Tracking and prediction of the path of the Giant Pine Island iceberg

自2011年11月以来，人们已经知道，在不久的将来，一座长约30公里的巨大冰山可能会从松岛冰川（75 S，100 W）断裂进入南极洲西部的阿蒙森海。这已经发生了（2013年7月9日），冰山将很快开始在南极沿岸流中向西移动到罗斯海。这是自2001年以来第一个从松岛冰川崩解的如此巨大的冰山。乍一看，它可能的初始轨迹并没有引起环境问题，只是南极洲西部周围的淡水流量缓慢而持续地增加，这一地区没有主要的深水形成。然而，该位置之前的一座巨型冰山最终加入了南极绕极流（ACC），并穿过德雷克海峡，进入南大西洋，因此可能对航行造成危险，并成为靠近重要深水和中层水形成区域的上层海洋淡水来源。在本紧急提案中，我们打算跟踪这座冰山，但更重要的是，此外，还应预测赠款期限之后的可能路径和环境影响，因为赠款的使用期限可能长达数年而不是数月。我们将使用谢菲尔德大学开发的ITSARI冰跟踪软件算法来跟踪和描述面积的演变以及南安普顿大学开发的海洋-冰山耦合模型NEMO-ICB，预测冰山在数月到数年内的路径。我们预计这将提供及时的冰山航行或海洋学后果的警告发布，但也测试一种技术，供以后由冰灾警报服务部门实施。

Since November 2011 it has been known that a giant iceberg, some 30 km long, is likely to break off Pine Island glacier (75S, 100W) into the Amundsen Sea off west Antarctica in the near future. This has now occurred (9 July 2013) and the iceberg will soon begin to move westwards in the Antarctic Coastal Current towards the Ross Sea. This is the first such giant iceberg to calve from Pine Island glacier since 2001. Its likely initial trajectory, at first sight, does not raise environmental issues apart from a slow and persistent increase in the freshwater flux around west Antarctica, an area without major deep water formation. However, a previous giant iceberg from this location eventually joined the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and passed through the Drake Passage, entering the South Atlantic and so potentially posing both a navigation hazard and a source of upper ocean freshwater close to regions of significant deepwater and intermediate water formation.In this Urgency proposal we intend to track this iceberg, but, more importantly, to also predict its likely path and environmental impact beyond the duration of a grant, as its lifetime is likely to extend over years rather than months. We will use the ITSARI ice tracking software algorithm, developed at the University of Sheffield, to track and describe the evolution of area (and break-up) of the giant iceberg, and the coupled ocean-iceberg model NEMO-ICB, developed at the University of Southampton, to predict the iceberg's path over months to years.We anticipate that this will provide a timely warning of any navigation or oceanographic consequences of the iceberg's release, but also test a technique for later implementation by ice hazard warning services.