RCUK-TUBITAK: Understanding volcanic risk in Turkey for improved emergency response and disaster risk reduction

RCUK-TUBITAK：了解土耳其的火山风险，以改进应急响应和减少灾害风险

• 批准号: NE/P008437/1
• 负责人: Robert Sparks
• 金额: $ 26.88万
• 依托单位: University of Bristol
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP008437%2F1
• 关键词: RCUK; TUBITAK; Understanding; volcanic; risk

Geological and historical records of the ten active volcanoes in Turkey indicate potential in several of them for major explosive eruptions. Over 4 million people live within 30 km of an active volcano and over 15 million live within 100 km. Several major cities have high exposure to volcanic risk including Kayseri and Diyarbaki. In an assessment of the global distribution of volcanic risk Turkey ranked at 14th in overall volcanic threat out of 95 volcanically active countries, reflecting high population exposure. The last major volcanic disaster in Turkey occurred in 1840 from Mount Ararat, when an estimated 1900 people lost their lives. However, there is a 70% chance of a major eruption in this century based on global statistics and preliminary analysis of Turkish eruption records. Turkey is vulnerable to volcanic hazards due to the large exposed population, lack of experience of public officials and communities with volcanic emergencies, very limited volcano monitoring, and lack of knowledge on volcanic hazards and risk. This project seeks to increase resilience in Turkey by contributing to development of appropriate volcanic emergency management plans and disaster risk reduction. The project will enable partners in Turkey to learn from those with direct experience of volcanic emergencies in order to build preparedness. This project therefore brings together the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA), the authority in Turkey charged with investigating and handling geophysical hazards, the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. This project will also draw from expertise across the global volcanological community through the Global Volcano Model network, co-chaired by University of Bristol. Improved collaborations fostered through this project will enable knowledge transfer via exchange visits designed to share experiences gained in volcanically active situations. The aim is to facilitate learning and tool development to increase the ability within Turkey to respond to future volcanic unrest and eruption. The eruptive histories of volcanoes in Turkey are very poorly understood. A key issue and first step to be addressed is to improve understanding of past activity, through literature studies, historical records, field studies and sampling, and radiometric dating. Scenarios for future eruptions of high-risk volcanoes will developed to inform planning for emergencies. Access in Eastern Turkey is limited due to the security situation. This, however, generates a need to create an innovative solution to developing studies at remote or inaccessible volcanoes, which will involve remote sensing using various tools such as satellite and aerial imagery and InSAR and identifying analogue systems. These tools developed in Turkey can be applied to other countries with volcanoes made inaccessible by security issues or limited resources. We will identify high-risk volcanoes and communities, through development of new methods for identifying vulnerable populations and population exposure, with identification of critical infrastructure. This will enable the focussing of the project at high-risk sites. We will increase monitoring capacity in Turkey through purchase and installation of crucial monitoring equipment at a high-risk volcano to significantly enhance the ability to give early warning. Training in monitoring techniques, interpretation of the monitoring signals and InSAR data will be provided. The project will also build resilience through the education of the local communities, scientists, authorities and emergency managers. Engagement with these groups will be facilitated by MTA and includes making educational communication tools about volcanic hazards and risk. A simulation exercise will be run to test emergency plans with relevant authorities, and lessons learned will be delivered to the Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).

土耳其十座活火山的地质和历史记录表明，其中几座火山有可能发生大规模爆发。400多万人生活在活火山30公里范围内，1500多万人生活在100公里范围内。几个主要城市有很高的火山风险，包括开塞利和迪亚巴基。在对全球火山风险分布的评估中，土耳其在95个火山活跃国家中的总体火山威胁排名第14位，反映了人口的高风险。土耳其上一次重大火山灾害发生在1840年的亚拉腊山，当时估计有1900人丧生。不过，根据全球统计数据和对土耳其喷发记录的初步分析，本世纪发生大喷发的可能性为70%。土耳其易受火山灾害的影响，原因是受影响人口众多，政府官员和社区缺乏火山紧急情况的经验，火山监测非常有限，以及缺乏对火山灾害和风险的了解。该项目旨在通过促进制定适当的火山应急管理计划和减少灾害风险来提高土耳其的复原力。该项目将使土耳其的合作伙伴能够向那些直接经历火山紧急情况的人学习，以建立备灾能力。因此，该项目汇集了土耳其负责调查和处理地球物理灾害的机构矿物研究和勘探总局、布里斯托大学地球科学学院和蒙特塞拉特火山观测站。该项目还将通过由布里斯托大学共同主持的全球火山模型网络，利用全球火山学界的专门知识。通过这一项目促进的更好的合作将有助于通过旨在分享在火山活跃情况下获得的经验的互访来转让知识。其目的是促进学习和工具开发，以提高土耳其应对未来火山动荡和爆发的能力。土耳其火山的喷发历史知之甚少。要解决的一个关键问题和第一步是通过文献研究、历史记录、实地研究和取样以及放射性测年法，增进对过去活动的了解。将制定未来高风险火山爆发的情景，为紧急情况规划提供信息。由于安全局势，进入土耳其东部受到限制。然而，这就需要创造一种创新的解决办法，以开展对偏远或人迹罕至的火山的研究，这将涉及利用各种工具进行遥感，如卫星和航空图像以及干涉合成孔径雷达和确定模拟系统。在土耳其开发的这些工具可应用于因安全问题或资源有限而无法进入火山的其他国家。我们将确定高风险火山和社区，方法是制定新的方法，确定脆弱人口和人口风险，并确定关键基础设施。这将使项目能够集中在高风险地点。我们将通过购买和在高风险火山安装关键监测设备来提高土耳其的监测能力，以大大提高预警能力。将提供监测技术、监测信号和干涉合成孔径雷达数据判读方面的培训。该项目还将通过对当地社区、科学家、当局和应急管理人员的教育来建设复原力。MTA将促进与这些团体的接触，包括制作关于火山灾害和风险的教育宣传工具。将进行模拟演习，与有关当局一起测试应急计划，并将吸取的经验教训提交给总理府灾害和应急管理局。

项目成果

Minimum Detectable Mass and Volume Fluxes During Magmatic Recharge at High Prominence Volcanoes: An Application to Erciyes Dag Volcano (Turkey)

高突出火山岩浆补给期间的最小可检测质量和体积通量：在埃尔吉耶斯达格火山（土耳其）的应用

• DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.750063
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Frontiers in Earth Science
• 影响因子: 2.9
• 作者: Males K

Ages and glass compositions for paired large-volume eruptions from the Acigöl volcanic complex, Cappadocia (Turkey)

卡帕多西亚（土耳其）阿西格尔火山群成对大量喷发的年龄和玻璃成分

• DOI: 10.1007/s42990-019-00013-5
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Mediterranean Geoscience Reviews
• 作者: Schmitt;Friedrichs;Sparks;Danišík;Yurteri;Gündoğdu;Schindlbeck-Belo;Çobankaya;Wang K.-L.
• 通讯作者: Wang K.-L.

New insights into source and dispersal of Mediterranean S1 tephra, an early Holocene marker horizon erupted at Mt. Erciyes (Turkey)

对地中海 S1 火山灰的来源和传播的新见解，这是埃尔吉耶斯山（土耳其）喷发的全新世早期标志地平线

• DOI: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106606
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Quaternary Science Reviews
• 影响因子: 4
• 作者: Friedrichs B