Rethinking Palaeoclimatology for Society

重新思考社会古气候学

• 批准号: MR/W009641/1
• 负责人: Celia Martin Puertas
• 金额: $ 194.85万
• 依托单位: Royal Holloway University of London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FW009641%2F1
• 关键词: Rethinking; Palaeoclimatology; Society

There is a recognised gap in the communication of information generated by climate scientists and evidence needed by policy makers, in part because influencing policy through research is complex and requires skills that might not be valued or common in research systems. The current situation of our Earth's system, together with the social movements for climate justice, urge a step change in how policy and scientists approach Climate Change. Through this fellowship, I will develop new routes for impact in palaeoclimatology and will lead a vital step change in my field of research. Annual to decadal climate predictions may offer important information to Climate Services and Environmental Agencies, which would help guide short- and medium-term climate change strategies. For example, a better knowledge of the frequency and magnitude of floods in the UK. Decadal climate predictions are skilful for surface temperature, but confidence in projections of atmospheric pattern and the associated ecosystem response are less robust. This is, in part, because the amplitude of the decadal climate response is difficult to verify by the available instrumental data (reanalyses), which only goes back a century or two, and the impact of superimposed low-frequency variability might not be well represented. One way to provide more information on the decadal climate response is to include high-temporal resolution palaeoclimate timeseries in reanalyses. So far, the availability of proxy data suitable for this purpose is limited by the nature of the data (qualitative vs quantitative), chronological constrains (dating uncertainty and time-resolution of the proxy records) and geographical location of the proxy records (i.e limited to specific climate regions as ice-cores and corals), hence the study of decadal climate variability in the past is still in its infancy. In order to make developments in this field, I will lead an international research team that integrates palaeoclimatologists and climate modellers. We will combine emerging methodological approaches in proxy developments, chronological constraints, statistical tools and data-model comparison to provide advanced information of past decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic-European region such as shifting atmospheric circulation and occurrence of extreme weather events; and we will develop emergent constraints based on past climate scenarios to be applied to decadal prediction systems. Beyond the scientific goals, the fellowship aims at a better integration of palaeo evidence into climate policy to create a step change in how long-term climate data are viewed and used by policy and stakeholders. We will create a network of policy advisers, policy makers and other end users willing to engage. A co-development model of research will be adopted to develop shared understanding to design the research outputs, and ensure the research contributes to the specific and current needs of the decision makers across various sectors. The ultimate challenge is to create a leading centre for Palaeo Evidence for Policy at Royal Holloway University of London to: (1) build a palaeo-climate service feeding policy makers with evidence to assist decision-making; (2) support palaeoclimatologists in the UK and overseas to make impact cases studies; (3) train the next generation of early career researchers in policy skills.The fellowship will also explore art-based methods for impact. In particular, creative writing to promote climate science literacy for young children.

在气候科学家产生的信息和政策制定者所需的证据之间存在着公认的差距，部分原因是通过研究影响政策是复杂的，需要的技能在研究系统中可能不受重视或不常见。我们地球系统的现状，以及气候正义的社会运动，敦促政策和科学家如何应对气候变化。通过这项奖学金，我将开发新的路线，在古气候学的影响，并将导致在我的研究领域的一个重要步骤的变化。年度到十年期的气候预测可以为气候服务和环境机构提供重要信息，这将有助于指导短期和中期气候变化战略。例如，更好地了解英国洪水的频率和规模。十年期气候预测对于地表温度是熟练的，但对大气模式和相关生态系统响应的预测的信心则不那么强。这部分是因为十年气候响应的幅度很难用现有的仪器数据（再分析）来核实，这些数据只能追溯到一两个世纪，叠加的低频变率的影响可能没有得到很好的体现。提供更多关于年代际气候响应的信息的一种方法是在再分析中包括高时间分辨率的古气候时间序列。到目前为止，适用于这一目的的代用数据的可用性受到数据性质（定性与定量）、年代学约束（年代测定的不确定性和代用记录的时间分辨率）和代用记录的地理位置（即限于特定的气候区域，如冰芯和珊瑚）的限制，因此过去年代际气候变率的研究仍处于起步阶段。为了在这一领域取得进展，我将领导一个国际研究小组，将古气候学家和气候建模者结合起来。我们将结合联合收割机在代理发展，时间约束，统计工具和数据模型比较，以提供先进的信息，过去十年的气候变化在北大西洋-欧洲地区，如移动大气环流和极端天气事件的发生，我们将开发紧急约束的基础上，过去的气候情景，应用于十年预测系统。除了科学目标之外，该研究金还旨在更好地将古证据纳入气候政策，以逐步改变政策和利益攸关方如何看待和使用长期气候数据。我们将建立一个由政策顾问、决策者和其他愿意参与的最终用户组成的网络。将采用共同发展的研究模式，以建立共同的理解，设计研究成果，并确保研究有助于各部门决策者的具体和当前需求。最终的挑战是在伦敦的皇家霍洛威大学建立一个领先的古气候证据政策中心，以：（1）建立一个古气候服务，为决策者提供证据，以协助决策;（2）支持英国和海外的古气候学家进行影响案例研究;（3）培训下一代的早期职业研究人员的政策技能。该奖学金还将探索以艺术为基础的影响方法。特别是，创造性的写作，以促进气候科学素养的幼儿。

项目成果

The timing of the deglaciation in the Atlantic Iberian mountains: Insights from the stratigraphic analysis of a lake sequence in Serra da Estrela (Portugal)

大西洋伊比利亚山脉冰消期的时间：对埃什特雷拉山脉（葡萄牙）湖泊序列的地层分析的见解

• DOI: 10.1002/esp.5536
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Earth Surface Processes and Landforms
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Hernández A

Dampened predictable decadal North Atlantic climate fluctuations due to ice melting

由于冰融化抑制了可预测的北大西洋十年气候波动

• DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01145-y
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Nature Geoscience
• 影响因子: 18.3
• 作者: Martin-Puertas C

Remotely sensing potential climate change tipping points across scales.

• DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-44609-w
• 发表时间: 2024-01-06
• 期刊: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Lenton, Timothy M.;Abrams, Jesse F.;Bartsch, Annett;Bathiany, Sebastian;Boulton, Chris A.;Buxton, Joshua E.;Conversi, Alessandra;Cunliffe, Andrew M.;Hebden, Sophie;Lavergne, Thomas;Poulter, Benjamin;Shepherd, Andrew;Smith, Taylor;Swingedouw, Didier;Winkelmann, Ricarda;Boers, Niklas
• 通讯作者: Boers, Niklas