Glaciers and ice sheets in a warming world

格陵兰(和北极)未来海洋终止冰川消退的速度和规模对于估计未来海平面的贡献以及规划未来的航运路线和极地基础设施(如矿山、港口/港口、水电设施)来说是一个重要的未知因素。正如格陵兰总理穆特·埃格德(http://tiny.cc/EgedeSpeech)，)指出的那样，格陵兰将成为实现这一目标的关键地点，因为英国和全球政府正在寻找：(1)更好地限制未来海平面变化；(2)大西洋和太平洋之间快速、安全、政治稳定的航运路线；(3)替代形式的可再生能源(例如，通过水电提取氢气)；(4)以对环境和社会负责的方式获取来源的稀土矿物。这项更新建议将建立在研究金第一阶段在开发简单的计算方法评估冰川稳定性方面取得的进展，以及冰川学社区在生成近实时数据方面取得的进展的基础上。它将通过建造有史以来第一个“冰川数字双胞胎”(GDT)来实现这一目标。这将向公众开放，并使用近乎实时获得的数据来评估冰川变化的可能性及其对航运、基础设施和当地社区的潜在下游影响。此外，我们将在建立利物浦-亚洲冰川观测站(LAGO)的基础上，了解努克-格陵兰最大港口目前和未来面临的风险，以及通过西北航道的开放，努克可能是英国未来贸易的重要地点。具有讽刺意味的是，努克的主要锡库克港(在格陵兰语中的意思是“无冰”)在去年不得不关闭5次，因为来自纳萨普·塞米亚的冰层入侵增加。在这个项目中，我们将把来自LAGO的数据与卫星图像和冰川行为的计算机模拟相结合，以促进我们对这一冰川变化驱动因素的理解，并了解它对努克和锡库基港未来规划开发构成了多大的风险。将我们的工作成果传达给英国和国际利益相关者是该项目的关键组成部分，为了最大限度地有效地开展这项工作，我们与亚洲格陵兰调查公司(格陵兰政府的地球科学咨询公司)、兰博尔工程公司(负责确保格陵兰多个海洋基础设施项目对未来变化的弹性)、格陵兰商业协会(GBA；代表330家雇用&GT；的格陵兰企业)进行了合作。格陵兰劳动年龄人口的30%)；以及联合王国极地地区所有党派议会小组。利益相关者的参与将采取由GBA推动的会议和研讨会的形式，同时与Asiaq和Ramboll在他们在Nuuk的办公室合作。还将举行活动并为极地地区APPG制作简报，向英国议员和同行传达该项目的结果和见解，了解格陵兰冰川和冰山的变化如何影响英国的环境、贸易和安全。该项目将有助于促进我们对格陵兰MTGS对未来气候变化的短期(亚季节)和长期(数十年)反应的理解，从单个冰川的规模到整个冰盖。通过这样做，它将改进对未来海平面贡献的估计，并为北极内外的人民、行业和政府创造一个更安全、更有保障的环境。

The rate and scale of future marine terminating glacier retreat in Greenland's (and the Arctic) represents a significant unknown for estimating future sea level contributions, and the planning of future shipping routes and polar infrastructure (e.g. mines, ports/harbours, hydropower installations). As noted by Greenlandic PM Mute Egede (http://tiny.cc/EgedeSpeech), Greenland is set to be a key location for this as the UK and governments globally look for: (1) better constraint on future sea level change; (2) fast, safe, politically stable shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific; (3) alternative forms of renewable energy (e.g. hydrogen extracted through hydropower); (4) and obtaining rare earth minerals sourced in an environmentally and socially responsible manner.This Renewal proposal will build on progress made in the first stage of the fellowship on the development of computationally simple approaches to assessing glacier stability, and advances made by the glaciological community in the generation of near real-time data. It will achieve this by building the first ever "Glaciological Digital Twin" (GDT). This will be openly accessible, and use data obtained in near-real time to assess the likelihood of glacier change and the potential downstream impacts of this on shipping, infrastructure and local communities. In addition to this, we will build on the establishment of the Liverpool-Asiaq Glacier Observatory (LAGO) to understand present and future risks to Nuuk - Greenland's largest port, and a potentially vital location for future UK trade through the opening of the Northwest Passage. Nuuk's major Sikuk Harbour (meaning "ice free" in Greenlandic) has ironically had to close 5 times in the last year due to increased incursions of ice that originated from Narsap Sermia. In this project we will combine data from LAGO with satellite imagery and computer simulations of glacier behaviour to advance our understanding of what is driving changes at this glacier and understand how much of a risk it poses to Nuuk and the future planned development of Sikuki Harbour.Communicating the results of our work to UK and international stakeholders forms a key component of this project, and to maximise meaningful uptake of this work we have partnered with Asiaq Greenland Survey (the Greenland Government's geoscience consultancy); Ramboll Engineering (responsible for ensuring the resilience of multiple marine infrastructure projects in Greenland to future change); the Greenland Business Association (GBA; representing 330 Greenlandic businesses who employ >30% of the Greenlandic working age population); and the UK All Party Parliamentary Group for Polar Regions. Stakeholder engagement will take the form of meetings and workshops facilitated by the GBA while working alongside Asiaq and Ramboll at their offices in Nuuk. Events will also be held and briefing notes produced for the APPG for Polar Regions, to communicate findings and insight from the project to UK MPs and Peers regarding how glacier and iceberg change in Greenland can and will impact the environment, trade and security of the UK.Taken together, this project will help to advance our understanding of the short (sub-seasonal) and long term (multi-decadal) responses of Greenland's MTGs to future climate change from the scale of individual glaciers to the entire ice sheet. In doing so, it will deliver improved estimates of future sea level contribution, and contribute to a safer and more secure environment for its people, industry and governments within and beyond the Arctic.