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Impact of sequence of extreme storms during 2013/14 winter on southwest coast of England

2013/14 冬季一系列极端风暴对英格兰西南海岸的影响

基本信息

批准号：
NE/M004996/1
负责人：
Gerhard Masselink
金额：
$ 6.45万
依托单位：
Plymouth University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2014
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2014 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM004996%2F1
关键词：
Impact sequence extreme storms during

项目摘要

During the 2013/2014 winter, the southwest coast of England experienced an unprecedented sequence of very energetic wave conditions, including 4 extremely energetic and named storms. According to the Met Office, the storm Hercules on 6 January 2014 was a 1:5 to 1:10 year wave event alone, whereas the storm Petra on 5 February 2014 was probably the most damaging storm in terms of coastal impact on the south coast of Devon and Cornwall for the last 50 years. Furthermore, analysis of modelled and measured wave data shows that the 8-week sequence of storms from mid-December 2013 to 10 February 2014 represents the most energetic period of waves to have hit the southwest coast of England since 1950, and thus represents at least a 1:60 year event. The collective impact of these Atlantic storms on the southwest coast of England has been enormous and this has been made obvious by the extensive media coverage of these events. Many changes to the coastal landscape are likely to be permanent and damage to coastal infrastructure will take months and tens of millions of £'s to repair.This Urgency Proposal aims to assess the impacts of this sequence of extreme storms on both the physical and human coastal environment in the southwest of England, and evaluate the vulnerability of this region to such extreme Atlantic storms. The topic is timely and relevant, because the Met Office predicts that such energetic wave conditions will become more frequent in the future due to climate change. The urgency part of the proposed research will be the recording of direct storm impacts and the collection of a baseline data set for post-storm recovery; the follow-up aspects of the grant include the analysis of the field data, numerical modelling of the wave conditions, and assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of the coastal environment to such extreme wave events.The study area includes the coastlines of the Duchy of Cornwall and the Counties of Somerset, Devon and Dorset, and extends from Weston-super-Mare in the north to Bournemouth in the southeast, but the emphasis of the study will be on the coastline of Devon and Cornwall. The research project consists of five work packages: (1) coastal monitoring, involving the measurement of the physical changes caused by the extreme storms on a large number of sites (> 25) in the southwest of England; (2) bathymetric surveys at two selected sites on the north and south Cornish coast to determine storm impacts in the subtidal zone and the fate of the eroded beach sediments; (3) capturing the immediate experiences of local communities and responsible agencies using a combination of interviews, media analysis and social network analysis at c. 10 sites in the southwest of England; (4) wave analysis and modelling to investigate the spatial variability in the storm wave field and compare the 2013/2014 winter period with previous years; and (5) constructing a Atlantic Storm Coastal Impact Map for the southwest coast of England, using GoogleEarth as the platform, that represents an extensive catalogue of the coastal impacts (physical and human) related to the 2013/14 winter storm period, as well as a comprehensive overview of the forcing wave conditions.This 12-month project will be carried out by researchers of the Coastal Processes Research Group and the Marine and Coastal Policy Research Centre at Plymouth University, with the Southwest Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme and the Met Office as project partners.The six key outputs of the project are: (1) project website and facebook page to engage with the public; (2) article for Geography Journal to disseminate the research finding to A-level students; (3) at least one international conference presentation; (4) at least one scientific journal paper; (5) Atlantic Storm Coastal Impact Map; and (6) a one-day Stakeholder Workshop to bring together the various coastal stakeholders in an interactive forum.

在2013/2014年冬季，英格兰西南海岸经历了前所未有的一系列非常强烈的海浪条件，包括4次极其强烈的命名风暴。根据英国气象局的数据，2014年1月6日的“大力神”风暴仅是1:5到1:10年一次的波浪事件，而2014年2月5日的“佩特拉”风暴可能是过去50年来对德文郡和康沃尔郡南海岸影响最大的风暴。此外，对模拟和实测海浪数据的分析表明，从2013年12月中旬到2014年2月10日的8周风暴序列代表了自1950年以来袭击英格兰西南海岸的最强海浪时期，因此至少代表了1:60年的事件。这些大西洋风暴对英格兰西南海岸的集体影响是巨大的，媒体对这些事件的广泛报道表明了这一点。沿海景观的许多变化可能是永久性的，对沿海基础设施的破坏将需要数月的时间和数千万英镑的修复。本紧急提案旨在评估这一系列极端风暴对英格兰西南部沿海自然环境和人类环境的影响，并评估该地区对这种极端大西洋风暴的脆弱性。这个话题是及时和相关的，因为英国气象局预测，由于气候变化，这种高能波浪条件在未来将变得更加频繁。拟议研究的紧急部分将是记录风暴的直接影响和收集风暴后恢复的基线数据集；拨款的后续工作包括实地数据分析、海浪条件的数值模拟，以及评估海岸环境对这种极端海浪事件的脆弱性和复原力。研究区域包括康沃尔公国和萨默塞特郡、德文郡和多塞特郡的海岸线，并从北部的超级马雷韦斯顿延伸到东南部的伯恩茅斯，但研究的重点将放在德文郡和康沃尔郡的海岸线上。该研究项目包括五个工作包：(1)海岸监测，包括在英格兰西南部大量地点（bbbb25）测量极端风暴引起的物理变化；(2)在康沃尔海岸北部和南部的两个选定地点进行水深测量，以确定风暴对潮下带的影响和侵蚀海滩沉积物的命运；(3)结合访谈、媒体分析和社会网络分析，在英格兰西南部约10个地点捕捉当地社区和负责机构的直接经验；(4)对2013/2014年冬季风暴波场空间变异性进行分析和模拟，并与往年进行比较；(5)以GoogleEarth为平台，为英格兰西南海岸构建大西洋风暴海岸影响图，该图代表了与2013/14年冬季风暴期相关的海岸影响（物理和人为）的广泛目录，以及强迫波条件的全面概述。这个为期12个月的项目将由普利茅斯大学海岸过程研究小组和海洋与海岸政策研究中心的研究人员进行，西南区域海岸监测计划和英国气象局作为项目合作伙伴。项目的六个主要产出是：(1)项目网站和facebook页面，与公众互动；(2)在《地理学报》发表文章，向A-level学生传播研究成果；(3)至少一次国际会议报告；（四）发表科学期刊论文一篇以上；(5)大西洋风暴海岸影响图；(6)举办为期一天的利益相关者研讨会，将沿海各利益相关者聚集在一个互动论坛上。