Earth System Modelling of Abrupt Climate Change

气候突变的地球系统建模

• 批准号: NE/I010912/1
• 负责人: Paul Valdes
• 金额: $ 38.79万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FI010912%2F1
• 关键词: Earth; System; Modelling; Abrupt; Climate

Recent studies of abrupt climate change have tended to focus on rapid cooling events related to an abrupt cessation or reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. However, ice core records from Greenland which span the last glacial to interglacial cycle (approximately 100,000 years) indicate that abrupt warmings of the order of 10C, which took place in a few decades, are more representative of the past climatic record. Furthermore, although a clear understanding is still lacking, recent modelling efforts suggest that atmospheric dynamics could be more important in shaping these abrupt events than previously thought. We propose therefore to use an Earth System climate model which can quantitatively simulate multiple proxies recorded in Greenland ice (including temperature, methane and dust) to assess which patterns of forcings can be reconciled with these multiple ice core data constraints. We will perform sensitivity analyses to assess the potential for thresholds of abrupt atmospheric transitions and investigate their reliance on glacial topography and background climatic state. This project will therefore be the first to synthesise a number of ice-core records of abrupt climate change in a single, quantitative general circulation modelling framework and the results will place significant new constraints on our understanding of abrupt climate change in the past, and potentially in the future.

关于突然气候变化的最新研究倾向于集中于与大西洋子午倾覆循环的突然停止或减少有关的快速冷却事件。然而，跨越格陵兰的冰核记录跨越了最后一次冰川到冰河间周期（约100，000年）表明，在几十年来发生的10C的突然变暖是过去气候记录的代表。此外，尽管仍然缺乏明确的理解，但最近的建模工作表明，大气动态在塑造这些突然事件方面可能比以前想象的更为重要。因此，我们建议使用一个地球系统气候模型，该模型可以定量模拟在格陵兰冰中记录的多个代理（包括温度，甲烷和灰尘）来评估可以将哪些强制模式与这些多个冰核数据约束对齐的模式。我们将进行灵敏度分析，以评估突然大气过渡的阈值的潜力，并研究它们对冰川地形和背景气候状态的依赖。因此，该项目将是第一个在一个定量的一般循环建模框架中综合许多冰核记录的冰核记录，结果将对我们对过去的突然气候变化的理解以及将来的可能性构成重大的新约束。

项目成果

Reduced cooling following future volcanic eruptions

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3964-7
• 发表时间: 2018-08-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Hopcroft, Peter O.;Kandlbauer, Jessy;Sparks, R. Stephen J.
• 通讯作者: Sparks, R. Stephen J.

Holocene lowering of the Laurentide ice sheet affects North Atlantic gyre circulation and climate

全新世劳伦太德冰盖降低影响北大西洋环流和气候

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4111-9
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Gregoire L

Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime

• DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073740
• 发表时间: 2017-07-16
• 期刊: GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: Hopcroft, Peter O.;Valdes, Paul J.;Beerling, David J.
• 通讯作者: Beerling, David J.

Robustness despite uncertainty: regional climate data reveal the dominant role of humans in explaining global extinctions of Late Quaternary megafauna

• DOI: 10.1111/ecog.01566
• 发表时间: 2016-02-01
• 期刊: ECOGRAPHY
• 影响因子: 5.9
• 作者: Bartlett, Lewis J.;Williams, David R.;Manica, Andrea
• 通讯作者: Manica, Andrea

Last glacial maximum constraints on the Earth System model HadGEM2-ES

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-014-2421-0
• 发表时间: 2015-09-01
• 期刊: CLIMATE DYNAMICS
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Hopcroft, Peter O.;Valdes, Paul J.
• 通讯作者: Valdes, Paul J.