Statistics, environmental management, policy and regulation: developing the evidence base

描述自然环境的变化是必不可少的，但除此之外，监管机构和政策制定者面临的挑战在于理解政策、欧盟指令和监管与实际环境影响之间的联系。2001年，欧洲环境署报告了“我们对环境政策措施及其对环境的实际影响之间的联系了解多少或了解多少”，并指出“收集的许多信息在评估环境措施的影响方面用处有限”（Nigel Haigh, environmental Issues, Report 25/EC）。量化变化是“复杂的，需要多学科的努力，包括对已观察到的环境质量变化的评估”，无论是政策和法规的结果，还是通过与气候相关的变化。当今一些最引人注目的环境科学问题是围绕长期（和短期）观测记录的分析展开的，这些记录是在一个地点网络上测量的，识别模式需要统计建模，以解释自然系统的变化、不完整的观测和不确定性。此外，政策制定者和监管机构被要求考虑在气候变化情景下的规划和监管（例如洪水事件的频率，对水质的影响），因此风险评估成为监管的关键驱动因素，根据所涉及的风险和要实现的成果规模来分配资源。环境机构和其他非政府组织定期发布“环境状况报告”，根据其性质，可以调查环境随时间的变化。关于这些问题的科学和公众辩论需要提供现有数据以及从统计模型中得出的适当解释，这些模型明确说明了变化和不确定性。包括气候变化在内的许多因素相互作用，产生了一个复杂的环境信号，使得政策的效果和趋势的幅度难以区分。这项建议将环境监管机构、管理人员、公务员和科学家聚集在一起，发展必要的技能，以确保我们的环境得到尽可能最好的管理，造福子孙后代。

Describing changes in the natural environment is essential, but in addition the challenge facing regulators and policy makers lies in understanding the links between policy, EU directives and regulation and the actual environmental effects . In 2001, the European Environment Agency reported on 'how much or how little we know about the links between environmental policy measures and their actual impact in the environment' and observed that 'much of the information gathered is of limited use in assessing the impact of environmental measures' (Nigel Haigh, foreword of Environmental Issues, Report 25/EC). Quantifying change, whether as a result of policy and regulation or through climate related change is 'complex and requires multi-disciplinary efforts, including assessment of changes in environmental quality that have been observed'. Some of the most high-profile environmental science issues of today are framed around the analysis of long (and short) observational records, measured over a network of locations and recognising patterns requires statistical modelling, to account for variation in the natural system, incomplete observations and uncertainty. Additionally, policy makers and regulators are being asked to consider planning and regulation under the scenario of climate change (eg frequency of flood events, effect on water quality) thus risk assessment becomes a key driver of regulation, with resources directed according to the risks involved and the scale of outcomes to be achieved. Environment agencies and other NGO's regularly publish 'State of the environment reports' which by their nature allow investigation of change in the environment over time. Scientific and public debates on these issues need to be informed by presentation of existing data along with suitable interpretations drawn from statistical modelling explicitly accounting for variation and uncertainty. Many factors, including climate change, interact to produce a complex environmental signal making the effect of the policy and the magnitude of trend difficult to disentangle. The proposal brings together environmental regulators, managers, civil servants and scientists to develop the skills necessary to ensure that our environment receives the best possible management for future generations.