A modeling study of the impact of meso-scale air sea interactions over the Gulf Stream on weather and climate

本提案所述研究旨在评估海洋环流变化对北大西洋和北方冬季气候状况的影响（这些国家是冬季大气最常停留的国家，例如，北方上空急流强烈、气候温暖潮湿的国家）。要做到这一点，我们将进行第一次对流允许模拟的主导气旋成因地区覆盖墨西哥湾流，调查物理过程相关的天气和气候的时间尺度。该方法是新颖的，因为：（i）海洋强迫考虑发生在海洋和大气锋（10- 100公里）的尺度上，冬季气候制度的上游。目前，气候或天气预报模型中没有考虑到这种物理现象。(ii)它植根于北大西洋上空尺度相互作用的明确研究。为解决这种相互作用而开发的新方法依赖于天气和气候科学家之间真正的跨学科合作。这项研究的重大突破，如果确实发现了10- 100公里尺度上通过海气相互作用对海表温度的敏感性，那就是将打开一个尚未开发的气候和天气可预测性来源。关于这一专题的研究议程也将转向包括准确说明在大气锋面发展的不稳定性及其与海洋的相互作用。该项目开展的研究将为这些相互作用提供坚实的试点研究，并提供一个模型输出数据库，可在此基础上开发新一代参数化。该项目还将加强NERC资助的其他项目（如DIAMET）的研究（DIABATIC INFORMATION ON MEISOSCALE STRUCTURES IN EXTRA-Tropical Storms）通过将其相关性扩展到墨西哥湾流区域，和RAPID-WATCH（监测北纬26度的大西洋环流），提供了一条新的途径，通过这条途径，海洋环流的变化可以传达到大气层。

The research described in this proposal aims at assessing the impact of changes in ocean circulation on winter climate regimes over the North Atlantic and Northern Europe (these are the states in which the atmosphere resides most frequently in winter, for example, a state with a strong Jet Stream and warm humid weather over Northern Europe). To do this we will perform the first convection permitting simulations of the dominant cyclone genesis region overlying the Gulf Stream, investigating physical processes relevant to both weather and climate time scales. The approach is novel because:(i) the oceanic forcing considered occurs on the scale of oceanic and atmospheric fronts (10-100km), upstream of the wintertime climate regimes. This physics is not currently taken into account in climate or weather forecast models. (ii) it is rooted in an explicit study of scale interactions over the North Atlantic. The new methodology developed to tackle this interaction relies on a truly interdisciplinary collaboration between weather and climate scientists. The major breakthrough expected from this research, if indeed sensitivity to sea surface temperature via air-sea interactions on the 10-100km scale is found, is that an untapped source of climate and weather predictability will be opened. The research agenda on this topic would also shift towards including an accurate representation of instabilities developing on atmospheric fronts and their interactions with the ocean. The research carried out in the project would provide a solid pilot study of these interactions and a model output database on which a new generation of parameterizations could be developed.The project will also enhance the research carried in other NERC funded programmes such as DIAMET (DIAbatic Influence on Mesoscale structures in ExTra-tropical storms) by extending its relevance to the Gulf Stream region, and RAPID-WATCH (monitoring of the Atlantic ocean circulation at 26N) by providing a new pathway through which changes in ocean circulation can be communicated to the atmosphere.