Global analysis of temperature regimes to stratify the management of coral reefs for climate change

对温度状况进行全球分析，以对气候变化的珊瑚礁管理进行分层

• 批准号: NE/G010188/1
• 负责人: Peter J Mumby
• 金额: $ 6.78万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF EXETER
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FG010188%2F1
• 关键词: Global; analysis; temperature; regimes; stratify

Hundreds of millions of people depend on coral reefs for their livelihood and source of food. Almost all of the ecosystem services provided by reefs are founded upon living corals which, through a mutualism with symbiotic algae, are able to deposit a coral skeleton. Unfortunately, this symbiosis is precarious and easily disturbed by thermal stress; rapid increases in sea temperature of only 1 degree can result in massive areas of coral dying off. Indeed, patterns of living coral cover in the Bahamas are strongly associated with the intensity of thermal stress in 1998 (Mumby unpublished data). With sea temperatures continuing to rise through global change, coral reefs are one of the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Coral reef managers are powerless to avert the rise of sea temperature within their jurisdiction. However, a pilot analysis of satellite-derived sea temperature data from the Bahamas shows that some reefs experience much greater stress than others during a bleaching event. Furthermore, some reefs are routinely cooler than others during non-bleaching years which implies that the acclimation of corals to temperature varies predictably across the seascape. The existence of large-scale patterns in both chronic thermal stress (during normal non-bleaching periods) and acute thermal stress (during bleaching events), provides novel opportunities for attempting to manage climate change at local scales. Areas of reef can be identified that are expected to experience lower levels of physical stress during bleaching events - probably because areas of high wave exposure mix the water column and help it cool. If managers then target their interventions, such as marine reserve designation (which reduces biological stress such as the overgrowth of coral by seaweed), to these areas then there is a relatively strong possibility that the effects of climate change will be minimised at such sites. In other words, managers can target their efforts on minimising biological stress so that some reefs experience minimal levels of stress overall. Although we have demonstrated the efficacy of our approach in a pilot analysis (one of the results of which is given in the proposal), this NERC grant allows us to complete our study by testing its applicability at global scales. Moreover, a global analysis will enable us to test a hypothesis concerning the processes driving patterns of sea temperature on reefs and generate new hypotheses to follow up. All of the datasets required are already available so we simply require staff time to process our global dataset and carry out some specific analyses. Our results will have widespread impact because they assess the scope for managing climate change on reefs throughout the World. Those regions that do not possess great geographic variation in thermal stress will not lend themselves to a stratification of management for coral bleaching, so this will be one less tool in the management arsenal for such places. However, where appropriate geographic variation does exist, outputs from this grant will enable managers to begin stratifying their activities immediately. This project is one of the first demonstrations of targeting local resource management to address the problem of global climate change. As such, we anticipate a broad impact upon the science of sustainable management and climate change.

数亿人依靠珊瑚礁维持生计和食物来源。珊瑚礁提供的几乎所有生态系统服务都建立在活珊瑚的基础上，活珊瑚通过与共生藻类的互利共生，能够沉积珊瑚骨架。不幸的是，这种共生关系是不稳定的，很容易受到热应力的干扰。海水温度仅快速升高 1 度就可能导致大面积珊瑚死亡。事实上，巴哈马群岛的活珊瑚覆盖模式与 1998 年的热应力强度密切相关（Mumby 未发表的数据）。随着全球变化导致海水温度持续上升，珊瑚礁成为地球上受威胁最严重的生态系统之一。珊瑚礁管理者无力阻止其管辖范围内海水温度的上升。然而，对巴哈马卫星海水温度数据的初步分析表明，在白化事件期间，一些珊瑚礁比其他珊瑚礁承受更大的压力。此外，在非白化年份，一些珊瑚礁通常比其他珊瑚礁凉爽，这意味着珊瑚对温度的适应在整个海景中是可预测的。慢性热应激（正常非白化期间）和急性热应激（白化事件期间）的大规模模式的存在，为尝试在局部范围内管理气候变化提供了新的机会。可以确定在白化事件期间预计会经历较低水平物理压力的珊瑚礁区域 - 可能是因为高波浪暴露的区域混合了水柱并帮助其冷却。如果管理人员随后针对这些地区采取干预措施，例如指定海洋保护区（这可以减少海藻导致的珊瑚过度生长等生物压力），那么气候变化对这些地区的影响就很有可能被最小化。换句话说，管理者可以将努力的目标放在最大限度地减少生物压力上，以便一些珊瑚礁总体上承受最小程度的压力。尽管我们已经在试点分析中证明了我们方法的有效性（其中一个结果在提案中给出），但 NERC 的资助使我们能够通过测试其在全球范围内的适用性来完成我们的研究。此外，全球分析将使我们能够检验有关驱动珊瑚礁海水温度模式的过程的假设，并产生新的假设来跟进。所有所需的数据集都已经可用，因此我们只需要员工时间来处理我们的全球数据集并进行一些特定的分析。我们的结果将产生广泛的影响，因为它们评估了管理全世界珊瑚礁气候变化的范围。那些热应力地理差异不大的地区不适合对珊瑚白化进行分层管理，因此这将成为这些地区的管理工具之一。然而，如果确实存在适当的地理差异，这笔赠款的产出将使管理人员能够立即开始对其活动进行分层。该项目是针对当地资源管理来解决全球气候变化问题的首批示范项目之一。因此，我们预计会对可持续管理和气候变化科学产生广泛影响。