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Risk Assuring Future Structure Critical Systems: Combining 21st Century Science with Engineering Intuition

确保未来结构关键系统的风险：将 21 世纪科学与工程直觉相结合

基本信息

批准号：
MR/T02058X/1
负责人：
Daniel James Cogswell
金额：
$ 321.63万
依托单位：
University of Sheffield
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Fellowship
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FT02058X%2F1
关键词：
Risk Assuring Future Structure Critical

项目摘要

As you read this you are probably sitting down. When you sat down, were you concerned that the chair would fail? You likely did not even consider it as you may have sat in this same chair hundreds, if not thousands of times before. You used your empirical knowledge that this chair is safe for you to sit in. What if this was a new chair to you? If the chair was brand new, you would take comfort in the fact that the chair has been manufactured to a standard and been subject to some level of quality control. If the chair belongs to an organisation then you would expect that organisation to take responsibility if the chair failed and would have been replaced if reported by another user.Failure of the chair will, very rarely, be due to a poor design. The chair will be able to withstand any expected loads assuming that it has been manufactured correctly; however, the material that it is made from will be inherently variable and contain defects that are not always apparent at the point of a manufacturing inspection. The degree of that material variability may be slight and the defect sizing understood, but making sure that the design takes account of this variability through life (especially when the chair is mistreated) is often not considered. To some extent we are all materials engineers when we make a judgement that the chair appears to be 'sturdy' before we sit down, but we do this based on our empirical knowledge and not on the science that is available to us. Are you sure the next time you sit in the chair it won't fail? Your empirical knowledge only informs you of what happened last time not what 'will' happen in the future. The application of materials science knowledge will inform the future performance. Bridging the gap between the atomistic world of materials science that defines the best estimate of mechanical performance and the bounding estimates required in materials engineering that takes account of the variability and defects is key to improving trust in applying materials science to engineering structures.Assurance is about the trust that we place that the quality system has not failed. The chair may have been subject to a level of quality control before it left the factory, at this stage we need to have trust in the manufacturer. If the chair belongs to an individual or organisation, we trust that as responsible owners, that they would replace the chair if broken and that they have systems in place to check if the chair is broken before someone sits on it.This fellowship is about developing a similar level of trust for future high integrity or critical applications. We cannot use empirical knowledge, i.e. we don't have thousands of years of experience with building fusion reactors or producing high integrity power transmission systems for aerospace applications, so we must use science. Developing a similar level of trust in the predictive modelling capability in the application of materials science to these complex and high value systems, to the empirical knowledge we all have of our usual chair is key to unlocking the public trust in the safe performance of future critical systems.

当您阅读本文时，您可能正在坐下。当你坐下时，你担心椅子会坏吗？您可能甚至没有考虑过这一点，因为您之前可能已经坐在同一张椅子上数百次甚至数千次。您根据经验知道这把椅子对您来说坐起来是安全的。如果这对您来说是一把新椅子怎么办？如果椅子是全新的，您会感到放心，因为椅子是按照标准制造的，并且经过一定程度的质量控制。如果椅子属于某个组织，那么您会期望该组织在椅子发生故障时承担责任，并且如果其他用户报告该椅子，则该组织将被更换。椅子的故障很少是由于设计不良造成的。假设制造正确，椅子将能够承受任何预期的负载；然而，其制造材料本质上是可变的，并且包含在制造检查时并不总是明显的缺陷。材料变异性的程度可能很小，并且可以理解缺陷尺寸，但通常不会考虑确保设计考虑到整个生命周期的这种变异性（特别是当椅子被滥用时）。在某种程度上，当我们在坐下之前判断椅子看起来“坚固”时，我们都是材料工程师，但我们这样做是基于我们的经验知识，而不是我们现有的科学。你确定下次你坐在椅子上时它不会失败吗？你的经验知识只能告诉你上次发生了什么，而不是未来“将”发生什么。材料科学知识的应用将为未来的性能提供信息。弥合定义机械性能最佳估计的材料科学原子世界与考虑可变性和缺陷的材料工程所需的边界估计之间的差距，是提高将材料科学应用于工程结构的信任的关键。保证是指我们对质量体系没有失败的信任。椅子在出厂前可能已经经过一定程度的质量控制，在这个阶段我们需要对制造商有信任。如果椅子属于个人或组织，我们相信，作为负责任的所有者，如果椅子坏了，他们会更换椅子，并且他们有适当的系统，可以在有人坐在椅子上之前检查椅子是否损坏。该奖学金旨在为未来的高完整性或关键应用建立类似水平的信任。我们不能使用经验知识，即我们没有数千年建造聚变反应堆或生产用于航空航天应用的高完整性电力传输系统的经验，因此我们必须使用科学。在将材料科学应用于这些复杂且高价值的系统时，对预测建模能力以及我们平时所拥有的经验知识建立类似水平的信任，是解除公众对未来关键系统安全性能信任的关键。