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RAPID-RAPIT

快速

基本信息

批准号：
NE/G015317/1
负责人：
Christian Franzke
金额：
$ 2.69万
依托单位：
British Antarctic Survey
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2009
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2009 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG015317%2F1
关键词：
RAPID RAPIT

项目摘要

North west Europe has a relatively mild climate in part because of heat pulled north through the Atlantic by the overturning. There is a risk that global warming will cause this circulation to rapidly decrease with consequences involving not only colder winters for Europe but also changes in sea level and precipitation. This project will carry out a risk assessment of rapid changes of the Atlantic overturning. We will use two models of the climate system, HADCM3, the Hadley Centre model used in the IPCC AR4, and CHIME, a global climate model developed at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. This has the same atmospheric model as HADCM3 but has a very different structure to the ocean component. Making use of the resources of climateprediction.net we will run a large ensemble of both models to assess the uncertainties in the system. We will then use modern Bayesian statistical techniques to combine model output, data and expert opinion in our risk assessment. An assessment of the utility of the data from the RAPID-WATCH arrays is an important aim of the project.

西北欧的气候相对温和，部分原因是由于翻转将热量通过大西洋向北输送。全球变暖有可能导致这种环流迅速减少，其后果不仅包括欧洲冬季变冷，还包括海平面和降水的变化。该项目将对大西洋倾覆的快速变化进行风险评估。我们将使用气候系统的两个模型：HADCM3（IPCC AR4 中使用的哈德利中心模型）和 CHIME（南安普顿国家海洋学中心开发的全球气候模型）。它具有与 HADCM3 相同的大气模型，但与海洋成分的结构非常不同。利用 Climateprediction.net 的资源，我们将运行两个模型的大型集合来评估系统中的不确定性。然后，我们将使用现代贝叶斯统计技术将模型输出、数据和专家意见结合起来进行风险评估。评估 RAPID-WATCH 阵列数据的效用是该项目的一个重要目标。