DEPICT-SNOW: Decoding and predicting the change in future extreme snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere

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Extreme snowfall is a major disastrous climate event that has enormous economic and human impacts; however, according to the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there is low confidence in both past and future changes in heavy snowfall. This is due to highly uncertain atmospheric circulation response to climate change, model biases, poor snowfall observations and limited model ensembles. The overarching aim of DEPICTSnow is to pinpoint the controlling mechanisms for, and to produce innovative and timely predictions/projections of future extreme snowfall change in the Northern Hemisphere for the coming decades. DEPICTSnow will use an advanced weather forecast model, large-ensemble/high-resolution modelling strategy and advanced analytical methods to make significant advances in future extreme snowfall change and predictions/projections. These unprecedented large-ensemble, high-resolution weather forecast model simulations are enabled by the University of Oxford's e- Research Centre's unique and innovative distributed computing project (Climateprediction.net) and the extensive application of this computing project in extreme events attribution. These backbone seasonal simulations will be analyzed with advanced analytic methods such as decomposition of thermodynamics and dynamics and considering key atmospheric circulation patterns to make breakthroughs in controlling mechanisms for future extreme snowfall change. Innovative and timely predictions/projections of future extreme snowfall will be produced using both risk-based and storyline-based approaches, which complements each other. These can be of immediate importance to the scientific communities and wider public sectors. In short, DEPICTSnow will fill a significant knowledge gap in the controlling mechanisms of future extreme snowfall change, inform societies of quantitative risks associated with future extreme snowfall change and guide critical mitigation strategies.