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Climate change and habitat fragmentation in coral reef ecosystems

气候变化和珊瑚礁生态系统的栖息地破碎化

基本信息

批准号：
NE/G017344/1
负责人：
Peter J Mumby
金额：
$ 50.26万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2010 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG017344%2F1
关键词：
Climate change habitat fragmentation coral

项目摘要

One of the most striking impacts of human development is the replacement of natural wildlife habitat with either agriculture or urban environments. Not only does such development reduce the overall availability of wildlife habitat, it often fragments the landscape so that habitat patches become smaller and increasingly isolated. This so called 'habitat fragmentation' causes many problems for wildlife including reducing biodiversity and the value of ecosystem services. Not surprisingly, habitat fragmentation has become one of the most intensively-studied phenomena in terrestrial ecology, underpinning the fields of landscape ecology and population biology. Despite the existence of major disturbance phenomena in marine ecosystems, the effects of habitat fragmentation in marine systems have barely been considered. There are several reasons for this including difficulties in mapping habitats underwater, limited availability of ecosystem models, and difficulty in establishing the connectivities among populations through larval dispersal. Although the lack of study of habitat fragmentation in marine ecosystems is understandable, the potential importance of this process sits high on the conservation agenda, primarily because of the impacts of climate change. In 1998, for example, unusually high sea temperatures in tropical regions led to unprecedented mortality of reef corals with many reefs losing 99% of their living coral and an estimated 25% of the world's reefs losing their coral dominance within a few months. With the recent emergence of models of ecosystem dynamics and larval connectivity among coral reefs, the constraints to studying fragmentation in marine systems have recently been lifted. The research team is multi-disciplinary and provides the four key ingredients needed to study climate change impacts on marine habitats. These are (1) mapping of the existing distribution of reef habitat with satellite imagery (PI, Peter Mumby an ecologist), (2) modelling the ecological dynamics within patches of reef (Mumby), (3) spatially-realistic model of the dispersal of larvae among patches of reef (Project Partner, Claire Paris a biological oceanographer), and (4) access to and use of global climate models (Co-I, Peter Cox, Met Office Professor of Climate Dynamics at the University of Exeter). The model will be used to ask fundamentally-important questions about climate change and opportunities for human mitigation and adaption. First we recognize that the Earth is already locked into a degree of warming even if urgent action was taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We examine the consequences of these inevitable impacts on reefs, even if we were to take appropriate local conservation (i.e., providing a 'best-case' scenario of expected change). We then evaluate the impact of international action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by simulating how each emission scenario effects reefs through the processes of rising hurricane intensity, coral bleaching, and ocean acidification. Of course, most conservation action is taken at local scales so we also quantify the extent to which taking appropriate local action, such as preventing overexploitation of herbivorous fishes, influences the future trajectories of reef habitat loss and fragmentation. For example, to what extent does local action buy time for reefs to adapt? The net impacts of ocean acidification are poorly understood so we will carry out a preliminary sensitivity analysis of reefs to at least one putative impact of acidification (reduced coral growth rate). Lastly, we undertake field studies to test the predictions of the model by simulating the actual disturbance histories of reefs since 1950 and comparing the predicted patterns of reef health to those found in the field. If the grant is funded by NERC, the University of Exeter has committed to fund an inter-disciplinary PhD studentship to extend the analyses over a continuous range of emission scenarios

人类发展最显著的影响之一是野生动物的自然栖息地被农业或城市环境所取代。这种开发不仅减少了野生动物栖息地的总体可用性，而且往往使景观破碎，使栖息地斑块变得更小，越来越孤立。这种所谓的“栖息地破碎化”给野生动物带来了许多问题，包括减少生物多样性和生态系统服务的价值。毫不奇怪，栖息地破碎化已成为陆地生态学中研究最深入的现象之一，成为景观生态学和种群生物学领域的基础。尽管海洋生态系统中存在重大干扰现象，但海洋系统中生境破碎化的影响几乎没有得到考虑。这有几个原因，包括难以绘制水下栖息地，生态系统模型的可用性有限，以及难以通过幼虫传播建立种群之间的联系。虽然缺乏对海洋生态系统生境破碎化的研究是可以理解的，但这一过程的潜在重要性在保护议程上占有重要地位，主要是因为气候变化的影响。例如，1998年，热带地区异常高的海水温度导致珊瑚礁前所未有的死亡率，许多珊瑚礁失去了99%的活珊瑚，估计世界上25%的珊瑚礁在几个月内失去了珊瑚优势。随着最近出现的生态系统动态模型和珊瑚礁之间的幼虫连接，研究海洋系统的破碎化的限制最近已经解除。该研究团队是多学科的，提供了研究气候变化对海洋栖息地影响所需的四个关键要素。这是（1）利用卫星图像绘制珊瑚礁栖息地的现有分布图（PI，生态学家Peter Mumby），（2）模拟珊瑚礁斑块内的生态动态（Mumby），（3）珊瑚礁斑块间幼虫扩散的空间现实模型（项目合作伙伴，Claire巴黎，生物海洋学家），以及（4）获取和使用全球气候模型（Co-I，Peter考克斯，埃克塞特大学气象局气候动力学教授）。该模型将被用于提出有关气候变化以及人类缓解和适应气候变化的机会的基本重要问题。首先，我们认识到，即使采取紧急行动减少温室气体排放，地球也已经陷入一定程度的变暖。我们研究这些不可避免的影响对珊瑚礁的后果，即使我们采取适当的当地保护（即，提供预期变化的“最佳情况”方案）。然后，我们通过模拟每种排放情景如何通过飓风强度上升、珊瑚漂白和海洋酸化等过程影响珊瑚礁，评估国际行动对减少温室气体排放的影响。当然，大多数保护行动都是在当地范围内采取的，因此我们还量化了采取适当的当地行动（如防止过度开发食草鱼类）对珊瑚礁栖息地丧失和破碎化未来轨迹的影响程度。例如，当地的行动在多大程度上为珊瑚礁赢得了适应的时间？人们对海洋酸化的净影响知之甚少，因此我们将对珊瑚礁对酸化的至少一种假定影响（珊瑚生长率降低）进行初步敏感性分析。最后，我们进行实地研究，通过模拟自1950年以来的珊瑚礁的实际干扰历史，并比较预测的珊瑚礁健康的模式，在现场发现的模型的预测。如果赠款由NERC资助，埃克塞特大学承诺资助一个跨学科的博士生项目，以将分析扩展到连续的排放情景范围

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change.

在全球环境变化下运行对自适应珊瑚礁管理的弹性。

DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12700
发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
Global change biology
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Anthony KR;Marshall PA;Abdulla A;Beeden R;Bergh C;Black R;Eakin CM;Game ET;Gooch M;Graham NA;Green A;Heron SF;van Hooidonk R;Knowland C;Mangubhai S;Marshall N;Maynard JA;McGinnity P;McLeod E;Mumby PJ;Nyström M;Obura D;Oliver J;Possingham HP;Pressey RL;Rowlands GP;Tamelander J;Wachenfeld D;Wear S
通讯作者：
Wear S

Interaction of herbivory and seasonality on the dynamics of Caribbean macroalgae