Earth System Modelling of Abrupt Climate Change

气候突变的地球系统建模

• 批准号: NE/I010912/1
• 负责人: Paul Valdes
• 金额: $ 38.79万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI010912%2F1
• 关键词: Earth; System; Modelling; Abrupt; Climate

Recent studies of abrupt climate change have tended to focus on rapid cooling events related to an abrupt cessation or reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, ice core records from Greenland which span the last glacial to interglacial cycle (approximately 100,000 years) indicate that abrupt warmings of the order of 10C, which took place in a few decades, are more representative of the past climatic record. Furthermore, although a clear understanding is still lacking, recent modelling efforts suggest that atmospheric dynamics could be more important in shaping these abrupt events than previously thought. We propose therefore to use an Earth System climate model which can quantitatively simulate multiple proxies recorded in Greenland ice (including temperature, methane and dust) to assess which patterns of forcings can be reconciled with these multiple ice core data constraints. We will perform sensitivity analyses to assess the potential for thresholds of abrupt atmospheric transitions and investigate their reliance on glacial topography and background climatic state. This project will therefore be the first to synthesise a number of ice-core records of abrupt climate change in a single, quantitative general circulation modelling framework and the results will place significant new constraints on our understanding of abrupt climate change in the past, and potentially in the future.

最近对气候突变的研究往往集中在与大西洋纬向翻转环流的突然停止或减少有关的快速冷却事件上。然而，来自格陵兰岛的冰芯记录跨越了末次冰期到间冰期的循环（大约10万年），表明几十年内发生的10摄氏度的突然变暖更能代表过去的气候记录。此外，尽管仍然缺乏明确的认识，但最近的建模工作表明，大气动力学在形成这些突发事件方面可能比以前认为的更重要。因此，我们建议使用一个地球系统气候模型，可以定量模拟记录在格陵兰岛冰（包括温度，甲烷和灰尘）的多个代理，以评估哪些模式的强迫可以与这些多个冰芯数据的限制。我们将进行敏感性分析，以评估突然大气转变的阈值的潜力，并调查它们对冰川地形和背景气候状态的依赖。因此，该项目将是第一个在一个单一的定量大气环流模型框架中综合若干气候突变冰芯记录的项目，其结果将对我们过去和未来对气候突变的理解产生重大的新限制。

项目成果

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3964-7
• 发表时间: 2018-08-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Hopcroft, Peter O.;Kandlbauer, Jessy;Sparks, R. Stephen J.
• 通讯作者: Sparks, R. Stephen J.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

全新世劳伦太德冰盖降低影响北大西洋环流和气候

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4111-9
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Gregoire L

Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime

• DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073740
• 发表时间: 2017-07-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Hopcroft, Peter O.;Valdes, Paul J.;Beerling, David J.
• 通讯作者: Beerling, David J.

Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System model HadGEM2-ES

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2421-0
• 发表时间: 2015-09-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Hopcroft, Peter O.;Valdes, Paul J.
• 通讯作者: Valdes, Paul J.

Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01566
• 发表时间: 2016-02-01
• 期刊: ECOGRAPHY
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Bartlett, Lewis J.;Williams, David R.;Manica, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Manica, Andrea