A collaborative process of developing mathematical models for water quality management

开发水质管理数学模型的协作过程

• 批准号: NE/J500513/1
• 负责人: Tobias Krueger
• 金额: $ 12.56万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2011 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FJ500513%2F1
• 关键词: collaborative; process; developing; mathematical; models

Transferring a collaborative and sustainable process of developing mathematical models for decision support in the context of water quality managementRural communities in the UK face considerable challenges in managing the country’s natural resources. Long-term sustainability of the food system is a central concern of the UK Government’s food strategy1, whereas the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD; 2000/60/EC) demands ‘good’ ecological status of most of the country’s water bodies by 2015. These national policy priorities and environmental legislation constraints are augmented by regional concerns, including the recreational value of the rural landscape, the quality of life and the health of rural communities, the viability of rural businesses and rural employment, especially in food production and tourism, and biodiversity2. Along with the responsibilities and mandates of the private and public sectors, the voluntary sector in particular is seen as important in negotiating and meeting conflicting needs3. The multitude of pressures and the complexity of the environment require scientific tools to support the management of natural resources. Mathematical models are essential for achieving this by making complexity comprehensible and manageable. However, there is growing evidence that models developed from a research perspective alone are often not used in practice4, not least because of1 Defra (2010). Food 2030. http://www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/food/pdf/food2030strategy.pdf (24.05.2010); subject to policies and priorities of the new government2 RELU (2005). The Unfolding Research Agenda. Rural Economy and Land Use Programme Briefing Series No. 3. http://www.relu.ac.uk/news/briefings/RELU%20Brief3%2024pp.pdf (24.05.2010)3 Smith, L. E. D., H. Cook, A. Inman, D. Benson and A. Jordan (2010). Sinking or swimming? Surveying community based catchment groups in England and Wales. Water and Environment 2010, CIWEM’s Annual Conference, April 28th-29th, London, UK4 Nilsson, M., A. Jordan, J. Turnpenny, J. Hertin, B. Nykvist and D. Russel (2008). The use and non-use of policy appraisal tools in public policy making: an analysis of three European countries and the European Union. Policy Sciences 41(4): 335-355Page 3 of 13incoherence between end-user expectations and model deliverables. Current UK Research Councils-funded research by the applicants shows that this situation can be reversed if a novel collaborative process of model development is adopted where the product is tailored to the end-user needs and those stakeholders key in making decisions and delivering the necessary actions are involved5. This process ensures credibility and scientific rigour of models, allows improvement of models by incorporating stakeholder knowledge, and builds trust in models from those deciding or affected by the decisions. Considerable KE opportunities exist for transferring this collaborative process of model development, strengthening capacity in the public and voluntary sectors to take it up, and building long-term relationships between research institutions and these sectors to ensure sustainability of the process.

转让的协作和可持续发展的过程中，决策支持的数学模型的背景下，水质managementRural社区在英国面临着相当大的挑战，在管理国家的自然资源。食品系统的长期可持续性是英国政府食品战略的核心问题1，而欧盟水框架指令（WFD; 2000/60/EC）要求到2015年，该国大部分水体的生态状况“良好”。这些国家政策优先事项和环境立法限制因区域问题而加剧，包括农村景观的娱乐价值、农村社区的生活质量和健康、农村企业和农村就业的可行性，特别是在粮食生产和旅游业以及生物多样性2。沿着私营和公共部门的责任和任务，志愿部门在谈判和满足相互冲突的需要方面尤其重要。环境的多重压力和复杂性需要科学工具来支持自然资源的管理。数学模型通过使复杂性变得可理解和可管理来实现这一目标。然而，越来越多的证据表明，仅仅从研究角度开发的模型往往没有在实践中使用4，尤其是因为1 Defra（2010）。2030年粮食。http://www.defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/food/pdf/food2030strategy.pdf（24.05.2010）;取决于新政府的政策和优先事项2 UNICEF（2005）。展开研究议程。农村经济和土地使用方案简报系列第3号。http://www.relu.ac.uk/news/briefings/RELU%20Brief3%2024pp.pdf（24.05.2010）3 Smith，L. E. D、H.库克A. Inman，D. Benson和A.约旦（2010年）。下沉还是游泳？调查英格兰和威尔士的社区集水区群体。2010年水与环境，CIWEM年会，4月28日至29日，英国伦敦4 Nilsson，M.，A. Jordan，J. Turnpenny，J. Hertin，B. Nykvist和D. Russel（2008年）。公共政策制定中政策评估工具的使用和不使用：对三个欧洲国家和欧盟的分析。政策科学41（4）：335- 355第3页，共13页最终用户的期望和模型可交付成果之间的不一致。申请人目前由英国研究委员会资助的研究表明，如果采用一种新的模型开发协作过程，即根据最终用户的需求量身定制产品，并且参与决策和采取必要行动的利益相关者，这种情况可以逆转5。这一过程确保了模型的可信性和科学严谨性，允许通过纳入利益相关者的知识来改进模型，并从决策者或受决策影响者那里建立对模型的信任。存在着大量的知识和创新机会，可以转移这种模式开发的合作进程，加强公共和志愿部门的能力，并在研究机构和这些部门之间建立长期关系，以确保这一进程的可持续性。

项目成果

Patterns of Land Degradation in Drylands

旱地土地退化模式

• DOI: 10.1007/978-94-007-5727-1_10
• 发表时间: 2014
• 作者: Brazier R

Bayesian inference of uncertainty in freshwater quality caused by low-resolution monitoring.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.watres.2017.02.061
• 发表时间: 2017-05
• 期刊: Water research
• 影响因子: 12.8
• 作者: T. Krueger

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology: rainfall, river discharge and water quality

• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9384
• 发表时间: 2012-12
• 期刊: Hydrological Processes
• 影响因子: 3.2
• 作者: H. McMillan;T. Krueger;J. Freer