Storm Prediction Information for Decision Making at Sea

雷丁大学开展的风暴预测研究的潜在价值已经得到许多行业的认可，包括海洋、保险和石油和天然气。然而，如何解释和利用这些信息的问题构成了一个重大障碍。其中一大困难是，这些行业部门只习惯于处理静态信息，不知道如何处理时变的环境数据。为了鼓励这些商业部门进行必要的投资以克服这一障碍，有必要说明风暴预报信息在已经熟悉处理时变环境数据的商业部门中的潜在好处。海洋部门拥有这样的经验，也是对英国至关重要的一个行业部门。该项目将与英国海洋技术集团有限公司ARGOSS(BMT ARGOSS)合作进行，http://www.bmtargoss.com/)，是一家海洋环境信息供应方面的技术咨询公司、专业提供商和领先的创新者。他们已经能够处理时变数据，这使他们成为该项目的理想合作伙伴。ESSC与BMT集团有着长期的合作关系，在过去的9年里，BMT集团提供了一个研究赞助计划。海事部门与其他部门进行互动，包括保险和石油和天然气，因此将项目交付成果成功地实施到BMT的系统中将向其他行业部门展示其好处。准确的风暴预报信息对海上决策至关重要。从船舶路线到资源勘探的各种活动都需要此类信息，以优化运营并防止经济和人员损失。例如，墨西哥湾的卡特里娜飓风和其他飓风导致位于那里的石油和天然气行业一再中断，世界其他地方的运营商经常面临类似的中断。船舶路线系统旨在避免危险天气，并找到在时间和燃料成本方面最优的路线。该项目旨在开发从预报数据中提取有关风暴的预报信息的方法和工具，以用于海上决策。近年来，ESSC在分析预报模型预报风暴的能力方面发展了广泛的专业知识。这项研究特别关注一种被称为集合预测系统(EPS)的类型预测系统。EPS涉及从略有不同的初始状态多次运行模型，以生成提供关于恶劣天气事件预报的不确定性/概率的信息的预报集合。风暴跟踪方法提供了有用的风暴预报信息，这些信息不可能从业务气象中心使用的传统数据分析方法中获得。这项KE建议将使BMT ARGOSS能够利用这些新的信息，改善和扩展他们可以为客户提供的服务，从而改善海上决策。除了风暴预报信息外，来自卫星的风浪地球观测(EO)数据对于海洋作业也是必不可少的。ESSC目前正在提议在设在哈威尔的新的国际空间创新中心(ISIC)开发一个应用程序方案，因此，该中心处于一个很好的地位，可以将海洋作业所需的多颗卫星的地球观测数据汇集在一起。这项提议将通过将观测数据纳入所开发的预报工具来利用这一新计划。除海洋部门的用户外，还将向其他潜在的最终用户展示在本提案中开发的预报工具。一旦与海洋部门(世界卫生组织的信息系统已经使用时变数据)一起开发了一个工具，就更容易渗透到保险和石油和天然气部门。

The potential value of storm prediction research carried out at the University of Reading has been recognised by a number of industry sectors, including the marine, insurance and oil and gas. However, the question of how to interpret and utilise this information presents a major barrier. One of the major difficulties is that these industry sectors are only used to handling static information and do not know how to handle time-varying environmental data. In order to encourage these business sectors to make the required investments to overcome this barrier, it is necessary to illustrate the potential benefits of storm prediction information in a business sector that is already familiar with handling time-varying environmental data. The marine sector has such experience and is also an industry sector critical to the UK. This project will be carried out in collaboration with British Marine Technology Group Ltd ARGOSS (BMT ARGOSS, http://www.bmtargoss.com/), a technical consulting company, specialist provider and leading innovator in the supply of marine environmental information. They are already able to handle time varying data, making them an ideal partner for this project. ESSC has a longstanding relationship with the BMT Group, who have provided a research sponsorship program over the past 9 years. The maritime sector interacts with other sectors, including insurance and oil and gas, so a successful implementation of the project deliverables into BMT's systems will demonstrate the benefits to other industry sectors. Accurate forecast information about storms is vital for decision making at sea. Activities ranging from ship routing to resource exploration require such information to optimise operations and to prevent economic and human losses. For example Hurricane Katrina and other hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have led to repeated disruption of the oil and gas industries located there, and similar disruptions are faced regularly by operators elsewhere in the world. Ship routing systems aim to avoid dangerous weather as well as finding routes that are optimal in terms of time and fuel costs. This project aims to develop methods and tools for extracting forecast information about storms from forecast data that can be used for decision making at sea. In recent years ESSC has developed extensive expertise in analysing the ability of forecast models to predict storms. This research has particularly focused on a type forecasting system known as an Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). An EPS involves running a model multiple times from slightly different initial states to generate an ensemble of forecasts providing information about the uncertainty/probability of forecasts of severe weather events. The storm tracking approach provides useful storm focused forecast information, which it is not possible to obtain from traditional data analysis approaches used at operational weather centres. This KE proposal will enable BMT ARGOSS to utilise such novel information, to improve and extend the services they can offer their clients and thereby improve decision making at sea. In addition to storm prediction information, wind and wave Earth observation (EO) data from satellites are essential to marine operations. ESSC is currently proposing the development of an Applications program at the new International Space Innovation Centre (ISIC) based at Harwell and is thus in an excellent position to bring together EO data from multiple satellites necessary for marine operations. This proposal will exploit this new program by incorporating observational data into the forecast tools developed. The forecast tools developed in this proposal will be demonstrated to other potential end users in addition to those in the marine sector. Once a tool has been developed with the marine sector (who's information systems already use time varying data) it will be easier to penetrate the insurance and oil and gas sectors.