Coastal ecosystems, governance and poverty: A case study of managing the Brahmaputra-Ganges mega-delta in a changing world

三角洲的生态系统服务往往支持高人口密度——据估计，全球人口超过5亿，南亚、东南亚和东亚是重要的例子。正如IPCC第四次评估报告所指出的那样，三角洲是最脆弱的沿海环境之一，其生态系统服务在未来几年和几十年内面临多重压力，包括：(1)三角洲内部发展（如城市化）造成的地方驱动因素，(2)流域管理变化（如大坝建设）造成的区域驱动因素，以及(3)全球气候变化，特别是海平面上升。了解如何维持生态系统服务，减少三角洲地区的贫困和脆弱性，需要考虑所有这些压力及其相互作用。该伙伴关系和项目发展基金（PPDG）旨在制定一个更大的提案，制定方法来理解和描述恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲变化的多重驱动因素，探索其对三角洲居民贫困和脆弱性的影响，并制定管理系统，以应对21世纪存在的巨大不确定性。恒河-布拉马普特拉河三角洲之所以被选中，是因为它是最脆弱的三角洲之一（包括孟加拉国和印度西孟加拉邦的大部分地区），但正在提出的方法将适用于亚洲、非洲和南美洲其他三角洲系统的管理。这个PPDG整合了多个调查尺度，通常在不同学科中独立探索。因此，自然科学、工程和社会科学观点的整合是至关重要的，这将是PPDG将在项目团队（如廷德尔气候变化研究中心）现有经验的基础上探索的关键一步。PPDG的目标是制定一项提案，将上述所有问题纳入基线和未来条件，并将贫困或与贫困相关的结果作为关键指标。该提案还将考虑关键的干预因素，如治理和政治意愿，以应对腐败以及气候变化和其他危害的社会和经济影响。贫困结果将被视为一种更广泛的福祉，而不仅仅是金钱指标，这在这种情况下可能不相关。我们将探讨这些情景对健康、教育、社会资本和安全以及资产贫困和营养水平的影响。为了了解沿海人口不同的潜在复原力和脆弱性水平的影响，将开展先前的研究。特别的兴趣将集中在社会资本和物质福利的可能阈值上，在此之后，上述多重压力将产生灾难性影响，包括大规模移民等连锁效应。将在各个层面进行分析，包括对个人、家庭、社区、更广泛地区以及最终对整个国家和三角洲地区的影响。PPDG将在三个国家（英国、孟加拉国和印度）建立研究联盟，并改进确定的研究问题，为2010年12月提交的报告制定一份提案。特别是，它将允许我们将研究嵌入恒河-雅鲁藏布江，以促进政策建议的采纳，如果完整的提案得到资助，将会出现。

The ecosystem services of deltas often support high population densities - estimated at over 500 million people globally, with important examples in south, south-east and East Asia. As noted in the IPCC AR4 Assessment, deltas are one of the most vulnerable coastal environments and their ecosystem services face multiple stresses in the coming years and decades including (1) local drivers due to development (e.g., urbanisation) within the delta, (2) regional drivers due to changes in catchment management (e.g. dam construction), and (3) global climate change, especially sea-level rise, Understanding how to sustain ecosystem services and reduce poverty and vulnerability in deltaic areas requires consideration of all these stresses and their interaction. This Partnership and Project Development Grant (PPDG) aims to develop a larger proposal that will develop methods to understand and characterise these multiple drivers of change for the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, explore their implications for poverty and vulnerability of the delta residents, and develop management systems that are resilient in the face of the large uncertainties that exist for the 21st Century. The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is selected as it is one of the most vulnerable deltas (embracing most of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India), but the methods that are being proposed will be transferable to the management of other delta systems in Asia, Africa and South America. This PPDG integrates across multiple scales of investigation that are often explored independently in different disciplines. Hence, integration of natural science, engineering and social science views is critical and this will be a key step which the PPDG will explore, building on existing experience in the project team such as within the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The PPDG aims to develop a proposal that integrates all the above issues for both the baseline and future conditions, using poverty or poverty-related outcomes as the key indicators. The proposal will also consider critical intervening factors such as governance and political will in tackling both corruption and the social and economic effects of climate change and other hazards. Poverty outcomes will be considered as a much wider spectrum of wellbeing than just money metrics, which may not be relevant in this setting. We will explore the effect of the scenarios on health, education, social capital and security as well as asset poverty and nutritional levels. Previous research will be developed in order to understand the effects of differing underlying resilience and vulnerability levels among the coastal populations. Particular interest will be focussed on possible thresholds of social capital and material wellbeing, after which the multiple stresses above would have catastrophic effects, including knock on effects such as mass migration. Analysis will occur at various levels - including effects on the individual, the household, the community, the wider area and ultimately the whole nation and delta. The PPDG will develop the research consortium across three countries (UK, Bangladesh and India) and refine the research questions identified to develop a proposal for the December 2010 submission. In particular, it will allow us to embed the research in the Ganges-Brahmaputra to facilitate take-up of the policy recommendations that would emerge if the full proposal was funded.