Coastal ecosystems, governance and poverty: A case study of managing the Brahmaputra-Ganges mega-delta in a changing world

沿海生态系统、治理和贫困：在不断变化的世界中管理雅鲁藏布江-恒河巨型三角洲的案例研究

• 批准号: NE/I003878/1
• 负责人: Robert Nicholls
• 金额: $ 5.24万
• 依托单位: University of Southampton
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2010 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI003878%2F1
• 关键词: Coastal; ecosystems; governance; poverty; case

The ecosystem services of deltas often support high population densities - estimated at over 500 million people globally, with important examples in south, south-east and East Asia. As noted in the IPCC AR4 Assessment, deltas are one of the most vulnerable coastal environments and their ecosystem services face multiple stresses in the coming years and decades including (1) local drivers due to development (e.g., urbanisation) within the delta, (2) regional drivers due to changes in catchment management (e.g. dam construction), and (3) global climate change, especially sea-level rise, Understanding how to sustain ecosystem services and reduce poverty and vulnerability in deltaic areas requires consideration of all these stresses and their interaction. This Partnership and Project Development Grant (PPDG) aims to develop a larger proposal that will develop methods to understand and characterise these multiple drivers of change for the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta, explore their implications for poverty and vulnerability of the delta residents, and develop management systems that are resilient in the face of the large uncertainties that exist for the 21st Century. The Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is selected as it is one of the most vulnerable deltas (embracing most of Bangladesh and West Bengal, India), but the methods that are being proposed will be transferable to the management of other delta systems in Asia, Africa and South America. This PPDG integrates across multiple scales of investigation that are often explored independently in different disciplines. Hence, integration of natural science, engineering and social science views is critical and this will be a key step which the PPDG will explore, building on existing experience in the project team such as within the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. The PPDG aims to develop a proposal that integrates all the above issues for both the baseline and future conditions, using poverty or poverty-related outcomes as the key indicators. The proposal will also consider critical intervening factors such as governance and political will in tackling both corruption and the social and economic effects of climate change and other hazards. Poverty outcomes will be considered as a much wider spectrum of wellbeing than just money metrics, which may not be relevant in this setting. We will explore the effect of the scenarios on health, education, social capital and security as well as asset poverty and nutritional levels. Previous research will be developed in order to understand the effects of differing underlying resilience and vulnerability levels among the coastal populations. Particular interest will be focussed on possible thresholds of social capital and material wellbeing, after which the multiple stresses above would have catastrophic effects, including knock on effects such as mass migration. Analysis will occur at various levels - including effects on the individual, the household, the community, the wider area and ultimately the whole nation and delta. The PPDG will develop the research consortium across three countries (UK, Bangladesh and India) and refine the research questions identified to develop a proposal for the December 2010 submission. In particular, it will allow us to embed the research in the Ganges-Brahmaputra to facilitate take-up of the policy recommendations that would emerge if the full proposal was funded.

三角洲的生态系统服务通常支持高人口密度-估计全球人口超过5亿，南亚、东南亚和东亚有重要的例子。正如气专委第四次评估报告所指出的，三角洲是最脆弱的沿海环境之一，其生态系统服务在未来几年和几十年面临多重压力，包括：（1）发展带来的当地驱动因素（例如，（1）三角洲内的生态系统变化（如城市化），（2）流域管理变化（如水坝建设）引起的区域驱动力，（3）全球气候变化，特别是海平面上升。要理解如何维持三角洲地区的生态系统服务并减少贫困和脆弱性，需要考虑所有这些压力及其相互作用。该合作伙伴关系和项目发展赠款（PPDG）旨在制定一个更大的提案，该提案将制定方法来理解和识别恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲这些变化的多重驱动因素，探索其对三角洲居民贫困和脆弱性的影响，并制定管理系统，以应对21世纪世纪的巨大不确定性。之所以选择恒河-雅鲁藏布江三角洲，是因为它是最脆弱的三角洲之一（包括孟加拉国和印度西孟加拉的大部分地区），但所提出的方法将可转用于亚洲、非洲和南美洲其他三角洲系统的管理。该PPDG集成了多个调查尺度，这些调查尺度通常在不同学科中独立探索。因此，自然科学、工程学和社会科学观点的整合至关重要，这将是PPDG将探索的关键一步，建立在项目团队的现有经验基础上，如廷德尔气候变化研究中心。该方案旨在制定一项提案，将上述所有问题纳入基线和未来条件，并将贫困或与贫困有关的结果作为关键指标。该提案还将考虑关键的干预因素，如治理和政治意愿，以应对腐败以及气候变化和其他危害的社会和经济影响。贫穷结果将被视为一个范围更广的福祉，而不仅仅是金钱指标，这在这种情况下可能不相关。我们将探讨这些情景对健康、教育、社会资本和安全以及资产贫困和营养水平的影响。将开展先前的研究，以了解沿海人口不同的基本复原力和脆弱性水平的影响。特别感兴趣的是社会资本和物质福利的可能阈值，在此之后，上述多重压力将产生灾难性的影响，包括连锁效应，如大规模移民。分析将在各个层面进行，包括对个人、家庭、社区、更广泛的地区以及最终对整个国家和三角洲的影响。PPDG将在三个国家（英国、孟加拉国和印度）建立研究联盟，并完善确定的研究问题，以制定2010年12月提交的提案。特别是，它将使我们能够将研究嵌入恒河-雅鲁藏布江，以促进采纳如果整个提案得到资助就会出现的政策建议。