Managing ecosystem services for food security and the nutritional health of the rural poor at the forest-agricultural interface

[提案EE112/K1396905]由于气候变化和社会经济发展步伐不断加快，预测全球变化对农村社区的影响越来越具有挑战性。英国政府的首席科学顾问约翰·贝丁顿爵士将确保食品、能源和水安全的综合需求描述为一场“完美风暴”。显然，由于食物链的不可预测性和气候变化的影响，粮食安全仍将是发展中国家的一个关键问题。贫穷农村社区的粮食安全往往在很大程度上依赖于来自“自然”环境的生态系统服务的流动。几千年来，人类一直在思考和学习经验，这些经验塑造了支撑粮食生产和土地管理的过程，解决了多种因素和权衡问题。然而，许多粮食生产系统需要集约化管理，并且容易在其最佳环境条件范围之外发生故障。人们越来越担心现有农业系统在不进一步降低关键生态系统服务(如供水、授粉)的情况下支持不断增加的人口的能力。在极端事件期间，如干旱或其他冲击或危机(环境、社会或经济)，农村社区对生态系统服务的依赖往往增加，以满足其营养和生计需要。这凸显了将农业系统对生态系统及其提供的服务的影响降至最低的重要性。应对粮食不安全的战略反过来可能对生态系统提供生态系统服务的能力产生影响，因为社会经济系统和生态系统之间反馈的空间和时间性质可能很复杂。解决自然资源管理和农村生计的可持续性问题需要跨学科的综合思考。必须充分了解从天然林到受管理景观可能发生或已经发生的复杂转变，以便能够采取促进可持续转变和/或能够减轻任何负面影响的制度。因此，该建议汇集了社会科学、经济学、生态学、风险管理、空间规划、气候变化和复杂性科学方面的专门知识，以设计和整合一套模型和方法，以分析生态系统服务的动态存量和流动如何转化为地方一级的粮食安全和营养健康。该研究将审查贫困农村社区生态系统服务、粮食安全和妇幼健康结果之间的多重(和多方向)联系，讨论三个主题：1.驱动因素、压力以及粮食安全、营养健康和生态系统服务之间的联系；2.危机和转折点：过去、现在和未来森林-农业界面上粮食不安全和生态系统服务之间的相互作用；3.科学-政策接口：我们如何管理生态系统服务，以减少粮食不安全和增加营养健康？将在哥伦比亚和马拉维的以森林和农田镶嵌为特点的地点进行家庭和家庭内部营养状况分析，并在相关空间尺度上评估和绘制生态系统服务地图，以探索在气候和社会经济变化下管理这些动态地貌的权衡和转折点。强大的新模型将预测生态系统服务将如何因人类福祉和粮食安全的驱动因素和压力而发生变化。这将使风险管理/缓解模式和战略得以制定，为国家和区域政策提供信息，以维持生态系统和支持人类福祉。

[Proposal EE112/ K1396905] Predicting the impacts of global change on rural communities is increasingly challenging due to the accelerating pace of climate change and social and economic development. The combined demands of ensuring food, energy and water security have been described as a "Perfect Storm" by Prof Sir John Beddington, HM Government's Chief Scientific adviser. It is clear that food security will continue to remain a critical issue in developing countries due to the unpredictable nature of food chains and the effects of climate change.Food security in poor rural communities often relies significantly on flows of ecosystem services from 'natural' environments. For millennia mankind has engaged in thinking and learning experiences which have shaped the processes underpinning the production of food and the management of land, addressing multiple factors and tradeoffs. However, many food production systems require intensive management and are prone to failure outside of the range of their optimal environmental conditions. Concerns are growing about the ability of current agricultural systems to support rising human populations without further degrading critical ecosystem services (such as water provisioning, pollination). During extreme events, such as drought, or other shocks or crises (environmental, social or economic), the dependence of rural communities on ecosystem services to meet their nutritional and livelihood needs often increases. This highlights the importance of minimising the impacts of agricultural systems on ecosystems and the services they provide. Strategies for coping with food insecurity may, in turn, have an impact on the capacity of ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services as the spatial and temporal nature of feedbacks between socio-economic and ecological systems can be complex. Addressing the sustainability of natural resource management and rural livelihoods requires integrated thinking across disciplines. The complex transformations which can, or have already occurred from natural forest to managed landscapes must be fully understood so that systems can be adopted which promote sustainable transformations and/or can mitigate any negative impacts. This proposal therefore brings together expertise in social sciences, economics, ecology, risk management, spatial planning, climate change and complexity sciences to design and integrate a suite of models and methods to analyse how dynamic stocks and flows of ecosystem services translate to local-level food security and nutritional health. The study will examine the multiple (and multi-directional) links between ecosystem services, food security and maternal and child health outcomes in poor rural communities, addressing three main themes:1. Drivers, pressures and linkages between food security, nutritional health and ecosystem services;2. Crises and tipping points: Past, present and future interactions between food insecurity and ecosystem services at the forest-agricultural interface;3. The science-policy interface: How can we manage ecosystem services to reduce food insecurity and increase nutritional health? Analysis of household and intra-household nutritional status and assessment and mapping of ecosystem services at the relevant spatial scales will be conducted in sites in Colombia and Malawi, which are characterised by mosaics of forests and agricultural lands, to explore the trade-offs and tipping points associated with managing these dynamic landscapes under climate and socio-economic change. Powerful new models will predict how ecosystem services will be changed by drivers and pressures for human wellbeing and food security. This will allow risk management/mitigation models and strategies to be developed which can inform national and regional policy in order to maintain ecosystems and support human wellbeing.