Global Volcano Model

该项目旨在建立一个全球性的全球火山模型（GVM），为火山灾害和风险提供系统的证据、数据和分析。GVM项目处理全球、区域和地方层面的危害和风险，并发展预测未来火山活动及其后果的能力。该项目建立在过去几年建立全球火山灾害数据库（VOGRIPA）和开发分析和建模工具以评估火山灾害和风险的倡议的基础上。拟议中的GVM项目还与其他主要国际倡议相辅相成并相互配合，特别是包括史密森学会的全球火山学计划、WOVOdat（火山爆发前兆数据库）、VHub（美国主导的开发火山学研究和风险缓解在线协作环境的努力，包括开发更有效的火山灾害模型）、火山观测站最佳做法方案和国际火山健康危害网络。GVM项目在提供评估火山危害和风险的权威来源的意图和范围方面与全球地震模型相似。国际上有一种强烈的共识，认为全球志愿服务是一项必要和及时的工作。该项目属于NERC战略的自然灾害主题，为英国在应对火山灾害和风险的重大国际努力中发挥主导作用提供了独特的机会。全世界每年大约有50次火山爆发，同时大约有20次正在喷发。全球火山风险的增加是由于人口增长、环境退化、城市化、不平等和全球化世界中独立性的增加等因素增加了暴露和脆弱性。由于社会的组织方式和应对紧急情况所需的系统日益复杂，特别是在影响超出国界的情况下，社会复原力也有所下降。GVM项目将开发一个关于火山危害、脆弱性和暴露的综合全球数据库系统，使其全球可访问，并使国际火山学界和用户参与设计、开发、分析和维护数据库系统的伙伴关系。主要危害包括：爆炸性喷发、火山碎屑流、熔岩穹丘、熔岩流、火山泥流、火山崩落和火山灰扩散、气体、侧翼塌陷、泥石流和健康危害。新的可靠性指标和不确定性度量将是GVM的基本要素。GVM项目旨在建立新的国际元数据标准，以减少全球火山数据集使用中的模糊性。脆弱性和暴露数据将被纳入GVM，并将再次调查和测试新的评估和分析方法。综合数据库系统将通过一个交互式网络系统提供，其中有使用空间和文本命令的搜索引擎。可下载的产品（包括地图、表格和文本）和网络系统将与最终用户共同开发。将通过上传设施便利用户增加数据。新的数据或更正将由编辑在合并之前进行验证。该项目还打算建立分析证据和数据的方法，为风险评估提供信息，开发互补的火山灾害模型，并创建相关的灾害和风险评估工具。只有一个非常广泛的国际跨学科伙伴关系，与研究用户的需求密切相关，才能实现所有这些雄心勃勃的目标。这项研究将为减灾战略、航空业对大气中火山灰的反应、土地利用规划、疏散计划和火山紧急情况管理提供科学依据。

This project aims to develop a major international effort to create a Global Volcano Model (GVM) that provides systematic evidence, data and analysis of volcanic hazards and risk. The GVM project addresses hazards and risks on global, regional and local scales, and develops the capability to anticipate future volcanism and its consequences. The project builds on initiatives over the last several years to establish a global database of volcanic hazards (VOGRIPA) and to develop analysis and modelling tools to assess volcanic hazard and risk. The proposed GVM project also complements and interfaces with other major international initiatives, notably including the Global Volcanism Progamme of the Smithsonian Institution, WOVOdat (a database on precursors to volcanic eruptions), VHub (a US-led effort to develop an online collaborative environment for volcanology research and risk mitigation, including the development of more effective volcanic hazards models), the Volcano Observatory Best Practices Programme and the International Volcanic Health Hazards Network. The GVM project has parallels with the Global Earthquake Model in intention and scope of providing an authoritative source for assessing volcanic hazard and risk. There is a strong international consensus that GVM is an essential and timely undertaking. This project, which is within the natural hazards theme of NERC's strategy, provides a unique opportunity for the UK to play a leading role in a major international effort to address volcanic hazard and risk.There are 50 or so volcanic eruptions a year worldwide with approximately 20 ongoing at any one time. Increased global volcanic risk derives from factors that are increasing exposure and vulnerability, such as population growth, environmental degradation, urbanization, inequality and increasing independencies in a globalised world. There is also a decrease in societal resilience arising from the way society is organized and the increasing complexities of systems required to respond to emergencies, especially where impacts extend beyond national boundaries. The GVM project will develop an integrated global database system on volcanic hazards, vulnerability and exposure, make this globally accessible and crucially involve the international volcanological community and users in a partnership to design, develop, analyse and maintain the database system. The main hazards include: explosive eruptions, pyroclastic flows, lava domes, lava flows, lahars, tephra fall and ash dispersal, gas, flank collapse, debris flows and health hazards. New reliability indices and measures of uncertainty will be essential elements of the GVM. The GVM project will aim to establish new international metadata standards that will reduce ambiguity in the use of global volcanic datasets. Vulnerability and exposure data will be integrated into the GVM and again new methods of assessment and analysis will be investigated and tested. The integrated database system will be made available via an interactive web system with search engines using both spatial and text-based commands. The downloadable products (including maps, tables and text) and web system will be developed with end-users. Addition of data by users will be facilitated via an upload facility. New data or corrections will be validated by an editor before being incorporated.The project also intends to establish methodologies for analysis of the evidence and data to inform risk assessment, to develop complementary volcanic hazards models, and create relevant hazards and risk assessment tools. Only a very broad international interdisciplinary partnership that is closely aligned to the needs of users of research can meet all these ambitious objectives. The research will provide the scientific basis for mitigation strategies, responses to ash in the atmosphere for the aviation industry, land-use planning, evacuation plans and management of volcanic emergencies.