Glaciers and ice sheets in a warming world

变暖世界中的冰川和冰原

• 批准号: MR/X02346X/1
• 负责人: James Lea
• 金额: $ 75.76万
• 依托单位: University of Liverpool
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2023
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2023 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=MR%2FX02346X%2F1
• 关键词: Glaciers; ice; sheets; warming; world

The rate and scale of future marine terminating glacier retreat in Greenland's (and the Arctic) represents a significant unknown for estimating future sea level contributions, and the planning of future shipping routes and polar infrastructure (e.g. mines, ports/harbours, hydropower installations). As noted by Greenlandic PM Mute Egede (http://tiny.cc/EgedeSpeech), Greenland is set to be a key location for this as the UK and governments globally look for: (1) better constraint on future sea level change; (2) fast, safe, politically stable shipping routes between the Atlantic and Pacific; (3) alternative forms of renewable energy (e.g. hydrogen extracted through hydropower); (4) and obtaining rare earth minerals sourced in an environmentally and socially responsible manner.This Renewal proposal will build on progress made in the first stage of the fellowship on the development of computationally simple approaches to assessing glacier stability, and advances made by the glaciological community in the generation of near real-time data. It will achieve this by building the first ever "Glaciological Digital Twin" (GDT). This will be openly accessible, and use data obtained in near-real time to assess the likelihood of glacier change and the potential downstream impacts of this on shipping, infrastructure and local communities. In addition to this, we will build on the establishment of the Liverpool-Asiaq Glacier Observatory (LAGO) to understand present and future risks to Nuuk - Greenland's largest port, and a potentially vital location for future UK trade through the opening of the Northwest Passage. Nuuk's major Sikuk Harbour (meaning "ice free" in Greenlandic) has ironically had to close 5 times in the last year due to increased incursions of ice that originated from Narsap Sermia. In this project we will combine data from LAGO with satellite imagery and computer simulations of glacier behaviour to advance our understanding of what is driving changes at this glacier and understand how much of a risk it poses to Nuuk and the future planned development of Sikuki Harbour.Communicating the results of our work to UK and international stakeholders forms a key component of this project, and to maximise meaningful uptake of this work we have partnered with Asiaq Greenland Survey (the Greenland Government's geoscience consultancy); Ramboll Engineering (responsible for ensuring the resilience of multiple marine infrastructure projects in Greenland to future change); the Greenland Business Association (GBA; representing 330 Greenlandic businesses who employ >30% of the Greenlandic working age population); and the UK All Party Parliamentary Group for Polar Regions. Stakeholder engagement will take the form of meetings and workshops facilitated by the GBA while working alongside Asiaq and Ramboll at their offices in Nuuk. Events will also be held and briefing notes produced for the APPG for Polar Regions, to communicate findings and insight from the project to UK MPs and Peers regarding how glacier and iceberg change in Greenland can and will impact the environment, trade and security of the UK.Taken together, this project will help to advance our understanding of the short (sub-seasonal) and long term (multi-decadal) responses of Greenland's MTGs to future climate change from the scale of individual glaciers to the entire ice sheet. In doing so, it will deliver improved estimates of future sea level contribution, and contribute to a safer and more secure environment for its people, industry and governments within and beyond the Arctic.

格陵兰岛（和北极）未来海洋终止冰川退缩的速度和规模对于估计未来海平面贡献、规划未来航运路线和极地基础设施（如矿山、港口/港口、水电设施）来说是一个重大的未知数。正如格陵兰总理穆特·埃格德（http://tiny）所指出的。cc/EgedeSpeech)，格陵兰岛将成为一个关键的地点，因为英国和全球各国政府都在寻找：(1)更好地约束未来的海平面变化；(2)大西洋和太平洋之间快速、安全、政治稳定的航线；(3)替代形式的可再生能源（如通过水力发电提取氢气）；(4)以对环境和社会负责的方式获取稀土矿物。这一更新提案将建立在奖学金第一阶段所取得的进展的基础上，即发展计算简单的方法来评估冰川稳定性，以及冰河学界在生成近实时数据方面取得的进展。它将通过建立有史以来第一个“冰川学数字孪生体”（GDT）来实现这一目标。这将是公开的，并使用近实时获得的数据来评估冰川变化的可能性及其对航运、基础设施和当地社区的潜在下游影响。除此之外，我们还将建立利物浦-亚洲冰川观测站（LAGO），以了解努克（格陵兰岛最大的港口）现在和未来的风险，努克是通过西北通道开放的未来英国贸易的潜在重要地点。具有讽刺意味的是，努克的主要锡库克港（在格陵兰语中是“无冰”的意思）去年不得不关闭5次，原因是来自纳尔萨普塞尔米亚的冰越来越多。在这个项目中，我们将把LAGO的数据与卫星图像和冰川行为的计算机模拟结合起来，以提高我们对冰川变化的理解，并了解它对努克和未来规划的Sikuki港的发展构成多大的风险。将我们的工作成果传达给英国和国际利益相关者是这个项目的关键组成部分，为了最大限度地利用这项工作，我们与亚洲格陵兰调查（格陵兰政府的地球科学咨询公司）建立了合作关系；Ramboll工程（负责确保格陵兰岛多个海洋基础设施项目对未来变化的适应能力）；格陵兰商业协会（GBA；代表330家格陵兰企业，这些企业雇用了格陵兰30%的工作年龄人口）；以及英国极地地区全党议会小组。在与Asiaq和Ramboll在努克的办公室合作期间，利益相关者将以会议和研讨会的形式参与。还将举办活动，并为极地地区APPG制作简报，向英国国会议员和同行传达项目的发现和见解，了解格陵兰冰川和冰山的变化如何影响英国的环境，贸易和安全。总的来说，这个项目将有助于提高我们对格陵兰冰川对未来气候变化的短期（亚季节）和长期（多年代际）响应的理解，从单个冰川到整个冰盖的尺度。在此过程中，它将提供对未来海平面贡献的改进估计，并为北极内外的人民、工业和政府提供更安全、更可靠的环境。