Integrating Macroecology and Modelling to Elucidate Regulation of Services from Ecosystems (IMMERSE)

整合宏观生态学和建模来阐明生态系统服务的监管（IMMERSE）

• 批准号: NE/L003120/1
• 负责人: Michael Heath
• 金额: $ 34.86万
• 依托单位: University of Strathclyde
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2014
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2014 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FL003120%2F1
• 关键词: Integrating; Macroecology; Modelling; Elucidate; Regulation

Coastal and shelf marine ecosystems are highly productive, bringing great benefits to humans. These benefits, called "ecosystem services" include food supply, recycling and recreation. Coastal and shelf seas are rich, productive and close to large human populations, so they are under great pressure from factors such as fishing and climate change.Despite years of intensive study, our knowledge of how shelf ecosystems work is still patchy. Therefore we cannot yet predict how they will respond to changes. IMMERSE combines researchers with complementary track records from across 11 UK institutes. We will develop an integrated, whole-ecosystem approach to understand how changes occur in marine ecosystems and how these affect the services they provide. We will a) synthesise and analyse the vast array of existing, but scattered, data, b) target key data gaps and choke-points in our understanding with focussed fieldwork and experimentation and c) combine these into a suite of computer models that explore future consequences of changes and perturbations for ecosystem services. Our geographical focus will be the western seas, from the western English Channel, through the Celtic and Irish Seas, to western Scotland, although relevant data will be included from a wider area.The novelty of this project is fourfold: First, we will use novel web-based approaches to combine existing datasets and rate process measurements, from microbes to whales, and at whole shelf scales. By combining these datasets and published data, we can deduce the underlying "ecological rules" that operate at the level of the individual but lead to patterns at the ecosystem scale - for example how an organism's mortality or feeding rate depends on its body size and the ambient temperature.Second we will target key knowledge gaps by applying the latest method developments in understanding food webs. We will use isotopic methods to trace the relative input of seaweed and planktonic algae into the base of the food web; we will follow these isotopic tracers in the lab and in the wild to understand exactly how these plants are incorporated into the rest of food web; we will use new image analysis technology to quantify the full size range of organisms in the sea; and we will use the latest molecular techniques to trace who eats whom. The third novelty is that we will use not just one model to understand these ecosystem linkages but six models, all based on different assumptions. This "ensemble" approach is similar to climate forecasting, but is in its infancy in the sea. We will inform these models with the data synthesised and collected above, and then compare the output across the whole ensemble. This approach limits the shortcomings of any single model for a more robust picture of how the ecosystem works. These models will then be challenged with different scenarios of change, for example changing fishing effort or establishing conservation zones, with and without warming.The fourth novelty of our approach is that we include a small but important socioeconomic part to our proposal. This will enable policy makers to convert the output from models into economic valuations and indicators, so that judgements can be made on management decisions for a suite of marine ecosystem services.IMMERSE is part of a larger NERC funding scheme, and its outputs spanning the whole of the food web will be tailored to support the next two rounds of funding: first in developing NERC's model of the lower reaches of the food web, and second in testing efficiency of potential management interventions. The legacies of this project will include tools and combined datasets that will place the UK in a leading position to understand whole ecosystems and the consequences of change in terms of ecosystem services.

沿海和大陆架海洋生态系统生产力很高，给人类带来巨大利益。这些好处被称为“生态系统服务”，包括食物供应、回收利用和娱乐。沿海和大陆架海资源丰富、多产，而且靠近大量人口，因此它们面临着渔业和气候变化等因素的巨大压力。尽管经过多年的深入研究，我们对大陆架生态系统如何运作的了解仍然不完整。因此，我们还无法预测他们将如何应对变化。IMMERSE将来自11个英国研究所的研究人员与互补的跟踪记录相结合。我们将制定一个综合的全生态系统方法，以了解海洋生态系统如何发生变化，以及这些变化如何影响它们提供的服务。我们将a）综合和分析大量现有的，但分散的，数据，B）目标的关键数据差距和阻塞点，在我们的理解与集中的实地考察和实验和c）联合收割机这些到一套计算机模型，探索未来的变化和扰动生态系统服务的后果。我们的地理重点将是西部海域，从西部英吉利海峡，通过凯尔特和爱尔兰海，苏格兰西部，虽然相关数据将包括从更广泛的区域。该项目的新奇是四个方面：首先，我们将使用新颖的基于网络的方法结合联合收割机现有的数据集和速率过程测量，从微生物到鲸鱼，并在整个货架尺度。通过结合这些数据集和已发表的数据，我们可以推断出在个体水平上起作用但在生态系统尺度上导致模式的潜在“生态规则”-例如，生物体的死亡率或进食率如何取决于其体型和环境温度。其次，我们将通过应用最新的方法来理解食物网，从而瞄准关键的知识缺口。我们将使用同位素方法来追踪海藻和浮游藻类进入食物网底层的相对输入量;我们将在实验室和野外跟踪这些同位素示踪剂，以确切了解这些植物是如何融入食物网其余部分的;我们将使用新的图像分析技术来量化海洋中生物体的全尺寸范围;我们将使用最新的分子技术来追踪谁吃了谁。第三个新奇是，我们将使用六个模型来理解这些生态系统之间的联系，而不仅仅是一个模型，所有模型都基于不同的假设。这种“集合”方法类似于气候预测，但在海洋中还处于起步阶段。我们将用上面合成和收集的数据通知这些模型，然后比较整个集合的输出。这种方法限制了任何单一模型的缺点，以更强大地了解生态系统如何运作。然后，这些模型将受到不同变化情景的挑战，例如，改变捕捞努力量或建立保护区，有或没有变暖。我们方法的第四个新奇是，我们在我们的提案中包括了一个小但重要的社会经济部分。这将使政策制定者能够将模型的产出转化为经济估值和指标，以便对一系列海洋生态系统服务的管理决策做出判断。IMMERSE是更大的NERC资助计划的一部分，其涵盖整个食物网的产出将被定制以支持下两轮资助：首先是开发NERC的食物网下游模型，其次是测试潜在管理干预措施的效率。该项目的遗产将包括工具和综合数据集，这些工具和数据集将使英国在了解整个生态系统以及生态系统服务变化的后果方面处于领先地位。

项目成果

Population density and temperature correlate with long-term trends in somatic growth rates and maturation schedules of herring and sprat.

种群密度和温度与鲱鱼和鲱鱼的体细胞生长率和成熟时间表的长期趋势相关。

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0212176
• 发表时间: 2019
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Hunter A

Cascading ecological effects of eliminating fishery discards.

• DOI: 10.1038/ncomms4893
• 发表时间: 2014-05-13
• 期刊: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
• 影响因子: 16.6
• 作者: Heath, Michael R.;Cook, Robin M.;Cameron, Angus I.;Morris, David J.;Speirs, Douglas C.
• 通讯作者: Speirs, Douglas C.

The Response of North Sea Ecosystem Functional Groups to Warming and Changes in Fishing

北海生态系统功能群对变暖和捕捞变化的响应

• DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.841909
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Frontiers in Marine Science
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Thorpe R

Modelling the whole-ecosystem impacts of trawling

模拟拖网捕捞对整个生态系统的影响

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Heath, M

A general framework for combining ecosystem models

组合生态系统模型的通用框架

• DOI: 10.1111/faf.12310
• 发表时间: 2018
• 期刊: Fish and Fisheries
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Spence M