Rethinking Palaeoclimatology for Society

在传播气候科学家产生的信息和决策者需要的证据方面存在公认的差距，部分原因是通过研究影响政策是复杂的，需要的技能在研究系统中可能不受重视或不常见。我们地球系统的现状，以及争取气候正义的社会运动，敦促政策和科学家在如何应对气候变化方面做出重大改变。通过这项奖学金，我将为古气候学的影响开辟新的途径，并将在我的研究领域中迈出重要的一步。年度到十年的气候预测可以为气候服务和环境机构提供重要的信息，这将有助于指导短期和中期的气候变化战略。例如，更好地了解英国洪水的频率和规模。对地表温度的年代际气候预测是熟练的，但对大气格局和相关生态系统响应预测的信心就不那么强了。这在一定程度上是因为现有的仪器数据（再分析）难以验证年代际气候响应的幅度，这些数据只能追溯到一两个世纪以前，而且叠加的低频变率的影响可能无法很好地反映出来。提供关于年代际气候响应的更多信息的一种方法是在重新分析中包括高时间分辨率的古气候时间序列。到目前为止，适合这一目的的代用数据的可用性受到数据性质（定性与定量）、年代限制（代用记录的测年不确定性和时间分辨率）和代用记录的地理位置（即仅限于特定的气候区域，如冰芯和珊瑚）的限制，因此对过去年代用气候变率的研究仍处于起步阶段。为了在这一领域取得进展，我将领导一个由古气候学家和气候模型学家组成的国际研究小组。我们将结合代理发展、时间限制、统计工具和数据模型比较等新兴方法，提供北大西洋-欧洲地区过去十年气候变化的先进信息，如大气环流的变化和极端天气事件的发生；我们将根据过去的气候情景开发紧急约束条件，并将其应用于十年预测系统。除了科学目标之外，该奖学金的目标是更好地将古证据整合到气候政策中，从而在政策和利益相关者如何看待和使用长期气候数据方面产生一个阶段性的变化。我们将建立一个由政策顾问、政策制定者和其他愿意参与的最终用户组成的网络。我们将采用共同发展的研究模式，在设计研究成果时建立共识，并确保研究能够满足各部门决策者的具体和当前需求。最终的挑战是在伦敦皇家霍洛威大学建立一个领先的古气候证据政策中心，以：(1)建立一个古气候服务机构，为政策制定者提供证据，以协助决策；(2)支持英国和海外的古气候学家进行影响案例研究；(3)培养下一代早期职业研究人员的政策技能。该奖学金还将探索以艺术为基础的影响方法。特别是创意写作，以促进幼儿的气候科学素养。

There is a recognised gap in the communication of information generated by climate scientists and evidence needed by policy makers, in part because influencing policy through research is complex and requires skills that might not be valued or common in research systems. The current situation of our Earth's system, together with the social movements for climate justice, urge a step change in how policy and scientists approach Climate Change. Through this fellowship, I will develop new routes for impact in palaeoclimatology and will lead a vital step change in my field of research. Annual to decadal climate predictions may offer important information to Climate Services and Environmental Agencies, which would help guide short- and medium-term climate change strategies. For example, a better knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of floods in the UK. Decadal climate predictions are skilful for surface temperature, but confidence in projections of atmospheric pattern and the associated ecosystem response are less robust. This is, in part, because the amplitude of the decadal climate response is difficult to verify by the available instrumental data (reanalyses), which only goes back a century or two, and the impact of superimposed low-frequency variability might not be well represented. One way to provide more information on the decadal climate response is to include high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate timeseries in reanalyses. So far, the availability of proxy data suitable for this purpose is limited by the nature of the data (qualitative vs quantitative), chronological constrains (dating uncertainty and time-resolution of the proxy records) and geographical location of the proxy records (i.e limited to specific climate regions as ice-cores and corals), hence the study of decadal climate variability in the past is still in its infancy. In order to make developments in this field, I will lead an international research team that integrates palaeoclimatologists and climate modellers. We will combine emerging methodological approaches in proxy developments, chronological constraints, statistical tools and data-model comparison to provide advanced information of past decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic-European region such as shifting atmospheric circulation and occurrence of extreme weather events; and we will develop emergent constraints based on past climate scenarios to be applied to decadal prediction systems. Beyond the scientific goals, the fellowship aims at a better integration of palaeo evidence into climate policy to create a step change in how long-term climate data are viewed and used by policy and stakeholders. We will create a network of policy advisers, policy makers and other end users willing to engage. A co-development model of research will be adopted to develop shared understanding to design the research outputs, and ensure the research contributes to the specific and current needs of the decision makers across various sectors. The ultimate challenge is to create a leading centre for Palaeo Evidence for Policy at Royal Holloway University of London to: (1) build a palaeo-climate service feeding policy makers with evidence to assist decision-making; (2) support palaeoclimatologists in the UK and overseas to make impact cases studies; (3) train the next generation of early career researchers in policy skills.The fellowship will also explore art-based methods for impact. In particular, creative writing to promote climate science literacy for young children.