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Topic A: Open CLimate IMpacts modelling framework (OpenCLIM)

主题 A：开放 CLimate IMpacts 建模框架 (OpenCLIM)

基本信息

批准号：
NE/T013931/1
负责人：
Robert Nicholls
金额：
$ 238.15万
依托单位：
University of East Anglia
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FT013931%2F1
关键词：
Topic Open CLimate IMpacts modelling

项目摘要

Climate change is one of the major threats of the 21st Century both nationally and globally. This requires a joint response of mitigation and adaptation as enshrined in the UK Climate Change Act, which mandates a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years and a quinquennial National Adaptation Plan (NAP) to adapt to the climate risks that are identified. Assessing climate risks and adaptation in a consistent manner is scientifically challenging as climate change is manifest in multiple ways (rising temperature and sea level, changing precipitation, etc.) and impacts every human and natural system. Further there are direct and indirect impacts as these effects cascade and interact with other sectors which are often changing due to non-climate processes. Any proposed adaptations need to be assessed in a similar manner including direct and indirect effects and unintended consequences. Earlier UK climate assessments did not fully address this challenge relying in part on expert synthesis for integration, potentially leading to an over focus on direct consequences and leading to inconsistencies between sectors and between adaptation options.The OpenCLIM project is designed to support UK assessment of climate risks and adaptation needs, and future CCRAs and NAPs in particular, by developing and applying a first UK integrated assessment for climate impacts and adaptation. First and foremost we aim to develop an open, innovative and flexible platform to provide an improved capacity for the next CCRA and NAP. Our model will consider UK-wide climate impacts and adaptation in biodiversity, agriculture, infrastructure and urban areas, considering the impacts of flooding, heat stress and changing temperature and precipitation. It will also consider two detailed case studies: (1) an urban analysis of Glasgow and environs (the Clyde); and (2) a more rural analysis of the Norfolk Broads and environs. These will serve as a demonstration and validation exercise to inform the national analysis. Secondly, we will also design an open-access platform with a strong legacy which is flexible to allow further development of the integrated model beyond this funding. We aspire to develop a community model where new and improved models could be easily incorporated and innovative science and new policy questions investigated. Hence future CCRAs and NAPs could be linked to a living science process, drawing on evolving understanding and stakeholder needs. This would include improving knowledge in established sectors and areas, and developing better sectoral linkages and interactions, as well as adding new models of less established sectors and areas as they emerge, including the ability to reframe and pose new questions. Recognising the significant challenge of achieving this second goal, our model will be developed within the UKCIRC DAFNI (Data & Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure) facility for High Performance Computing.The platform will be designed to take the UKCP18 and new UK socioeconomic scenarios to ensure the best scientific inputs. The approach will be explicitly spatial and allow highlighting of geographical hotspot areas and the prioritisation of risks in a systematic and consistent manner including tabulation and mapping of outputs. The models that are included are all physically-based (rather than emulators or rules-of-thumb) and this will enable the generation of new research insights, including climatic risks in the UK. Importantly, the use of physically-based models will allow credible simulation of conditions that have not been previously observed and improve confidence in the results compared to earlier analyses.

气候变化是 21 世纪国内外的主要威胁之一。这需要英国气候变化法案中规定的减缓和适应联合应对措施，该法案要求每五年进行一次气候变化风险评估（CCRA），并每五年制定一次国家适应计划（NAP），以适应所确定的气候风险。以一致的方式评估气候风险和适应在科学上具有挑战性，因为气候变化以多种方式表现出来（气温和海平面上升、降水变化等），并影响每个人类和自然系统。此外，还存在直接和间接影响，因为这些影响会级联并与其他部门相互作用，而这些部门经常因非气候过程而发生变化。任何拟议的适应措施都需要以类似的方式进行评估，包括直接和间接影响以及意外后果。早期的英国气候评估并未完全解决这一挑战，部分依赖于专家综合整合，这可能导致过度关注直接后果，并导致部门之间和适应方案之间的不一致。OpenCLIM项目旨在通过开发和应用英国第一个气候影响和适应综合评估来支持英国对气候风险和适应需求的评估，特别是未来的CCRA和NAP。首先也是最重要的，我们的目标是开发一个开放、创新和灵活的平台，为下一个 CCRA 和 NAP 提供改进的能力。我们的模型将考虑英国范围内的气候影响以及生物多样性、农业、基础设施和城市地区的适应，同时考虑洪水、热应激以及温度和降水变化的影响。它还将考虑两个详细的案例研究：（1）格拉斯哥及其周边地区（克莱德）的城市分析； (2) 对诺福克湖区及周边地区进行更加乡村化的分析。这些将作为示范和验证活动，为国家分析提供信息。其次，我们还将设计一个具有强大遗产的开放访问平台，该平台灵活，可以在这笔资金之外进一步开发集成模型。我们渴望开发一个社区模型，可以轻松地合并新的和改进的模型，并调查创新的科学和新的政策问题。因此，未来的 CCRA 和 NAP 可以与生命科学过程联系起来，借鉴不断发展的理解和利益相关者的需求。这将包括提高现有部门和领域的知识，发展更好的部门联系和互动，以及在不太成熟的部门和领域出现时添加新模式，包括重新构建和提出新问题的能力。认识到实现第二个目标的重大挑战，我们的模型将在 UKCIRC DAFNI（国家基础设施数据与分析设施）高性能计算设施内开发。该平台将设计为采用 UKCP18 和新的英国社会经济情景，以确保最佳的科学输入。该方法将明确是空间性的，并允许以系统和一致的方式突出地理热点区域和风险优先顺序，包括产出的制表和绘图。所包含的模型都是基于物理的（而不是模拟器或经验法则），这将有助于产生新的研究见解，包括英国的气候风险。重要的是，与早期的分析相比，使用基于物理的模型将能够对以前未观察到的条件进行可靠的模拟，并提高结果的可信度。