Glaciers and ice sheets in a warming world

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The rate and scale of future marine terminating glacier retreat in Greenland's (and the Arctic) represents a significant unknown for estimating future sea level contributions, and the planning of future shipping routes and polar infrastructure (e.g. mines, ports/harbours, hydropower installations). As noted by Greenlandic PM Mute Egede (http://tiny.cc/EgedeSpeech), Greenland is set to be a key location for this as the UK and governments globally look for: (1) better constraint on future sea level change; (2) fast, safe, politically stable shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific; (3) alternative forms of renewable energy (e.g. hydrogen extracted through hydropower); (4) and obtaining rare earth minerals sourced in an environmentally and socially responsible manner.This Renewal proposal will build on progress made in the first stage of the fellowship on the development of computationally simple approaches to assessing glacier stability, and advances made by the glaciological community in the generation of near real-time data. It will achieve this by building the first ever "Glaciological Digital Twin" (GDT). This will be openly accessible, and use data obtained in near-real time to assess the likelihood of glacier change and the potential downstream impacts of this on shipping, infrastructure and local communities. In addition to this, we will build on the establishment of the Liverpool-Asiaq Glacier Observatory (LAGO) to understand present and future risks to Nuuk - Greenland's largest port, and a potentially vital location for future UK trade through the opening of the Northwest Passage. Nuuk's major Sikuk Harbour (meaning "ice free" in Greenlandic) has ironically had to close 5 times in the last year due to increased incursions of ice that originated from Narsap Sermia. In this project we will combine data from LAGO with satellite imagery and computer simulations of glacier behaviour to advance our understanding of what is driving changes at this glacier and understand how much of a risk it poses to Nuuk and the future planned development of Sikuki Harbour.Communicating the results of our work to UK and international stakeholders forms a key component of this project, and to maximise meaningful uptake of this work we have partnered with Asiaq Greenland Survey (the Greenland Government's geoscience consultancy); Ramboll Engineering (responsible for ensuring the resilience of multiple marine infrastructure projects in Greenland to future change); the Greenland Business Association (GBA; representing 330 Greenlandic businesses who employ >30% of the Greenlandic working age population); and the UK All Party Parliamentary Group for Polar Regions. Stakeholder engagement will take the form of meetings and workshops facilitated by the GBA while working alongside Asiaq and Ramboll at their offices in Nuuk. Events will also be held and briefing notes produced for the APPG for Polar Regions, to communicate findings and insight from the project to UK MPs and Peers regarding how glacier and iceberg change in Greenland can and will impact the environment, trade and security of the UK.Taken together, this project will help to advance our understanding of the short (sub-seasonal) and long term (multi-decadal) responses of Greenland's MTGs to future climate change from the scale of individual glaciers to the entire ice sheet. In doing so, it will deliver improved estimates of future sea level contribution, and contribute to a safer and more secure environment for its people, industry and governments within and beyond the Arctic.