RAPID-RAPIT

欧洲西北部的气候相对温和，部分原因是翻转带来的热量通过大西洋向北移动。全球变暖有可能导致这种环流迅速减少，其后果不仅包括欧洲冬季变冷，还包括海平面和降水量的变化。该项目将对大西洋翻转的快速变化进行风险评估。我们将使用两个气候系统模型，HadCM3，IPCC AR4中使用的Hadley中心模型，以及CHME，一个由南安普敦国家海洋学中心开发的全球气候模型。它与HadCM3具有相同的大气模型，但与海洋部分具有非常不同的结构。利用气候预测网的资源，我们将运行这两个模型的大型集成来评估系统中的不确定性。然后，我们将使用现代贝叶斯统计技术，在我们的风险评估中结合模型输出、数据和专家意见。利用来自快速观察阵列的数据是该项目的一个重要目标。

North west Europe has a relatively mild climate in part because of heat pulled north through the Atlantic by the overturning. There is a risk that global warming will cause this circulation to rapidly decrease with consequences involving not only colder winters for Europe but also changes in sea level and precipitation. This project will carry out a risk assessment of rapid changes of the Atlantic overturning. We will use two models of the climate system, HADCM3, the Hadley Centre model used in the IPCC AR4, and CHIME, a global climate model developed at the National Oceanography Centre, Southampton. This has the same atmospheric model as HADCM3 but has a very different structure to the ocean component. Making use of the resources of climateprediction.net we will run a large ensemble of both models to assess the uncertainties in the system. We will then use modern Bayesian statistical techniques to combine model output, data and expert opinion in our risk assessment. The utility of the data from the RAPID-WATCH arrays is an important aim of the project.