COntrails Spreading Into Cirrus (COSIC)

扩散到卷云中的轨迹 (COSIC)

• 批准号: NE/G005117/1
• 负责人: Keith Shine
• 金额: $ 2.48万
• 依托单位: University of Reading
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG005117%2F1
• 关键词: COntrails; Spreading; Into; Cirrus; COSIC

BACKGROUND In the last fifty years aviation has experienced very rapid development, with air traffic recording an almost 9% yearly growth rate in the first half of the period (approximately 2.5 times the average GDP growth rate) and approximately 5% yearly growth rate in the second half of the period. According to the most recent estimates, aviation climatic impact amounts to 2-8% of the global radiative forcing associated with climate change. As a result of the expected increase in air traffic in the next decades, the relative importance of air traffic on climate change is expected to increase significantly. THE NEED FOR COSIC AND AIMS One of aviation's largest effects is likely to be that due to contrails and their spreading into cirrus. This could be considerably larger than the effects of increased CO2 emissions but this contrail-cirrus remains unquantified. Previous estimates of combined aviation induced cloudiness suggest that spreading contrails could be important. However, these studies rely on correlating air traffic with cirrus coverage and have large uncertainties and methodological problems. The ultimate aim of this proposal is, for the first time, to build a physically based parameterisation of contrail-cirrus - to determine its role in climate change, testing whether it has a larger role than line-shaped contrails. To achieve this ultimate goal, observations of contrail properties and their spreading will be made with FAAM (research aircraft) flights and satellite observations. Then a hierarchy of models will be used to develop a contrail-cirrus cloud parameterisation within the Met Office Unified Model, working closely with both the Met Office and the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) partners, and constraining the developed parameterisations by the observations made by University of Manchester and Met Office researchers during the aircraft campaign. WORKPLAN WP1 will perform an aircraft campaign making 6 'case study' observations of spreading contrail during 2009 in an area out of the flight corridor to the southwest of the UK . We will use a novel 'figure of eight' flight pattern to make and monitor our own contrail and, in particular, track its evolution into cirrus. We will measure its radiative forcing by flying cross sections above and below and by monitoring from space using the GERB and SEVIRI geostationary instruments. We will make use of state-of-the-art observations made by the Met Office and University of Manchester groups. We will also rely on ice supersaturation forecasts supplied by the University of Reading group using European Centre forecasts. WP2 will use idealised modelling data supplied by DLR and the detailed observations made during WP1 to simulate specific case studies observed during the aircraft campaign. Particular attention will be made to the later stages of contrail lifecycle. WP3 will again make use of idealised DLR data and our own (and others) case-study data to build a prognostic contrail-cirrus scheme for the Met Office Unified Model. WP4 will employ the Unified Model with this parameterisation to predict the radiative forcing and climate impact from contrail-cirrus, comparing its climate impact to that estimated for line-shaped contrails.

背景在过去的五十年中，航空业经历了非常快速的发展，空中交通量在这段时间的前半段记录了几乎9%的年增长率（大约是平均GDP增长率的2.5倍），在这段时间的后半段记录了大约5%的年增长率。根据最近的估计，航空对气候的影响占与气候变化相关的全球辐射强迫的2-8%。由于未来几十年空中交通量预计将增加，空中交通对气候变化的相对重要性预计将大大增加。对COSIC和AIMS的需要航空业最大的影响之一可能是由于尾迹及其向卷云的扩散。这可能比二氧化碳排放量增加的影响大得多，但这种尾迹卷云仍然没有量化。以前对航空引起的云量的估计表明，蔓延的尾迹可能是重要的。然而，这些研究依赖于将空中交通与卷云覆盖范围相关联，并且具有很大的不确定性和方法问题。这项提案的最终目的是，首次建立一个基于物理的参数化的尾迹-卷云-以确定其在气候变化中的作用，测试它是否有一个更大的作用比线形的尾迹。为了实现这一最终目标，将利用FAAM（研究飞机）飞行和卫星观测对轨迹特性及其扩散进行观测。然后，将使用一系列模型在气象局统一模型中开发一个凝结云-卷云参数化，与气象局和德国航空航天中心（DLR）合作伙伴密切合作，并通过曼彻斯特大学和气象局研究人员在飞机活动期间进行的观测来约束所开发的参数化。工作组WP 1将在2009年期间在英国西南部飞行走廊外的一个地区进行一次飞机运动，对扩展轨迹进行6次“案例研究”观测。我们将使用一种新颖的“8字形”飞行模式来制作和监测我们自己的轨迹，特别是跟踪它演变成卷云。我们将通过上下飞行横截面以及使用GERB和SEVIRI地球静止仪器从空间进行监测来测量其辐射强迫。我们将利用英国气象局和曼彻斯特大学小组的最新观测结果。我们还将依靠阅读大学小组利用欧洲中心的预测提供的冰过饱和度预测。WP 2将使用DLR提供的理想化建模数据和WP 1期间进行的详细观察，以模拟飞机活动期间观察到的特定案例研究。将特别注意轨迹生命周期的后期阶段。WP 3将再次利用理想化的DLR数据和我们自己（和其他人）的案例研究数据，为英国气象局统一模型建立一个预测性的尾迹卷云方案。WP 4将采用统一模式和这种参数化来预测凝结云的辐射强迫和气候影响，将其气候影响与线形凝结云的估计进行比较。

项目成果

A methodology for in-situ and remote sensing of microphysical and radiative properties of contrails as they evolve into cirrus

一种对凝结尾迹演化为卷云时的微物理和辐射特性进行原位和遥感的方法

• DOI: 10.5194/acp-12-8157-2012
• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• 影响因子: 6.3
• 作者: J. Haywood;F. Marenco;D. O’Sullivan;J. Meyer;R. Thorpe;M. W. Gallagher;M. Krämer;K. N. Bower;G. Rädel;A. Rap;A. Woolley;P. Forster;H. Coe
• 通讯作者: H. Coe