A modeling study of the impact of meso-scale air sea interactions over the Gulf Stream on weather and climate

这项建议中所述的研究旨在评估海洋环流变化对北大西洋和北欧(这些是冬季大气最频繁居住的国家，例如，北欧上空有强烈急流和暖湿天气的国家)冬季气候制度的影响。为此，我们将对墨西哥湾流上方的主要气旋产生区进行首次对流模拟，调查与天气和气候时间尺度相关的物理过程。这种方法是新颖的，因为：(I)所考虑的海洋强迫发生在海洋和大气锋面(10-100公里)的尺度上，位于冬季气候制度的上游。目前，气候或天气预报模型没有考虑这一物理因素。(2)它植根于对北大西洋上空尺度相互作用的明确研究。为解决这种相互作用而开发的新方法依赖于天气和气候科学家之间真正的跨学科合作。这项研究有望取得的重大突破是，如果确实发现了通过10-100公里尺度的海-气相互作用对海洋表面温度的敏感，那么将打开一个尚未开发的气候和天气可预测性来源。关于这一专题的研究议程还将转向包括对大气锋面上形成的不稳定性及其与海洋的相互作用的准确描述。该项目开展的研究将为这些相互作用提供一个可靠的初步研究和一个模式输出数据库，可在此基础上开发新一代参数。该项目还将加强其他由国家热带研究中心资助的方案中进行的研究，例如DIAMET(热带外风暴对中尺度结构的非绝热影响)，将其扩大到墨西哥湾流区域；以及快速监测(监测北纬26度的大西洋海洋环流)，提供一条新的途径，使海洋环流的变化可以向大气传达。

The research described in this proposal aims at assessing the impact of changes in ocean circulation on winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and Northern Europe (these are the states in which the atmosphere resides most frequently in winter, for example, a state with a strong Jet Stream and warm humid weather over Northern Europe). To do this we will perform the first convection permitting simulations of the dominant cyclone genesis region overlying the Gulf Stream, investigating physical processes relevant to both weather and climate time scales. The approach is novel because:(i) the oceanic forcing considered occurs on the scale of oceanic and atmospheric fronts (10-100km), upstream of the wintertime climate regimes. This physics is not currently taken into account in climate or weather forecast models. (ii) it is rooted in an explicit study of scale interactions over the North Atlantic. The new methodology developed to tackle this interaction relies on a truly interdisciplinary collaboration between weather and climate scientists. The major breakthrough expected from this research, if indeed sensitivity to sea surface temperature via air-sea interactions on the 10-100km scale is found, is that an untapped source of climate and weather predictability will be opened. The research agenda on this topic would also shift towards including an accurate representation of instabilities developing on atmospheric fronts and their interactions with the ocean. The research carried out in the project would provide a solid pilot study of these interactions and a model output database on which a new generation of parameterizations could be developed.The project will also enhance the research carried in other NERC funded programmes such as DIAMET (DIAbatic Influence on Mesoscale structures in ExTra-tropical storms) by extending its relevance to the Gulf Stream region, and RAPID-WATCH (monitoring of the Atlantic ocean circulation at 26N) by providing a new pathway through which changes in ocean circulation can be communicated to the atmosphere.