Mitigating climate change impacts on India agriculture through improved Irrigation water Management

在这个项目中，我们建议调查气候变化和变异性对印度灌溉用水安全的影响，并评估更好的灌溉和水资源管理战略在缓解水资源短缺状况从而提高可用水生产率方面的有效性。为了评估气候变化对径流的影响，进而对流域尺度上的地下水补给和流入河流、运河和农场水库系统的影响，我们将使用经过适当校准和验证的土壤水评估工具(SWAT)水文模型，以及一系列GCMS预测和排放情景。为了更好地了解对农场规模灌溉用水需求的影响，我们建议使用现有的基于物理的根吸水模型，该模型将使用将在印度哈里亚纳邦、喜马查尔邦、北方邦和北方邦四个不同气候区的实验农场收集的数据进行进一步校准和测试。对于未来的情况，校准后的模型将与特警队模型相结合。鉴于未来评估的灌溉用水需求，将从可靠性、脆弱性、复原力和可持续性方面评估现有农田灌溉基础设施--直接取水、水库和管井--的充分性。我们建议为基础设施制定更好的运行实践--例如，加强水库的规则曲线，联合使用水库、河流、地下水等--以缓和缺水的影响，或使降水对作物生产的可获得性失去同步。该项目将涉及三个印度机构(IIT-Roorkee；NIT-Kurukshetra；NIT，Hamirpur)和两所英国大学：爱丁堡赫里奥特-瓦特大学(H-Wu)和克兰菲尔德大学(CU)的国际领先科学家之间的合作。它将建立在H-Wu团队和IIT-Roorkee团队之间现有的和蓬勃发展的合作基础上。我们将与印度的利益相关者(农民、地区和国家政策制定者)和英国领先的灌溉从业者合作。该项目将持续48个月，由以下四个工作包组成：WP 1--气候变化对印度农业水资源可获得性的影响和不确定性：该WP旨在了解气候变化对水资源可获得性的影响，并确定流域/含水层规模的径流、地下水补给和应对措施的阈值(由CU牵头)。WP2-时空降雨模式变化对作物-土壤水分状况和潜在灌溉需求的影响，以及相关的田间试验：温度和降雨模式变化对农场规模土壤水分的影响，从而未来灌溉用水量将用IIT-R基于物理的根系吸水模型进行评估，它将根据印度4个邦(由IIT-R牵头)4个地点的专门田间试验的作物产量和土壤湿度数据进行进一步校准和验证。WP 3-了解强大的灌溉水管理实践和系统的潜力，以减少未来水资源短缺的影响：将评估农场基础设施的可靠性、脆弱性和可持续性，以满足现有和气候变化条件下的灌溉用水需求。将制定和评估(由H-Wu牵头的)WP 4-利益攸关方参与和传播的更好的操作做法--灌溉用水调度；农场水库的规则和运营政策；联合使用和人工补给--这些做法对气候变化预测中的不确定性是强有力的：在整个项目期间，IIT-Roorkee将协调一系列适合具体情况的参与和传播活动，以最大限度地增加利益攸关方的认同(联合英国/印度牵头)。

In this project, we propose to investigate the effects of climate change and variability on irrigation water security in India and to evaluate the effectiveness of better irrigation and water management strategies in mitigating any water shortage situation and so improve the productivity of the available water. To assess the impacts of climate change on the runoff and hence on groundwater recharge and inflows into rivers, canals and on-farm reservoir systems at the catchment scale, we will use the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model, appropriately calibrated and validated, and a range of GCMs projections and emissions scenarios.To better understand the impacts on irrigation water requirements at the farm scale, we propose to use an existing physically-based root water uptake model that will be further calibrated and tested using data that will be collected at experimental farms in four diverse climatic zones spread over the four Indian states of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarapradesh and Uttarakhand. For future conditions, the calibrated model will be coupled with the SWAT model. Given the assessed irrigation water requirements for the future, the adequacy of existing on-farm irrigation infrastructures- direct river abstractions, reservoirs and tube wells- will be assessed in terms of reliability, vulnerability, resilience and sustainability. We propose to develop better operational practices for the infrastructures- e.g. enhanced rule curves for reservoirs, conjunctive use of reservoirs, rivers, groundwater etc- that will temper the effect of water shortages or desynchronise water availability from rainfall on crop production. The project will involve collaboration between internationally-leading scientists at 3 Indian institutions (IIT-Roorkee; NIT-Kurukshetra; NIT, Hamirpur) and 2 UK Universities: Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh (H-WU), Cranfield University (CU). It will build on an existing and thriving collaboration between the H-WU team and the team at the IIT-Roorkee. We will work with stakeholders in India (farmers, regional and regional to national policymakers) and leading UK irrigation practitioners. The project will last for 48 months and comprise four work packages as follows: WP 1- Impacts and uncertainty, of climate change on water resources availability for agriculture in India: This WP aims to understand climate change impacts on water availability and to identify thresholds in catchment/aquifer-scale runoff, groundwater recharge and responses (led by CU). WP 2- Impacts of shifting temporal and spatial rainfall patterns on crop-soil moisture regimes and potential irrigation demand, and associated field experimentation: The effects of the changing temperature and rainfall patterns on farm-scale soil moisture and hence future irrigation water requirements with be assessed with IIT-R physically-based root water uptake model, which will be further calibrated and validated against observed crop yields and soil moisture data from dedicated field experiments at 4 sites across 4 Indian states (Led by IIT-R).WP 3- Understanding the potential of robust irrigation water management practices and systems to reduce the impacts of future water scarcity: The effectiveness of on-farm infrastructures will be assessed for their reliability, vulnerability resilience and sustainability to deliver irrigation water needs for existing and climate-change conditions. Better operational practices- irrigation water scheduling; rule and operating policies for on-farm reservoirs; conjunctive use and artificial recharge- that are robust to the uncertainties in the climate change predictions will be developed and evaluated (Led by H-WU) WP 4- Stakeholder engagement and dissemination: A broad range of contextually-appropriate engagement and dissemination activities will be co-ordinated by IIT-Roorkee throughout the project duration, to maximise stakeholder buy-in (Joint UK/Indian led).