Reframing non-CO2 climate mitigation approaches to limit global warming

重新制定非二氧化碳气候缓解方法以限制全球变暖

• 批准号: MR/W010577/1
• 负责人: Michelle Cain
• 金额: $ 99.1万
• 依托单位: CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FW010577%2F1
• 关键词: Reframing; non; CO2; climate; mitigation

About a decade ago, our thinking on climate mitigation dramatically changed with the concept of carbon budgets. This made clear that reducing CO2 emissions was not enough - we had to eliminate them completely or simply reach our maximum budget (and temperature) more slowly. My vision for this fellowship is to bring a similar sea-change in attitude towards non-CO2 contributors to global warming, especially short-lived pollutants like methane. As with the carbon budget concept, the missing piece currently is a simple and transparent way to accurately represent the complexities of the climate. With the Paris Agreement, countries have agreed on a global aspiration to limit global warming to well below 2C. Some countries, cities, sector organisations and companies have announced 'net zero' targets, or at least have emissions reductions targets. However, these targets are currently not enough combined to achieve the Paris temperature goal. Further, in most cases they are ambiguous with regard to the details of the target. Not only does this cause uncertainty in analysing the expected global warming from achieving the targets, it suggests that detailed plans of action are not in place. A critical element of my research is to bring in one of the key uncertainties, short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and aerosol, into an evaluation framework. Traditional methods used to calculate 'CO2-equivalence' do not accurately represent methane's potent and short lived impact on climate. My proposed work using 'CO2-warming-equivalence' (CO2-we) will enable methane's strong short-lived, and much weaker long-lived, impacts to be assessed. This means temperature impacts in 2030, 2050 and 2100 can all be accurately evaluated within one framework for short and long lived pollutants. The 'CO2-warming-equivalence' method is designed to identify the CO2 emissions that would generate the same warming over time as the original methane emission. I will use CO2-we to define the concept of an 'all forcing budget', analogous to the 'carbon budget', which is used by the UK government to limit CO2 emissions. (A 'forcing' is anything that disturbs the climate system's energy balance.) The key elements of this programme are:-Metrics for climate mitigation: I will further develop my work on CO2-we to incorporate all GHG fluxes, aerosol and albedo change, and into a budget framework. The metrics used will be updated and developed to ensure they reproduce the latest understanding from complex climate models for all forcings.-Climate policy: CO2-we will be used as a tool to explore several concepts in climate policy, including a temperature-based fair share analysis for all GHG emissions and countries' national targets under the Paris Agreement. Qualitative methods will be used to investigate the definition of and intention behind organisation-level net-zero (or equivalent) climate targets.-Climate mitigation in the agricultural sector: I will work with stakeholders to develop a new model for assessing mitigation options in the agricultural sector. This will be based on previous work carried out in Cranfield, combined with the metrics described above, and practical knowledge from farmers as to what is feasible on farm. This research will reflect the impact of agriculture on temperature, which most methods do not at present assess. The tools developed in this programme will enable decision makers to accurately evaluate the impact of different actions on temperature over different timescales, to help the decision making process. Unless decision makers are using climate models to simulate mitigation actions, this is currently not an analysis that is available to them. My tools will be quicker and simpler to run than even simple climate models currently are, thus making the analysis available even in the absence of computing skills.

大约十年前，随着碳预算的概念，我们对减缓气候变化的看法发生了巨大变化。这清楚地表明，减少二氧化碳排放是不够的——我们必须完全消除它们，或者只是更慢地达到我们的最大预算（和温度）。我对这项研究的愿景是，在对待非二氧化碳导致全球变暖的因素，尤其是像甲烷这样的短期污染物的态度上，带来类似的巨变。与碳预算概念一样，目前缺少的是一种简单而透明的方式来准确地反映气候的复杂性。根据《巴黎协定》，各国已就将全球变暖控制在远低于2摄氏度的全球目标达成一致。一些国家、城市、行业组织和公司已经宣布了“净零”目标，或者至少有减排目标。然而，目前这些目标加起来还不足以实现巴黎的温度目标。此外，在大多数情况下，它们对于目标的细节是模糊的。这不仅在分析实现目标的预期全球变暖时造成了不确定性，而且表明详细的行动计划还没有到位。我研究的一个关键要素是将一个关键的不确定性因素，短期气候污染物，如甲烷和气溶胶，纳入评估框架。用于计算“二氧化碳当量”的传统方法并不能准确地反映甲烷对气候的强大而短暂的影响。我建议使用“二氧化碳-变暖当量”（CO2-we）来评估甲烷的短期影响，以及较弱的长期影响。这意味着2030年、2050年和2100年的温度影响都可以在一个短期和长期污染物的框架内准确评估。“二氧化碳变暖等效”方法旨在确定随着时间的推移，与原始甲烷排放产生相同变暖的二氧化碳排放量。我将用二氧化碳-我们来定义“强制预算”的概念，类似于英国政府用来限制二氧化碳排放的“碳预算”。（“强迫”是指扰乱气候系统能量平衡的任何事物。）该方案的关键要素是：-减缓气候变化的指标：我将进一步发展我在二氧化碳方面的工作，将所有温室气体通量、气溶胶和反照率变化纳入预算框架。所使用的度量标准将得到更新和发展，以确保它们能够再现对所有强迫的复杂气候模式的最新理解。-气候政策：二氧化碳-我们将作为一种工具，探讨气候政策中的几个概念，包括基于温度的所有温室气体排放公平份额分析和各国在《巴黎协定》下的国家目标。定性方法将用于调查组织层面净零（或同等）气候目标的定义和意图。-农业部门减缓气候变化：我将与利益攸关方合作，制定一个评估农业部门减缓备选方案的新模式。这将基于之前在克兰菲尔德开展的工作，结合上述指标，以及农民对农场可行性的实际知识。这项研究将反映农业对温度的影响，这是目前大多数方法无法评估的。该计划开发的工具将使决策者能够准确评估不同行动在不同时间尺度上对温度的影响，以帮助决策过程。除非决策者使用气候模型来模拟缓解行动，否则他们目前无法获得这一分析。我的工具将比目前简单的气候模型运行起来更快更简单，因此即使没有计算机技能，也可以进行分析。

项目成果

Towards net zero in agriculture: Future challenges and opportunities for arable, livestock and protected cropping systems in the UK

• DOI: 10.1177/00307270231178889
• 发表时间: 2023-06
• 期刊: Outlook on Agriculture
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: R. Sakrabani;K. Garnett;J. Knox;J. Rickson;M. Pawlett;N. Falagán;N. Girkin;M. Cain;M. C. Alamar;P. Burgess;J. Harris;K. Patchigolla;D. Sandars;A. Graves;Jack Hannam;Robert W Simmons

Are single global warming potential impact assessments adequate for carbon footprints of agri-food systems?

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ace204
• 发表时间: 2023-08-01
• 期刊: Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]