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Ocean Dynamics as Driver of Seasonal to Decadal European Atmospheric variability (ODYSEA)

海洋动力学作为欧洲大气季节到十年变化的驱动因素（ODYSEA）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/M006115/1
负责人：
Sybren Drijfhout
金额：
$ 8.95万
依托单位：
University of Southampton
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2015
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2015 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FM006115%2F1
关键词：
Ocean Dynamics Driver Seasonal Decadal

项目摘要

ODYSEA will assess how, when, and where the ocean affects atmospheric variability and weather in Europe and in particular in the UK on timescales up to a decade. Particular emphasis will be on the identification of oceanic "early warning signs" that indicate the development of unusually warm, cold, dry or wet conditions several months or years in advance, especially related to extreme weather events. Such early warning signs can include changes in the ocean surface temperature or in the position of major ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream.The best known role of the ocean for climate and weather is as a reservoir of heat and moisture. The ocean stores 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere. Heat stored in the ocean during summer moderates winter temperatures and in summer the large ocean heat capacity ensures that ocean temperatures rise less than on land areas, meaning that in summer the ocean cools the climate of surrounding land masses. This maritime effect is pronounced for the climate of the UK, Europe and Northwest America, with winters that are warmer and summers that are cooler than in other regions at similar latitudes. North Atlantic moisture is the source of a substantial fraction of the precipitation affecting Europe. A recent prominent example is the very unsettled spell of weather that led to widespread flooding in the UK in late 2013/early 2014. Together, the ocean and the atmosphere reduce the temperature difference between low and high latitudes by carrying heat from the tropics to high latitudes. In the Atlantic a circulation called the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) transports heat northward at a rate of more than 1000 Terawatts (TW) - equivalent to the energy produced by 1,000,000 average sized nuclear power stations. This heat transport leads to an additional warming of Western Europe that is present throughout the year and temperatures in Western Europe are on average higher than at similar latitudes in the maritime climate of Northwest America.Over the mid-latitudes heat and moisture from the North Atlantic is carried towards Europe and well into Eurasia by the predominantly westerly winds (in particular the North Atlantic storm track). In ODYSEA we will investigate how variability in the ocean circulation modulates the atmospheric exchange between ocean and land. Research suggests that meanders of the Gulf Stream affect the atmosphere in a region that is key to the formation of North Atlantic Storms. The MOC has also been shown to be highly variable with likely impacts on ocean surface temperatures. This affects the amount of heat released to the atmosphere overlying the ocean, but also the efficiency and direction by which this heat is carried towards the continents. A recent study performed at NOC suggests that anomalies of surface ocean temperatures were key to the development of the atmospheric conditions that led to the extremely cold December of 2010. These anomalous ocean surface temperatures were preceded by a particularly weak MOC in 2009. In ODYSEA we will establish if similar oceanic impacts can be identified for previous weather extremes that have affected Europe and the UK (e.g. wet summers of 2005, 2007 and 2012, the heat waves in the summer of 2003 and of July 2006). Emphasis will be on acquiring a better understanding of the mechanisms through which the ocean can impact the atmosphere and therefore our weather and climate. Current knowledge strongly suggests that the ocean affects variability of European weather and climate on timescales of months to years, but the underlyingmechanisms are far from fully understood. This hampers prediction and attribution of those events. ODYSEA will reduce this gap in our understanding of the variability of UK/European weather and climate by using cutting edge ocean and atmosphere models available in the UK as well as by analysing data from the latest seasonal to decadal forecasting systems run by the UK Met Office.

ODYSEA将在长达十年的时间尺度上评估海洋如何、何时、何地影响欧洲特别是英国的大气变化和天气。将特别强调查明海洋“早期预警信号”，即提前几个月或几年指明异常暖、冷、干或湿情况的发展，特别是与极端天气事件有关。这些早期预警信号包括海洋表面温度的变化或主要洋流（如墨西哥湾流）位置的变化。海洋在气候和天气方面最著名的作用是作为热量和水分的储存库。海洋储存的热量是大气的1000倍。夏季储存在海洋中的热量会缓和冬季的温度，而在夏季，巨大的海洋热容量确保海洋温度的上升幅度小于陆地地区，这意味着夏季海洋会使周围陆地的气候变冷。这种海洋效应在英国、欧洲和美国西北部的气候中表现得尤为明显，这些地区的冬天比类似纬度的其他地区更温暖，夏天更凉爽。北大西洋的水汽是影响欧洲的大部分降水的来源。最近一个突出的例子是，2013年底至2014年初，一段非常不稳定的天气导致了英国大范围的洪水。海洋和大气通过将热带地区的热量输送到高纬度地区，共同缩小了低纬度和高纬度之间的温差。在大西洋中，一种被称为经向翻转环流（MOC）的环流以超过1000太瓦（TW）的速率向北输送热量——相当于100万个平均规模的核电站产生的能量。这种热量输送导致西欧全年额外变暖，西欧的平均温度高于美国西北部类似纬度的海洋性气候。在中纬度地区，来自北大西洋的热量和水分被主要的西风（特别是北大西洋风暴路径）带到欧洲和欧亚大陆。在ODYSEA中，我们将研究海洋环流的变化如何调节海洋和陆地之间的大气交换。研究表明，墨西哥湾暖流的蜿蜒影响了北大西洋风暴形成的关键区域的大气。MOC也被证明是高度可变的，可能对海洋表面温度产生影响。这影响了释放到海洋上方大气的热量，也影响了这些热量被带到大陆的效率和方向。国家海洋局最近进行的一项研究表明，海洋表面温度的异常是导致2010年12月极端寒冷的大气条件发展的关键。在这些异常的海洋表面温度之前，2009年出现了一个特别弱的MOC。在ODYSEA中，我们将确定以前影响欧洲和英国的极端天气（例如，2005年、2007年和2012年的潮湿夏季，2003年夏季和2006年7月的热浪）是否可以确定类似的海洋影响。重点将放在更好地了解海洋如何影响大气，进而影响我们的天气和气候。目前的知识有力地表明，海洋在数月至数年的时间尺度上影响着欧洲天气和气候的变化，但其潜在的机制还远未完全了解。这阻碍了对这些事件的预测和归因。ODYSEA将通过使用英国现有的最先进的海洋和大气模型，以及分析英国气象局运行的最新季节到十年预测系统的数据，缩小我们对英国/欧洲天气和气候变化的理解差距。