Coastal modelling of extreme storms and sea-level rise (CMESSLR)

目前，超过6亿人生活在平均海平面以上10米以上，海平面上升(SLR)和气候变化可能导致的暴风雨变化，将使这些沿海社区越来越多地面临海岸洪水和侵蚀的风险。要预测这些气候变化后果对沿海的影响，并帮助设计应对这些影响的适应战略，需要在一系列时间尺度上运行准确和强大的数值模型，从实时和可操作的沿海洪水模型到长期和战略性的沿海演变模型。普利茅斯大学海岸过程研究小组参与了两项主要的数值模拟工作：(1)与EA洪水预报小组合作，开发了英格兰西南部海岸洪水模型；(2)在环境署的参与下，模拟珊瑚礁岛屿对海平面上升的反应。这些模型可以显著改进。例如，业务海岸洪水模型是水动力学模型，而不是地貌动力学模型，珊瑚礁岛模型还不够先进，不足以处理岛屿的长期演变。通过与荷兰(Deltares)、新西兰(奥克兰大学)和美国(USGS)机构的许多世界领先的海岸研究人员和模型师的互动和合作，这笔海外旅行补助金的目的是资助为期6个月的休假，以提高Pi Masselink的海岸建模能力，并将这种加深的了解传授给普利茅斯海岸研究团队(CPRG和Cmar)的其他成员，可能会对普利茅斯大学的海岸研究和建模能力产生革命性影响。计划从2020年1月中旬至2020年7月中旬连续访问3个月，为期2个月。研究访问的直接目的是：(1)研究世界领先的模型制作者的最新海岸数值模拟技术，并就一些专题/问题与他们及其学生合作；(2)加强与沿海数值模型制作者和珊瑚礁专家的现有国际合作，并发展新的国际合作；(3)在珊瑚礁岛环境中开展研究，以提高实地专门知识；除了与皮马斯林克及其研究小组的研究访问有关的直接好处外，预计访问还将产生以下切实的成果：*向一份关于珊瑚岛地貌动力学模型的高影响力期刊提交一篇全文论文。这篇论文很可能是由大多数研究访问东道主共同撰写的。*提交给《自然/科学》的一封简短的信/评论，论证地貌动力学模型对评估珊瑚礁岛屿的长期未来的重要性。*提交给国家环境研究中心的一份大型拨款提案，其主题是珊瑚礁岛屿对SLR的地貌动力学反应，涉及至少一名研究访问东道主作为外部合作伙伴。*提交给EPSRC的一份标准研究拨款，重点是对沿海洪水风险进行建模，包括地貌动力学。这项建议还可能包括至少一名研究访问东道主作为外部合作伙伴。

SUMMARYCurrently, more than 600 million people live <10 m above mean sea level, and sea-level rise (SLR) and potential changes in storminess, due to climate change, will increasingly expose these coastal communities to increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion. To predict coastal impacts of these climate change consequences, and help design adaptation strategies to deal with these impacts, requires accurate and robust numerical models operating over a range of time scales, from real-time and operational coastal flooding models to long-term and strategic coastal evolution models. A very wide variety of commercial and bespoke numerical coastal impact models are available and 'coastal modelling' has developed into a large and important research area.Led by PI Masselink, the Coastal Processes Research Group at the University of Plymouth is involved with two major numerical modelling efforts: (1) development of an operational coastal flooding model for the SW coast of England in collaboration with the EA flood forecasting team; and (2) modelling the response of coral reef islands to sea-level rise with involvement of UNEP. These models can be significantly improved. For example, the operational coastal flooding model is a hydrodynamic, rather than a morphodynamic model, and the coral reef island modelling is not yet advanced enough to deal with long-term island evolution. Through interaction and collaboration with a number of world-leading coastal researchers and modellers at institutions in the Netherlands (Deltares), New Zealand (University of Auckland) and the United States (USGS), the aim of this Overseas Travel Grant is to fund a 6-month sabbatical to increase PI Masselink's coastal modelling capabilities and transfer this enhanced understanding to other members of Plymouth's coastal research team (CPRG and CMAR), potentially leading to transformative impacts on the coastal research and modelling capabilities at the University of Plymouth. Three back-to-back 2-month visits are planned from mid-January 2020 to mid-July 2020. The direct purpose of the research visits is to: (1) study up-to-date numerical coastal modelling techniques from world-leading modellers and collaborate with them and their students on a number of topics/issues; (2) strengthen existing and develop new international collaborations with coastal numerical modellers and coral reef experts; (3) carry out research in a coral reef island environment to enhance field expertise; and (4) produce a number of tangible outputs and impacts.In addition to the direct benefits associated with the research visits for PI Masselink and his research group, the following tangible outputs of the visits are anticipated:* A full-length paper submitted to a high-impact journal on the coral reef island morphodynamic modelling. This paper is likely to be co-authored by most of the research visit hosts.* A short letter/commentary submitted to Nature/Science arguing the importance of morphodynamic modelling to evaluate the long-term future of coral reef islands.* One large grant proposal submitted to NERC defined around the topic of morphodynamic response of coral reef islands to SLR involving at least one of the research visit hosts as external partner.* One standard research grant submitted to EPSRC focussing on modelling coastal flood risk, including the morphodynamics. This proposal is also likely to involve at least one of the research visit hosts as external partner.