Constraints on the tempo and magnitude of explosive arc volcanism: facilitating long-term ash fall hazard assessments

对弧形火山爆发速度和强度的限制：促进长期火山灰坠落危险评估

• 批准号: MR/S035478/1
• 负责人: Paul Albert
• 金额: $ 138.2万
• 依托单位: Swansea University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2019 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FS035478%2F1
• 关键词: Constraints; tempo; magnitude; explosive; arc

Explosive volcanic eruptions have devastating impacts in near-vent areas where pyroclastic density currents can cause significant loss of life, yet the injection of large volumes of ash into the atmosphere and its subsequent dispersal over hundreds to thousands of kilometres, pose significant and far-reaching hazards. Ash fall is a severe and wide-ranging volcanic hazard; causing roof collapse, health (respiratory) and agricultural issues and wide-scale interruptions to essential infrastructure (e.g., electricity, food/water supplies; roads and rail closures). Even ash emitted during moderately explosive eruptions can ground air traffic as was demonstrated by the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption (Iceland). As such widespread volcanic ash dispersals present huge economic and societal costs. Disturbingly, 800 million people live within 100 km of active volcanoes globally, yet statistical studies of detailed eruption databases (e.g., Japan) reveal significant under-recording of past volcanic eruptions deeper in time. Our understanding of the magnitude and frequency of eruptions at a particular volcano is typically skewed to recent activities, because records of older eruptions are fragmentary often owing to erosion and/or burial by more recent eruptions. The better-preserved, shorter-term records, however, do not necessarily reflect the full range of volcanic activity, or variations in the tempo of activity. This is a major obstacle for long-term volcanic hazard assessments and hampers our ability to: i) determine changing eruption-rates through time, ii) evaluate magnitude-frequency relationships and iii) project the recurrence intervals of hazardous ash dispersals.This research will overcome this impasse and reconstruct comprehensive long-term records of explosive volcanism for productive arc volcanoes. It will exploit the under-utilised record of ash layers preserved in dense networks of marine sediment cores. These continuous sequences represent unprecedented repositories of ash fall (preserved as visible and microscopic deposits), which are not susceptible to destructive near-source processes. Using state-of-the-art geochemical 'fingerprinting' techniques, it is possible to pinpoint the volcanic source of the marine ash layers, whilst tracing these ash fall events across a network of cores provides a unique opportunity to computationally model and map ash dispersals, and calculate eruption magnitudes. Cutting-edge argon-argon dating techniques to directly date the ash deposits, will reveal the tempo of past explosive eruptions at an individual volcano, and importantly determine the recurrence intervals of widespread hazardous volcanic ash dispersals from these volcanoes. With evidence for near-source under-reporting of explosive volcanic activity emanating from Japanese eruption records, this research will begin by utilising a wealth of marine sediment records from around the Japanese Islands, including those of the International Ocean Discovery Programme (IODP) and the Geological Survey of Japan (AIST). This research will then look to expand into other productive volcanic arc settings, particularly those that are vulnerable owing to inadequate records of explosive volcanism (e.g., circum-Pacific volcanic arcs). These new offshore volcanological records will be examined in partnership with those directly responsible for hazard/risk assessments at individual volcanoes and policy-makers working in this field.

爆炸性火山喷发对近喷口地区产生毁灭性影响，那里的火山碎屑密度流可能造成重大生命损失，但大量火山灰注入大气并随后散布数百至数千公里，构成重大且深远的危害。火山灰是一种严重和广泛的火山灾害;造成屋顶坍塌，健康（呼吸）和农业问题以及基本基础设施（例如，电力、食品/水供应;道路和铁路关闭）。即使是在中等爆炸性喷发中释放的火山灰也会使空中交通瘫痪，2010年冰岛埃亚菲亚德拉火山爆发就是明证。因此，火山灰的广泛散布造成了巨大的经济和社会成本。令人不安的是，全球有8亿人生活在离活火山100公里的范围内，但对详细火山爆发数据库的统计研究（例如，日本）揭示了过去火山爆发的记录严重不足。我们对某个火山喷发的规模和频率的了解通常偏向于最近的活动，因为较早的火山喷发记录不完整，往往是由于最近的火山喷发造成的侵蚀和（或）掩埋。然而，保存较好的短期记录并不一定反映火山活动的全部范围或活动克里思的变化。这是长期火山灾害评估的一个主要障碍，妨碍了我们的以下能力：i）确定随时间变化的喷发率，ii）评价震级-频率关系，iii）预测有害火山灰扩散的重复间隔，这项研究将克服这一僵局，重建多产弧火山爆发性火山活动的全面长期记录。它将利用保存在密集的海洋沉积物岩心网络中的未充分利用的灰层记录。这些连续的序列代表了前所未有的火山灰降落库（保存为可见和微观沉积物），这些火山灰不易受到破坏性近源过程的影响。使用最先进的地球化学“指纹”技术，可以精确定位海洋灰层的火山源，同时在核心网络中追踪这些灰落事件提供了一个独特的机会来计算模型和地图灰扩散，并计算喷发幅度。尖端的氩-氩测年技术直接测定火山灰沉积物的年代，将揭示单个火山过去爆炸性喷发的克里思，并重要地确定这些火山广泛危险的火山灰散布的复发间隔。有证据表明，近源低报的爆发性火山活动源自日本的喷发记录，这项研究将开始利用丰富的海洋沉积物记录，从日本群岛周围，包括国际海洋发现计划（IODP）和日本地质调查局（AIST）。然后，这项研究将扩大到其他生产性火山弧环境，特别是那些由于爆炸性火山活动记录不足而脆弱的环境（例如，环太平洋火山弧）。将与直接负责个别火山危险/风险评估的人员和在这一领域工作的决策者合作，对这些新的近海火山记录进行审查。

项目成果

Cryptotephra preserved in Lake Suigetsu (SG14 core) reveals the eruption timing and distribution of ash fall from Japanese volcanoes during the late-glacial to early Holocene

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108376
• 发表时间: 2024-01
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: P. Albert;D. McLean;Hannah M. Buckland;Takehiko Suzuki;Gwydion Jones;R. Staff;Sophie Vineberg;I. Kitaba;Keitaro Yamada;Hiroshi Moriwaki;Daisuke Ishimura;K. Ikehara;Christina J. Manning;Takeshi Nakagawa;Victoria C. Smith

Frequent activity on Vulcano (Italy) spanning the last 80 ky: New insights from the chemo-stratigraphy of the Brown Tuffs

• DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2020.107079
• 发表时间: 2020-11
• 期刊: Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: S. Meschiari;P. Albert;F. Lucchi;R. Sulpizio;V. Smith;R. Kearney;C. Tranne

Evidence for a large-magnitude Holocene eruption of Mount Rittmann (Antarctica): A volcanological reconstruction using the marine tephra record

里特曼山（南极洲）全新世大规模喷发的证据：利用海洋火山灰记录进行火山学重建

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106629
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Di Roberto A

Distal ash fall from the mid-Holocene eruption of Mount Hudson (H2) discovered in the Falkland Islands: New possibilities for Southern Hemisphere archive synchronisation

在福克兰群岛发现的哈德逊山（H2）全新世中期喷发的远端火山灰：南半球档案同步的新可能性

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2021.107074
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Panaretos P

Linking the Mediterranean MIS 5 tephra markers to Campi Flegrei (southern Italy) 109-92 ka explosive activity and refining the chronology of MIS 5c-d millennial-scale climate variability

将地中海 MIS 5 火山灰标记与 Campi Flegrei（意大利南部）109-92 k​​a 爆炸活动联系起来，并完善 MIS 5c-d 千禧年尺度气候变化的年表

• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103785
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Global and Planetary Change
• 影响因子: 3.9
• 作者: Monaco L