Evaluating and modelling the impact of extreme events on South African dryland rivers: Cyclone Dando (January 2012)

评估和模拟极端事件对南非旱地河流的影响：气旋丹多（2012 年 1 月）

• 批准号: NE/K001132/1
• 负责人: David Milan
• 金额: $ 5.39万
• 依托单位: University of Gloucestershire
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2012
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2012 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FK001132%2F1
• 关键词: Evaluating; modelling; impact; extreme; events

In mid January 2012, Cyclone Dando struck southern Africa, leading to widespread heavy rainfall (450-500 mm in 48 hours) & flooding in the Kruger National Park (KNP), eastern South Africa. This flooding occurred just 12 years after the last major catastrophic flooding in the KNP (Jan/Feb 2000), which also caused dramatic river channel & vegetation changes. Using data acquired from light aircraft (photographs, LiDAR) together with field surveying & sediment sampling, this study will exploit a rare opportunity to investigate the flooding, erosion & sedimentation that occurred during the January 2012 event along three rivers in the KNP. The data obtained will be compared with pre-existing data that were collected prior to & following the 2000 flooding in the KNP, & then combined with state-of-the-art computer models to simulate flow characteristics during floods & the longer term response of the rivers to sequences of extreme floods. The aerial, field & modelling results will help to develop new conceptual models of the response of these rivers to extreme events. Such models will have practical application, both for river managers in the KNP & farther afield. Many climate change scenarios predict future increases in the size & frequency of extreme flood events in southern Africa & other dryland regions, & better understanding of the spatial extent of flooding, erosion & sedimentation will contribute to improved flood hazard management & environmental stewardship.

2012年1月中旬，气旋丹多袭击了南部非洲，导致大范围强降雨(48小时内450-500毫米)，并导致南非东部克鲁格国家公园(KNP)洪水泛滥。这次洪灾发生在KNP上一次重大洪灾(2000年1月/2月)刚刚过去12年，那次洪灾也造成了河道和植被的巨大变化。利用从轻型飞机上获取的数据(照片，LiDAR)以及实地调查和沉积物采样，这项研究将利用一个难得的机会调查2012年1月事件期间发生在KNP三条河流上的洪水、侵蚀和沉积。所获得的数据将与在2000年KNP洪水之前和之后收集的先前存在的数据进行比较，然后与最先进的计算机模型相结合，以模拟洪水期间的水流特征&河流对极端洪水序列的较长期反应。航空、野外和模拟结果将有助于开发这些河流对极端事件的反应的新概念模型。这样的模型将对KNP和更远地区的河流管理者具有实际应用。许多气候变化情景预测未来南部非洲和其他干旱地区极端洪水事件的规模和频率会增加，更好地了解洪水、侵蚀和沉积的空间范围将有助于改进洪水风险管理和环境管理。

项目成果

Long-term flood controls on semi-arid river form: evidence from the Sabie and Olifants rivers, eastern South Africa

对半干旱河流形态的长期防洪：来自南非东部萨比河和奥利芬茨河的证据

• DOI: 10.5194/piahs-367-141-2015
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
• 作者: Heritage G

Morphodynamic simulation of sediment deposition patterns on a recently stripped bedrock anastomosed channel

新剥离基岩吻合河道沉积物沉积模式的形态动力学模拟

• DOI: 10.5194/piahs-377-51-2018
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
• 作者: Milan D

Topographic, Hydraulic, and Vegetative Controls on Bar and Island Development in Mixed Bedrock-Alluvial, Multichanneled, Dryland Rivers

混合基岩冲积、多河道、旱地河流中坝和岛屿发育的地形、水力和植被控制

• DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026101
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Milan D

Anastomosing reach control on hydraulics and sediment distribution on the Sabie River, South Africa

南非萨比河水力和沉积物分布的吻合河段控制

• DOI: 10.5194/piahs-367-215-2015
• 发表时间: 2015
• 期刊: Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences
• 作者: Entwistle N

Quantifying and contextualising cyclone-driven, extreme flood magnitudes in bedrock-influenced dryland rivers

对受基岩影响的旱地河流中气旋驱动的极端洪水强度进行量化和背景分析

• DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2018.11.006
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: Advances in Water Resources
• 影响因子: 4.7
• 作者: Heritage G