RCUK-TUBITAK: Understanding volcanic risk in Turkey for improved emergency response and disaster risk reduction

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Geological and historical records of the ten active volcanoes in Turkey indicate potential in several of them for major explosive eruptions. Over 4 million people live within 30 km of an active volcano and over 15 million live within 100 km. Several major cities have high exposure to volcanic risk including Kayseri and Diyarbaki. In an assessment of the global distribution of volcanic risk Turkey ranked at 14th in overall volcanic threat out of 95 volcanically active countries, reflecting high population exposure. The last major volcanic disaster in Turkey occurred in 1840 from Mount Ararat, when an estimated 1900 people lost their lives. However, there is a 70% chance of a major eruption in this century based on global statistics and preliminary analysis of Turkish eruption records. Turkey is vulnerable to volcanic hazards due to the large exposed population, lack of experience of public officials and communities with volcanic emergencies, very limited volcano monitoring, and lack of knowledge on volcanic hazards and risk. This project seeks to increase resilience in Turkey by contributing to development of appropriate volcanic emergency management plans and disaster risk reduction. The project will enable partners in Turkey to learn from those with direct experience of volcanic emergencies in order to build preparedness. This project therefore brings together the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA), the authority in Turkey charged with investigating and handling geophysical hazards, the School of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol and the Montserrat Volcano Observatory. This project will also draw from expertise across the global volcanological community through the Global Volcano Model network, co-chaired by University of Bristol. Improved collaborations fostered through this project will enable knowledge transfer via exchange visits designed to share experiences gained in volcanically active situations. The aim is to facilitate learning and tool development to increase the ability within Turkey to respond to future volcanic unrest and eruption. The eruptive histories of volcanoes in Turkey are very poorly understood. A key issue and first step to be addressed is to improve understanding of past activity, through literature studies, historical records, field studies and sampling, and radiometric dating. Scenarios for future eruptions of high-risk volcanoes will developed to inform planning for emergencies. Access in Eastern Turkey is limited due to the security situation. This, however, generates a need to create an innovative solution to developing studies at remote or inaccessible volcanoes, which will involve remote sensing using various tools such as satellite and aerial imagery and InSAR and identifying analogue systems. These tools developed in Turkey can be applied to other countries with volcanoes made inaccessible by security issues or limited resources. We will identify high-risk volcanoes and communities, through development of new methods for identifying vulnerable populations and population exposure, with identification of critical infrastructure. This will enable the focussing of the project at high-risk sites. We will increase monitoring capacity in Turkey through purchase and installation of crucial monitoring equipment at a high-risk volcano to significantly enhance the ability to give early warning. Training in monitoring techniques, interpretation of the monitoring signals and InSAR data will be provided. The project will also build resilience through the education of the local communities, scientists, authorities and emergency managers. Engagement with these groups will be facilitated by MTA and includes making educational communication tools about volcanic hazards and risk. A simulation exercise will be run to test emergency plans with relevant authorities, and lessons learned will be delivered to the Prime Ministry Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD).