-country analysis of temperature-mortality associations from a climate change perspective

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

Non-optimal outdoor temperature is a known risk factor for human health, with increased mortality risk associated with both high and low exposures. Several studies have attempted to quantify the related impact in a changing climate, considering the predicted increase in average temperature and extreme weather events. However, temperature-mortality associations show a substantial geographical and temporal heterogeneity that is still largely unexplained, and little is known about the factors determining vulnerability or resilience of populations to the effects of temperature. This information is critical to produce reliable impact projections under climate change, and to develop effective public health policies to attenuate the health burden. This project aims to address these research gaps by offering a systematic evaluation of the association and future impact of temperature on mortality across populations with markedly different characteristics. This project benefits from the availability of the largest data set ever collected for this purpose, including data from 384 locations within 13 countries between 1972 and 2012. Analyses will be based on flexible analytical methods recently developed for modelling complex temperature-health relationships. A first assessment will explore the role of climatological, demographic, socio-economic and infrastructural characteristics in modifying the mortality risk of temperature. This information will be used in second assessment to project the impact under composite scenarios accounting for potential changes in susceptibility due to secular trends and implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. This project will provide a comprehensive characterization of the health effects of temperature and the related climate change impact, and a platform to quantitatively evaluate the benefits of alternative public health policies and adaptation measures.